Square Question

**SportsBettingPro** · 12-01-10, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by Gamedaygator

First day, First Post

I am looking at a NFL game this week and want to see if someone can explain something. In the Bears v Lions game 97% of the total bets are on the Lions Money Line (meaning they think the Lions will win out right) but 88% of the the total bets are on the side of the Bears spread -3.5. This seems contradictory. How can this large of a percentage be on these 2 opposite "sides"?

Can someone explain what I am not understanding here?

Thanks

Gator

They are distinct propositions and thus will attract different bettign percentages. This is actually a quite common pattern with small favorites - people who like the favorite think they will definitely cover if they win and thus go with the spread (perceived better value), while people who like the dog think they will win outright and thus go with the ML (perceived better value). In other words, no one thinks the favorite will win outright but not cover.

**hhsilver** · 12-01-10, 11:40 AM

Also , i think it's too early in the week to assess these %'s , especially ML. Do you also see how many total bets these %'s are based on? Wait until many more bets are made and see where the %'s are then.

**pavyracer** · 12-01-10, 11:42 AM

where are you seeing 97% of bets on Lions ML?

**Gamedaygator** · 12-01-10, 11:59 AM

This is from SportsbookSpy. As of 11:30 this morning here is the break down on the Chi/Det game.

# of bets 5198
88% (4,574 wagers) are on Chicago -3
97% (5,042 wagers) are on Detroit money line

**Smoke** · 12-01-10, 12:07 PM

Either way don't bet the lions, they are down to their 3rd string QB Drew Stanton. Shaun king has a splint on his finger of throwing hand

**mcbaseball10** · 12-01-10, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by hhsilver

Also , i think it's too early in the week to assess these %'s , especially ML. Do you also see how many total bets these %'s are based on? Wait until many more bets are made and see where the %'s are then.

+1..wait until later in the week to draw any conclusions (if any) about the %'s.