Quick NCAAB question

[Data]

you seem to have no clue on modeling methodology.

This very well sums up my perception of you.

Surprise me though. Prove you have a winning model.

Right, I understand that the only way you can get +EV model plays is getting them from modelers like Wrecktangle (or myself). I have to disappoint you though this time as I have no intentions of neither selling to nor sharing my plays with you.

[MJFtheGenius]

Data why do you post here if you have no intentions posting anything to share??

[pavyracer]

Data why do you post here if you have no intentions posting anything to share??

Why do you post here since you don't share any of your secrets of cleaning up the books?

[Data]

Data why do you post here if you have no intentions posting anything to share??

Quite in reverse, I post here because I want to share as I believe I have something to share. I am disappointed that you have not noticed despite me answering your question(s) in the past.

[sideloaded]

I haven't seen any details of any model you have made. I haven't seen any plays you have generated.

You claim you have a winning model in a major league. Based on the limited statements you have made, you seem to have no clue on modeling methodology. Surprise me though. Prove you have a winning model.

Put up or shut up Data.

[Justin7]

This very well sums up my perception of you.



Right, I understand that the only way you can get +EV model plays is getting them from modelers like Wrecktangle (or myself). I have to disappoint you though this time as I have no intentions of neither selling to nor sharing my plays with you.

Is there any basis for this "understanding"? I don't recall getting a play from you, and I have never plagiarized Wreck's plays as my own (although our models often agreed). Or is your statement another instance of you making up stuff as you go along? Will you continue to post falsities as fact with no basis? It is somewhat pointless to "discuss" things with you when (in this thread) your statements are ridiculous, but there is no cogent argument against them, as you never back anything you say with facts.

[durito]

People with winning models aren't giving them away or selling them in a book.

[Justin7]

People with winning models aren't giving them away or selling them in a book.

Do you really think either of these is the objective of authoring a book?

[ericthegangster]

my favorites will 100%

[durito]

Do you really think either of these is the objective of authoring a book?

I wasn't really responding to you, but to the idiots above asking data to give them something.

Do you really bet those models in your book? They aren't exactly complicated. Even I know all of that stuff.

[Justin7]

I wasn't really responding to you, but to the idiots above asking data to give them something.

Do you really bet those models in your book? They aren't exactly complicated. Even I know all of that stuff.

Yes, I bet on models very similar to what is in them. You're right, they are not complicated. But they're more work than most bookmakers do on openers. The WNBA and MLB models do very well (in terms of total plays generated, and return). The NCAAF model has done very well, but doesn't generate many plays. The NFL one is marginal. You don't have to be that smart to beat openers or other smaller markets.

[Data]

Is there any basis for this "understanding"?

The basis is twofold.

1) Whatever you post on the subject matter is overwhelmingly nonsense.
2) You publically admitting on getting plays from Wrecktangle.
(2b) Whatever Wrecktangle posts does make sense which means that anyone following his plays makes sense as well.

[Justin7]

The basis is twofold.

1) Whatever you post on the subject matter is overwhelmingly nonsense.
2) You publically admitting on getting plays from Wrecktangle.
(2b) Whatever Wrecktangle posts does make sense as you well as must anyone following his plays.

Data,

I'm surprised you can't understand most of my postings. If you are an experienced modeler, this lack of understanding really surprises me.

Your delusional scenario ignores the content of 99% of my posts -- that I do my own work. Incidentally, Wrecktangle hasn't done an MLB model (to my knowledge). Does your scenario presume I plagiarize this from an unknown source as well?

Nevermind. As always, you ignore facts and reality. Each reply of yours continues to generate new fictions and false unsupported suppositions. I'm not sure what your agenda is, but I'll try very hard to restrain from replying to you in the future until you become factual.

[sideloaded]

Data,

I'm surprised you can't understand most of my postings. If you are an experienced modeler, this lack of understanding really surprises me.

Your delusional scenario ignores the content of 99% of my posts -- that I do my own work. Incidentally, Wrecktangle hasn't done an MLB model (to my knowledge). Does your scenario presume I plagiarize this from an unknown source as well?

Nevermind. As always, you ignore facts and reality. Each reply of yours continues to generate new fictions and false unsupported suppositions. I'm not sure what your agenda is, but I'll try very hard to restrain from replying to you in the future until you become factual.

Well put, and no I was not asking for Data's imaginary model, just some proof that he has one.

[dimon]

And I was given a warning to tell this dude to shut his mouth...this Data dude thiking that he is god or something...very funny fella

[sideloaded]

And I was given a warning to tell this dude to shut his mouth...this Data dude thiking that he is god or something...very funny fella

He's not god, he's from star trek.

[benjy]

He's not god, he's from star trek.

Perhaps Data's vitriol is due to Justin's BSG avatar. Trekkies get carried away sometimes.

[pavyracer]

Data uncovered the big scam in BTP with the ghost accounts. If he can do that I'd listen to what he says regarding mathematical models.

[benjy]

Data uncovered the big scam in BTP with the ghost accounts. If he can do that I'd listen to what he says regarding mathematical models.

I'm not sure that follows unless he used mathematical models to uncover the scam.

[Sawyer]

Here’s some data from my database for last three seasons plus first few weeks this year

favorites of…….

27.5-30 pts 45-0 (100%)
30+ pts 55-0 (100%)

It's true?

Then parlay all 27.5+ favourites for 100-0 record?

[jgilmartin]

I don't think it's fair to ask someone to post evidence of a successful model (as the only actual evidence of it would be the model itself). I doubt many of us who have put any significant amount of time into building and testing our models would be willing to do that.

That said, I have read Justin's book and while I haven't used any of his models from it, I do use models of a similar simplicity to beat openers and smaller markets (actually it's mostly openers IN smaller markets).

Justin, on the topic of your book, I remember in the baseball section you mentioned you hadn't yet come up with a method of integrating current season statistics with your preseason player projections. I'm assuming you have tried a weighted average (weighted based on how much of the season has past) between the two? Hard to imagine that wouldn't improve the model, but I'd be interested to hear your results.

[Highland]

I'm not a modeler, but I'm not understanding why you can't use pointspreads to help you determine the % of time you need to find the winner of that particular game, or games in that pointspread range. Rather than just saying you need to find the winner 75% of the time for all CBB games.

[Justin7]

jgil,

A season has all sorts of noise for a player.

2 months into a season, which of these two is a better predictor of a player's future batting average?
1. His season to date batting average, or
2. The league batting average?

[Dark Horse]

People with winning models aren't giving them away or selling them in a book.

True in general, but not as absolute statement. Possibly scenario. Why would those who have made their money, towards the end of their lives, not share their findings with the academic community? Who better equipped to help further probability theory than those with a long history of successfully putting their money where their mouth is? Such work would have to be of extremely high quality, and the only ones naturally motivated to reach the required degree of expertise are professional gamblers.

As to Data, in this thread, its topic is so insignificant that he is obviously here to nitpick. The psychology behind that is rather simple, and should be easily discernible to all.

[saratoga1927]

Amen and Amen.

[pokernut9999]

Why is this still in the think tank ?

[pokernut9999]

People with winning models aren't giving them away or selling them in a book.

[sideloaded]

Pretty sure data hasn't responded because Justin tuned his ass up just like monkeyf0cker. You don't mess with Justin. He doesn't play around.

[dwaechte]

As to Data, in this thread, its topic is so insignificant that he is obviously here to nitpick. The psychology behind that is rather simple, and should be easily discernible to all.

This.


Data,

I don't doubt you have a good grasp of both simple and complex aspects of handicapping, betting markets, and probability.

But when you imply with such confidence that the best way to assess strength of schedule is by using past point spreads, I think it's time to broaden your view of logical approaches.

[Thremp]

J7 moderates like Stalin rules.

[Data]

But when you imply with such confidence that the best way to assess strength of schedule is by using past point spreads, I think it's time to broaden your view of logical approaches.

I certainly would not mind doing so. If you can offer help I would appreciate this. Don't just take, thus far, a pointless jab at my shortcomings, list your reasons.

[dwaechte]

I certainly would not mind doing so. If you can offer help I would appreciate this. Don't just take, thus far, a pointless jab at my shortcomings, list your reasons.

Fair enough, I'll shut my mouth. I should've stayed out of this, it's over my head.

[sideloaded]

Data glad you didn't get 86'd by J7. He really has went easy on you.

[CFA]

jgil,

A season has all sorts of noise for a player.

2 months into a season, which of these two is a better predictor of a player's future batting average?
1. His season to date batting average, or
2. The league batting average?

Why on earth would it be limited to one of these two options?

[jgilmartin]

jgil,

A season has all sorts of noise for a player.

2 months into a season, which of these two is a better predictor of a player's future batting average?
1. His season to date batting average, or
2. The league batting average?

I understand your point but surely the predictive significance of current season data lies somewhere between "flawlessly predictive" and "totally insignificant" ?