Time to go Square (Temporarily)???

**Positron** · 12-09-10, 11:32 AM

Good post.

**EDDIE MONEY LINE** · 12-09-10, 11:59 AM

it's sad, but sometimes its true

**EDDIE MONEY LINE** · 12-09-10, 12:00 PM

so u know they gotta be on the colts 2night

**EDDIE MONEY LINE** · 12-09-10, 12:01 PM

and the other squarest play has to be georgetown

**mcbaseball10** · 12-09-10, 12:04 PM

I have a buddy that never bets and always calls or texts and tells me about a lock. I will take his wagers and bet the other side the majority of the time. I have never had to pay him until this football season. College bowl season is when you fade the hell out of your friends. Following reverse line movement for college bowl season has been very profitable over the last few years.

**RudyRuetigger** · 12-09-10, 12:43 PM

if the squares lost every day/week/month, no sportsbook would be in business

**Joe Sharp** · 12-09-10, 01:03 PM

Yeah, Rudy you are right. I know Overs and Favorites hit too. It just makes me sick to see guys that are willing to play an Action Reverse on 2 BAD Lines WIN. Both lines were about 3 points off. It didn't matter.

haha....

Yes Eddie... They are Huge on Indy tonight and They've already played the Pats for Sunday.

**rfr3sh** · 12-09-10, 01:06 PM

happens to me too, my friends asks for picks cuz they know I win lots, but recently its more of a crapshoot
but just give it time

**freeVICK** · 12-09-10, 01:41 PM

same here. my friends are as square as they come. they only bet ranked teams, favorites and overs. while i try to bet according to RLM, and other sharp strategies..... well they are up HUGE this year, while im losing my ass. i keep telling myself its time to go square too, but i know the minute i change my betting style the tides will turn...

**slimpickins** · 12-09-10, 01:50 PM

sometimes the more you know, the more you overthink what might be as simple as picking the superior team.

**idrinkpbr** · 12-09-10, 01:50 PM

great post

**str** · 12-09-10, 01:54 PM

Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.
Stay true to what you know.
It's not a sprint.It's a marathon.

**freeVICK** · 12-09-10, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by slimpickins

sometimes the more you know, the more you overthink what might be as simple as picking the superior team.

maybe so. maybe their picks are truly the sharp side, but its more than that. besides betting auburn, oregon, boise, tcu and the overs EVERY SINGLE WEEK. they also parlay everything and bet 1h as well. and if they lose the 1h, they just double up on the 2h, and alway seem to cover. if they lose all bets on an early game, they simple triple up on a late game. THEY ALWAYS win, and it makes me sick. these are my friends, but sometimes i honestly hope they lose...

**Flight** · 12-09-10, 02:02 PM

Joe, don't go to the dark side. Square players always give the winnings back. They'll continue to play bad lines and it will catch up to them (maybe not this season, but eventually).

I always compare sports betting to black jack, because black jack is well understood. In black jack, if you are able to play basic strategy, you have an expected return of about -1%. If you count cards, you can get that to 0%. Some get it above 0%. It takes thousands of hands and hundreds of shoes for this to become apparent. I have grinded away on blackjack for 8 hours at a time before with no return (and no loss). Meanwhile drunk college fools will come up, bet $50, show 12 against 16, double down, and win. It happens. On average, more players lose a shitload while few players make a small profit.

The same will hold for sports betting. We are playing a -4.5% game, looking for ways to bring that edge to 0%. Meanwhile joe public could be making a killing, or getting killed.

Stick to your guns, stay disciplined, manage your risk, and accept that sometimes you will work hard for no return.

**illfuuptn** · 12-09-10, 02:04 PM

Alright. You can start by taking the colts tonight while I bet the Titans like a responsible pro.

**freeVICK** · 12-09-10, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by illfuuptn

Alright. You can start by taking the colts tonight while I bet the Titans like a responsible pro.

no doubt my friends are on the colts tonight. one of them even told me to "put everything i have" on indi... and the line we have is colts -4.... square as fukkk, but they win every week

**Jessica** · 12-09-10, 02:09 PM

You'll always end up either scraping a profit doing that or losing. Just like the square play in NCAAB was Mich. St/Texas/Missouri yet they didn't cover.

**Joe Sharp** · 12-09-10, 02:10 PM

Nice Post Flight! I'm definitely not going over to the Dark Side! haha. I know longterm I'll win and they'll lose. The past couple of months have just been frustrating like last night watching my buddies celebrating. What can I say I'm a SORE LOSER!

For now I'm gonna lower my limits a bit and await NFL playoffs and NCAAB conference play. That's when the books will take all the square money back (I hope).

**Joe Sharp** · 12-09-10, 02:12 PM

Whoa.... I'm just gonna start tailing Jessica's NCAAB Plays! Nice record Jess

**illfuuptn** · 12-09-10, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by Joe Sharp

Whoa.... I'm just gonna start tailing Jessica's NCAAB Plays! Nice record Jess

No doubt. Btw Joe are you going to take my challenge or not? I want to put my sbr points back into my regular account if you aren't accepting so let me know.

**Joe Sharp** · 12-09-10, 03:53 PM

I'll check the challenge out tonight.... if I like the rules maybe i'll accept for the heck of it. The only reason I don't typically accept challenges is that I don't play nearly enough games per/week, etc. I do what I can to make a profit each week and that's that. No "challenge" will accurately dipict what my actual abilities are.

That said, I'll take a look. Maybe I accept for some fun... and possible points.

**james4512** · 12-09-10, 04:27 PM

I agree to a certain extent I've also noticed my friends who are complete morons winning at a much higher volume this year but the thing is stay sharp but don't try to be too sharp for your own good. Perfect example was falcons vs bucs everyone that has a 25$ parlay card is like give me the falcons!!!! While most sharps were on bucs instead of trying to be sharp just lay off the game there's always several dozen games on the board so try and lay off the complete square/sharp side

**Joe Sharp** · 12-10-10, 04:13 PM

I'm feeling a little better today! Same 2 guys lost on Indy last night while I cashed Temple in NCAAB. They told me I was crazy.... Let's get back on track!! hhahaha

**boneheaded1** · 12-10-10, 05:00 PM

Ok, I'm just an amatuer compared to a lot of you. But I've played poker as a mediocre player for years (hard to plug those final holes in your game that take you to the next level). Anyways, point is. What we all do is called gambling, not sure thing. Just like in poker you can make the perfect play and still lose it.

The problem is sometimes our confidence in our knowledge gets in the way and we overthink things and what looks good is us trying to prove how good we are. Whereas dart throwers or whatever bet history and momentem. And clean up. It all comes round.

Keep pluggin dude, you'll start to outperform again.

**BettingWizard** · 12-10-10, 06:40 PM

Your friends must have reloaded at least 10 times this year considering the public didnt win a single week in the NFL until week 10

**Joe Sharp** · 12-10-10, 07:19 PM

All I can tell you is that over the last 2 months they've killed it! They are PLUS 5k (minus whatever they lost on IND last night).

They called me up a while back (maybe week 9) and asked me if I know what a "Birdcage Bet" was. I was pretty sure I did but I looked it up to be sure... They said we are going to take Balt/SD/NYG. Again I said "you guys are retarded"... it's your money go ahead. At least you'll have some fun.

They hit the damn thing!!! I believe 2 out of the 3 were Road Favs... All chalk.

**Naz18** · 12-10-10, 07:24 PM

2 months is nothing...

**The Seer** · 12-10-10, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by Joe Sharp

The past couple of months have just been frustrating like last night watching my buddies celebrating.(I hope).

It's been pretty much the last month for me. I know it will turn around with the bowls getting here (or at least I hope so).

**boneheaded1** · 12-13-10, 12:10 AM

Dude. You guys are freakin me out. what the hell kind of plays are you making? I can't imagine what it's like to lose two weeks in a row (hasn't happened yet).