Overbetting

[TPowell]

Valuable lesson learned today by myself. Had a break even day in college basketball unfortunately after a bad break in a couple games. Instead of being happy and watching football for fun I steam with Baltimore and then chase with Atlanta

Lesson: Stick to what you know best/have a model of

[sideloaded]

What model do you have?

[TPowell]

my power rating model of college basketball of basically every team outside of a few

[Chugs]

Should have stuck with the steam on GB

[sideloaded]

my power rating model of college basketball of basically every team outside of a few

Does your power rating take into account the spread?

[onlooker]

Never add on.

[TPowell]

yeah, it's a general number. I'd say over 90% of the lines that come out are within a couple points of my model.

[Reload]

Happens all the time, TPowell. Takes discipline to put a losing day behind and remember there will be a lot more opportunities. We're here for you - better to let steam off here and you'll get through it.

[sideloaded]

yeah, it's a general number. I'd say over 90% of the lines that come out are within a couple points of my model.

I dont know man shouldn't you be posting in the think tank if you're smart enough to build a model that good?

[TPowell]

think tank= line shopper/math guys
players talk= venting/fun talk
sports forums= posting plays/helping others out


My model is about my knowledge of the game, no real genius math at all

[sideloaded]

Isn't a model all math?

[doublej95]

happens to all of us even when we know better. just have to shake it off and move on.

[jjgold]

College Hoops is for suckers

It does everyone in

You cannot predict performance of kids

[Glitch]

also a problem can be betting on a good team or player against one you dont know too well just based on the merits of the good team. as opposed to having a good read on both opponents.

[str]

See people bet more because it is the playoffs all the time. Never really understood that.Lines are tighter,both teams have full focus and high emotion.
No edge,and double your bet.
I just don't see the logic.

[franklu]

What model?