If a system is doing really well over 50-100 plays, is it likely to fall apart?

[eddie0vedder]

hey peeps, i am pretty new to all this and need some expert advice. I have been tracking back the last month of nba looking at various ways to bet and i have come up with 2 systems that look pretty good. In the last 4 weeks one is 51-21 71% and the other 70-39 64% (this one i tracked back a month of NCAAB and it was 59% over 300 plays). I am strongly considering adding to my bankroll and starting to use these 2 systems but i am afraid they will start going the wrong way on me. I cant go any further backwards as the teams need to have at least 10 games played.

Is 1 month of data enough or should i track another month and then if its still going good start playing?

[Hoja Verdes]

Any system needs to have 1000 plays minimum, or else you are better off flipping a coin. And its not like 1000 is some magic number, you may still be coinflipping even then.

[louis.ana]

Most systems are streaky, so it's best to manage your money right.
Not sure how many plays you have a day, but I would recommend 1%-2% of bankroll (1% for many, 2% for a few)

Also, you should take into account what part of the season you are playing.. we are basically 2-3 months in.
Same system may not be so reliable at the end of the season.

[boneheaded1]

As a system guy myself. I have no issues with systems. Start with a single amount, don't go balls out or anything, an amount that won't hurt should you lose it. Adherence to the system is key. Deviation will skew your measurement of the system over time. The biggest problem I have with systems is staying within the system. If you lose and system goes bankrupt, then keep tracking without the cash. Don't pour good money after bad.