When did No Juice start offering -105 ?

[BAUS]

I don't know how they will stay in business offering this with 20% bonuses, but I like it.

BAUS

[David]

Must have just started today.

[pags11]

not too sure about these guys either...

[bigboydan]

i have no clue when they started Baus.

[Mudcat]

Another high-risk start-up op. Between these crazy offers and their use of shills around the forums, I am getting an extreme vibe of desperation from this book.

I wouldn't dream of sending money there before the Super Bowl. Maybe if they're still in business in mid-summer and have kept their noses clean, I'll think about them.

[JC]

They are offering a bonus on top of the 105, 108, and no juice pricing. That's a recipe for disaster if I ever read one. 105 and 20% is a solid loser for the house, 108 and 20% is a slight winner before expenses, but probably not enough to pay the light bill. It earns them about $22 for every $1,000 deposited before expenses. Add in a couple of no juice games and this is nothing but a negative expectation for the house.

It takes no skill to sell dollar bills for 90 cents.

[bigboydan]

not to mention with the superbowl right around the corner. it all adds up to be one scarry thought, as well as a potential mess at some point.

[pags11]

I agree dan...I'm not sure this business model can hold up...

[marc]

It's a 20% signup bonus, after that it's just 10%. Max bonus is $500. And the roll is calcualted using the lesser of the win/risk amount. And nojuice games don't count towards the roll. And most people who would likely sign up already have. So I don't think they will take too big of hit in the short run wiht this promo, but I'd be curious to see what thier game plan is for the rest of the year.

[magnavox]

Agree with marc here. I guess everyone seems to forget that Pinnacle also offers $500 signup bonus and has similar juice.

[David]

Agree with marc here. I guess everyone seems to forget that Pinnacle also offers $500 signup bonus and has similar juice.

Pinnacle can do this because they get big volume and have sharp lines. No Juice is a very low volume book.

[magnavox]

You're right David. It all depends on how much of a bankroll No Juice has to sustain this model

[bigboydan]

they have sustained it so far, but lets see how they do after superbowl sunday. that should give us all a better idea on how stable this book might be.

[JC]

At 20% and all -105 games and the rollover calculated on the lesser amount (a deceptive tactic, I'll save the discussion for another day), for every $1,000 deposited they will LOSE $50. That's before money transfer fees, the light bill, the staff, the software (if they have to pay royalties to the software provider) etc. That's the theoretical. Could be better if numbers fall their way but equally possible it could be worse.

At 10% and -105 with the same rollover requirements, 5x, lesser amount they make $37.50 before expenses for every $1,000 deposited, bonused, and rolled over.

At 20% and -108 with the same rollover requirements, 5x, lesser amount they make $40 before expenses for every $1,000 deposited, bonused, and rolled over.

At 10% and -108 with the same rollover requirements, 5x, lesser amount they make $120 before expenses for every $1,000 deposited, bonused, and rolled over.

This isn't rocket science.

[tacomax]

This isn't rocket science.

Correct - it's customer acquisition.

Enterprises in consumer sectors will buy their customers to some extent, taking an initial hit which they will offset against the long-term profitability of the individual customer.

It really depends on which people they are attracting. If they are simply attracting people to take the 20% and never come back they'll never make any money, but you can use the same argument against even the Pinnacles of the industry.

[JC]

Butdo they ever acquire the customer or are they just renting him?

If your players are only there for the bonus, once you stop offering the bonus, they will move on to the next offer. So they never really acquire the customer.

They need to distiguish themself beyond their bonus. In the meantime anyone who plays there is taking a bigger gamble than their picks.

[SBR_John]

It takes no skill to sell dollar bills for 90 cents.

LOL, thats a good one JC. Well, we saw this with Oklahoma Sports and following the script they went down.

One problem about these models is that when they try to push them to being profitable, ie raising the juice and lowering the bonus, the player base dissapears.

[tacomax]

Butdo they ever acquire the customer or are they just renting him?

If your players are only there for the bonus, once you stop offering the bonus, they will move on to the next offer. So they never really acquire the customer.

Just my point. It's not the offer that is bad per se but it's the type of people that that they are attracting by that offer.

Personally, I think they're going to have problems since the customers they are getting are not the customers a book needs. They're surely getting a very high percentage of forum customers who are going to use them as their next bonus stop. Then you're going to get the arb scalpers who pound the no-juice games and the -105 lines which are very slow to update to market movement.

[BuddyBear]

someone keep us updated.

[Brick Tamland]

Competing with betonstars for who can be the biggest costa rican Santa Claus is hard work. These books sound like divorced parents trying to win over the kids. If you come with me ill give you a bonus, reduce juce and let you eat ice cream before dinner. No one respects this shat. but like jay said... they will take it until the parent realizes you aint going to be living with them unless they have a special on the weekends.

[bigboydan]

It all depends on how much of a bankroll No Juice has to sustain this model

thats the million dollar question right there.