Is it profitable to middle a game like tonight?

**sickler** · 12-09-10, 08:21 PM

If you wagered the same on both sides, it's only profitable if it middles. Otherwise you're out money.

Unless you're looking for stats on how often a game lands on 3?

**Steady Stressin** · 12-09-10, 08:36 PM

yeah I essentially have 10 risked to win 200 if it lands on 3

I wanna know how often that happens, I found 8.5% online but it wasn't backed by anything

Tonight's game aside, I'm just curious in betting the NFL if 3 is such a critical number that one should always shoot for a middle when the -2.5, +3.5 opportunity presents itself.

**sharpcat** · 12-09-10, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by Steady Stressin

I bet the opener at -2.5 -110 and then today +3.5 -110

I bet the -2.5 with the intentions of betting the titans if and when the public pushed it to 3.5, however I'm just curious as to how profitable a play like this really is... anyone?

You are risking $10 to win $200 and teams favored to win by 3 win by 3 just under 10% of the time.

This play is +EV.

**Bostongambler** · 12-09-10, 08:38 PM

3 is a good number to hit on..obvious

**brxbmbers42** · 12-09-10, 08:41 PM

worked for me in the saints 9ers monday night game earlier in yr. bought saints down to 2.5 for game. and then took 9ers second half which equaled 9ers +3.5. saints won by 3. cleaned up for over 2k. not sure how often middles really cash tho. have only ever hit 2 or 3.

**Steady Stressin** · 12-09-10, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

You are risking $10 to win $100 and teams favored to win by 3 win by 3 just under 10% of the time.

This play is slightly -EV.

110 to win 100 on Colts -2.5
110 to win 100 on Titans +3.5

If Colts win by 3 or more = +100 Colts, -110 Titans = -10 Total
If Colts win by 2, 1, or lose outright= -110 Colts +100 Titans = -10 Total
If Colts Win by 3 = +100 Colts, +100 Titans = +200 Total

The most I can lose is 10, and I can only hit 200 if it lands on the -3

so I'm laying 10 (most I can lose), to win 200 which is essentially 20-1, no?

**RonPaul2008** · 12-09-10, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

You are risking $10 to win $200 and teams favored to win by 3 win by 3 just under 10% of the time.

This play is slightly +EV.

A 3 middle for 20 cents in the NFL is much more then slightly profitable.
A 3 side in worth 20 cents and a middle is worth 40 cents.

**sharpcat** · 12-09-10, 09:43 PM

Originally posted by Steady Stressin

110 to win 100 on Colts -2.5
110 to win 100 on Titans +3.5

If Colts win by 3 or more = +100 Colts, -110 Titans = -10 Total
If Colts win by 2, 1, or lose outright= -110 Colts +100 Titans = -10 Total
If Colts Win by 3 = +100 Colts, +100 Titans = +200 Total

The most I can lose is 10, and I can only hit 200 if it lands on the -3

so I'm laying 10 (most I can lose), to win 200 which is essentially 20-1, no?

Edited my post right before you posted this I apologize I was using numbers for a half middle

**d2bets** · 12-09-10, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

You are risking $10 to win $200 and teams favored to win by 3 win by 3 just under 10% of the time.

This play is slightly +EV.

How is that only "slightly +EV"? He's should win almost 1 in 10 but needs to only win 1 in 21. If he risks $10 100 times he is going to win $2,000 and lose $800. He risks a total of $1,000 ($10*100) but expects a profit of $1,200 ($2,000 - $800).

That's slight?

**sharpcat** · 12-09-10, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by RonPaul2008

A 3 middle for 20 cents in the NFL is much more then slightly profitable.
A 3 side in worth 20 cents and a middle is worth 40 cents.

Again I edited my post I accidentally used numbers from a half middle and originally stated that a half middle would be "slightly" -EV. I realized after re-reading the post and adjusted my numbers but forgot to remove the word "slightly".

I apologize and I will edit the post again

**d2bets** · 12-09-10, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Again I edited my post I accidentally used numbers from a half middle and originally stated that a half middle would be "slightly" -EV. I realized after re-reading the post and adjusted my numbers but forgot to remove the word "slightly".

I apologize and I will edit the post again

No problem man!

**sharpcat** · 12-09-10, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

How is that only "slightly +EV"? He's should win almost 1 in 10 but needs to only win 1 in 21. If he risks $10 100 times he is going to win $2,000 and lose $800. He risks a total of $1,000 ($10*100) but expects a profit of $1,200 ($2,000 - $800).

That's slight?

Post was edited