1. #1
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Does intuition work in gambling?

    I lost $500 playing Pai Gow Tiles, so I went over to a $100 minimum Baccarat table to recover the loss.

    A young Chinese couple sat down just as we were about to start a new shoe and they both bought in for $5,000 each.

    The man was really good and he lost only 1 hand out of some 9 or 10 hands that he played and he won almost $6,000. He wouldn't bet every hand but whenever he bet he won pretty comfortably and his bet size was at least $500 up to $1,500.

    The woman on the other hand freaking lost every hand ($400 to $500 bet for 7 to 8 hands plus $100 dragon bet per round) and she had less than $1,000 left at the end. What's funny was that the man NEVER bet when she picked a side first and bet out first.

    Near the end, they were arguing in Chinese and I'm sure the man was telling her that she sucked in baccarat and that she should have just followed him instead of doing whatever she did. Had she done that, she would also have made $6,000+. I don't blame him for getting mad since whenever he bet, she didn't bet and stayed out. What's up with that? I thought that women have better intuition but obviously not this woman.

    Half way through the shoe, it was obvious to me that the man was very good in baccarat and my head said to bet whatever he bet and never bet against him. Had I done that, I would have made at least $3,000+ in a matter of only 10 minutes. Instead, I won just enough to recover my loss from the Tiles and about $50 profit because of the stupid 5% commission on the banker bets.

    It was also obvious to me that the girlfriend was just horrible playing baccarat and therefore my head said to bet opposite of whatever she bet. Had I done that, I would have easily made more than the man.

    I don't know why I don't listen to my head more often.

    Something about my intuition that's more right than not and I need to train my head to listen to it more often and follow through with it. Or, does it matter in sportsbetting?

  2. #2
    Snowball
    Snowball's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-15-09
    Posts: 30,018
    Betpoints: 5220

    In sports, that's going to depend upon what your "intuition" is based on.

    There are so many angles. Find one that your intutition succeeds with, and, like that Baccarat player,
    pick your posts and employ bankroll mgmt.

  3. #3
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    In sports, that's going to depend upon what your "intuition" is based on.

    There are so many angles. Find one that your intutition succeeds with, and, like that Baccarat player,
    pick your posts and employ bankroll mgmt.
    I think my intuition is based on what's in my head of what I've seen and experienced in the past and it tells me subconsciously what the right thing is.

    Things just pop up in my head telling me what I should do in certain situations. Then, when I think about it, my conscious mind takes over and tells me otherwise which ends up being the wrong end.

    Instead of listening to my inner voice, I analyze things and they end up being wrong.

    What comes up in my head first is usually the right thing to do. It's not always right but mostly right.

    For example, I watched a couple of USC games and Notre Dame games.

    First thought that came to my head is that the USC defense is just atrocious and therefore unload on Notre Dame.

    Never followed through with it and what happened? Notre Dame crushed USC. That's just an example which happens to be sportsbetting.

    It's happening in other parts of my life where I have to make decisions and I just feel that I should just always listen to my first thoughts and don't overthink things.

    Think Long, Think Wrong

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2hOuZWGqwk

    I don't think intuition is going to help me with the game of baccarat, but I swear, when I'm playing my Tiles game and when I see new players sit down, my head tells me whether we are going to win or get killed.

    What's strange is I'm mostly right about those assessments. No clue why, but it happens.

  4. #4
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,371
    Betpoints: 9488

    You are more likely to notice when your gut feeling was correct.

    That can make you feel like your intuition is correct more often than it is in reality.

  5. #5
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 93,847
    Betpoints: 7012

    Every lean wins.

  6. #6
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Ok, this just popped into my head.

    Sam Houston is 0-6. FIU isn't that much better but they are 3-4.

    Initial thought was why is SH favored when they haven't even won a game? Just for that, make a bet on SH.

    Then, I start analyzing looking at their past games and what not.

    I should just bet SH and get over with it. It's 50/50 no matter how much I analyze and pick a side.

  7. #7
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Every lean wins.
    I don't know about "Every", but I would say leans win more than not.

  8. #8
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    You are more likely to notice when your gut feeling was correct.

    That can make you feel like your intuition is correct more often than it is in reality.
    You are probably right about that.

    I am going to keep track of my intuition record and see if it's right more than not.

  9. #9
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Quote Originally Posted by DJK View Post
    Ok, this just popped into my head.

    Sam Houston is 0-6. FIU isn't that much better but they are 3-4.

    Initial thought was why is SH favored when they haven't even won a game? Just for that, make a bet on SH.

    Then, I start analyzing looking at their past games and what not.

    I should just bet SH and get over with it. It's 50/50 no matter how much I analyze and pick a side.
    SH was playing so well until that pick. At least it wasn't a pick 6. LOL

  10. #10
    asiagambler
    asiagambler's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-23-17
    Posts: 6,299
    Betpoints: 32442

    If you know a lot about the subject then your intuition should point you in the right direction more often than not

  11. #11
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 82,822
    Betpoints: 11262

    I got a feeling!

  12. #12
    Easy-Rider 66
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 32,954
    Betpoints: 4709

    A vibe

  13. #13
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Big Fat Loss on SH.

    Intuition pick record is 0-1.

    But honestly, my true intuition is pick the better team to win and I knew absolutely nothing about these teams. So, that was a dart throw pick and a stupid loss.

    However, I mentioned on another thread that when DK and FD are on the opposite sides with the higher than -110 juice, DK wins when they are higher.

    DK was higher and they won. My intuition said to bet FIU based on what I saw with the DK/FD odds but didn't follow through with that one. Dohhh.

    No problem though since I won again at Caesars casino playing baccarat.

    I hate playing in a full table because I see a trend and it's a complete opposite of what everyone else at the table sees and bets.

    On one of the bets, I was the only one betting Player when everyone else bet Banker for a total of about $15,000 for them. The guy to the right of me alone bet $10,000 and lost.

    I told the dealer that the casino has a good racket going since they took in $14,900 on that round since I was the only winner with the smallest bet of $100.

  14. #14
    slapshot
    slapshot's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-07
    Posts: 1,192
    Betpoints: 23479

    intuition and gut feeling is the way to go....if you have deep knowledge about something the opinion about the outcome will evolve naturally.

    we have to accept that our intuition isn't 100% accurate consequently....having diciplin and a solid money management strategy should make up for the misinterpretation of a game.

    relying on stats, injuries, scheduling, etc etc should support your opinion but it shouldn't dictate what you bet on.

    having hard facts like stats and injuries generate the picks and disregard your feel for the game can work but my experience is that it's less successful.

    predicting human performance isn't completely a science....even though there's scientific component to it.

  15. #15
    str
    Nothing's easy
    str's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-12-09
    Posts: 9,809
    Betpoints: 68876

    Does intuition work in gambling?

    Like anything else, only when you win.

    Nothing will always work, some things will rarely work but find something that helps make it work for you enough to show a sustained profit and stick with it as long as it holds up.

    GL.

  16. #16
    trobin31
    trobin31's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-09-14
    Posts: 9,559
    Betpoints: 10070

    I had a dream last night Marvin Harrison jr was upset because he couldn’t make a catch and the game was over so now do I bet Penn state to upset OSU?

  17. #17
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Quote Originally Posted by trobin31 View Post
    I had a dream last night Marvin Harrison jr was upset because he couldn’t make a catch and the game was over so now do I bet Penn state to upset OSU?
    You know, my initial thought was that Penn State hasn't beaten anyone.

    Their defense seems legit since they haven't allowed anyone to score much except maybe WV.

    Regardless, I'm leaning towards OSU to kick their ass, but you have been right a lot lately, haven't you?

  18. #18
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Too close to game time, but DK vs FD juice thing is happening again for the James Madison vs Marshall game.

    FD has the higher juice -4.5-114 on James Madison while DK has the higher juice +4.5-112 on Marshall before the line moved to +5.5 at DK.

    If anything I will have to take Marshall +5.5 at DK.

    Just when I was ready to post this, damn thing moved to James Madison -3.5-112. What gives?

    Now FD and DK are both on James Madison as the higher juice and the bet percentage has flipped to Marshall at Action Network.

  19. #19
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Something is up with James Madison vs Marshall game because DK took it off the board when the game hasn't even started yet.

    Gee whiz, JM's line is jumping up and down like a yoyo at DK.

    It went from -3.5 to -6 and then back down to -3.5.

    That's a freaking messed up line movement.

  20. #20
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Screw with this bullshit line movement.

    I'm going to go play baccarat instead.

  21. #21
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Quote Originally Posted by DJK View Post
    You know, my initial thought was that Penn State hasn't beaten anyone.

    Their defense seems legit since they haven't allowed anyone to score much except maybe WV.

    Regardless, I'm leaning towards OSU to kick their ass, but you have been right a lot lately, haven't you?
    Bet OSU on ML and won. So, my intuition was right on this one.

  22. #22
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 82,822
    Betpoints: 11262

    I had a dream and I'm loading up...... ; )

  23. #23
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I had a dream and I'm loading up...... ; )
    What team was in your dream? Let me load up with you.

  24. #24
    TommieGunshot
    TommieGunshot's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-27-12
    Posts: 1,555
    Betpoints: 6350

    Quote Originally Posted by DJK View Post
    Something about my intuition that's more right than not and I need to train my head to listen to it more often and follow through with it. Or, does it matter in sportsbetting?
    What results do you have when gambling using this method compared to either other methods or expected results? Give it a large enough sample size and that is your answer.
    Points Awarded:

    Optional gave TommieGunshot 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  25. #25
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    What results do you have when gambling using this method compared to either other methods or expected results? Give it a large enough sample size and that is your answer.
    Something I've noticed is that the longer time I spend on capping more I lose.

    I seem to do better when taking whatever pops up into my head.

    I haven't kept track of how my intuition picks have fared in the past, but I will this year and see how they do.

    I made a bunch of bets today on college football games strictly based on whatever came up in my head instead of spending any time researching the teams, past history, etc, etc. I will post how they fared later tonight.

  26. #26
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,371
    Betpoints: 9488

    Every Tuesday look at a list of next week's NFL games and write down any that meet your gut feel standard, before you cap any games.

    And then try to forget about those as you research/cap games.

    I bet you find that your capped picks will beat your gut picks almost every week.

  27. #27
    DJK
    Gee Joon/Teen Bo Guaranteed Winner
    DJK's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 2,037
    Betpoints: 9111

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Every Tuesday look at a list of next week's NFL games and write down any that meet your gut feel standard, before you cap any games.

    And then try to forget about those as you research/cap games.

    I bet you find that your capped picks will beat your gut picks almost every week.
    That is a good suggestion. I will try that starting next week for both NCAAF and NFL.

  28. #28
    5mike5
    NA$CAR PSYCHIC
    5mike5's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-21-11
    Posts: 50,794
    Betpoints: 29456

    I always go with mine

  29. #29
    OldBill
    OldBill's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-21
    Posts: 5,892
    Betpoints: 5028

    yeah tnf had hot chick wnting me to fuyck her in her room felt bad about it but dayum she took it like a champ and i bet jaguars for $500 cash and smileddddd

  30. #30
    LongBall52
    LongBall52's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-14-20
    Posts: 1,319
    Betpoints: 2374

    My idea is to go with one system or another, just don't get caught in the doing back and forth thing. Better to just pass a game altogether...not easy to do.

  31. #31
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 82,822
    Betpoints: 11262

    I farted and smelled it a few days ago and suddenly out of no where in my mind I came up with a random winning sports bet pick, it was amazing!

    Made a fortune off that bet as I bet the house on it.

    Bought not one but two houses after. ; )

  32. #32
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,145
    Betpoints: 33529

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    You are more likely to notice when your gut feeling was correct.
    Got a hunch, bet a bunch.

  33. #33
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,145
    Betpoints: 33529

    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I farted and smelled it a few days ago and suddenly out of no where in my mind I came up with a random winning sports bet pick, it was amazing!

    Made a fortune off that bet as I bet the house on it.

    Bought not one but two houses after. ; )
    My man!

  34. #34
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 82,822
    Betpoints: 11262

    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    My man!
    Stevie! Looks like your dog farted and can produce some winning picks for you too!


  35. #35
    ByeShea
    ByeShea's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-30-08
    Posts: 7,647
    Betpoints: 11355

    Quote Originally Posted by DJK View Post
    Something about my intuition that's more right than not and I need to train my head to listen to it more often and follow through with it. Or, does it matter in sportsbetting?
    I just want to say that a gambler following an intuition has to be at the front of the slaughterhouse line. Has to be. With intuitions we don't even know exactly what we're listening to - we're just saving time that would normally be spent handicapping, really.

    The only guarantee in gambling is that if you don't bet, you can't lose.

12 Last
Top