[klemopixx]

After an abysmal 131-132-10 season (one game cancelled) it's time to wind it up for another season of shooting from the hip predictions. Each week I'll make my picks using the current lines at Scores and Odds at the time of the post. All picks not made before kickoff are considered losses and I'm not sure but that only came into play once last year when I was late on a Thursday pick.

My main idea behind this was the that I overthink my picks throughout the week and botch the bet on Sunday. Teams are what they are and my gut first choice is usually the best. Betting at a .500 clip isn't making anyone money. Let's hope it'a a better year.

[klemopixx]

Week one!

Thursaday Night special!

Lions vs (-6.5) Chiefs!

Sure the Lions are going to be a tough team this year but you give Andy Reid extra time to game plan and Big Red is usually gold. Wether it's the season opener or after a bye week, Andy has that team ready. Plus the season opener at home? I think they can score enough to keep it over a touchdown. Chiefs by a TD.

More to come before the weekend. GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!

FADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!

[klemopixx]

As you can see, placing a bet too early can be devastating. Rule of thumb says that I never change a pick after posting so I'm 0-1 for the year.

Here's the rest of the Week One action.

Panthers +3.5 over the Falcons LOSS

I'm thinking Bryce Young has a big first game, maybe not winning this outright but keeping it close. Need to see more of Desmond Ridder before I start betting on him. The Falcons have the better overall team but I'll go with the road dog here.

Houston vs -10 Baltimore WIN

Ravens will want Lamar to start the season with a bang so I'm expecting them to light it up for the home crowd. Ten points is an awful lot as it always leaves that backdoor cover open, but not today. I'm liking the Ravens here.

Bengals -1.5 at the Browns LOSS

Browns were looking good in the preseason but that means squat right now. It all depends on wether Burrow suits up or not. Right now? I'm thinking he does and that's enough to beat that spread on the road.

Jags -4.5 over the Colts WIN

Tough to pick against the home team in a division game but with Jacksonville is billing itself as a team that's capable of going deep in the playoffs. You have to beat a team with a rookie starter in his first game. Jags by a touchdown here.

Buccaneers at the -5.5 Vikings LOSS

Vikings should light it up at home because who knows what their defense is like this year. Baker Mayfield doesn't scare me much.

Titans +3 over the Saints WIN

Interesting game here as I'm wondering which offense will dominate more, the Titans running game or the Saints passing game? I'm thinking Tennesse controls the clock in the second half and grinds out a road win to start the season. The over (41.5) seems like a good pick too.

49ers -2.5 over the Steelers WIN

That defense needs to come up big with Kittle looking iffy right now. Will Brock Purdy continue his majic? Beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh is no small task but if you're going back to the NFC title game you're winning games like this. Niners by a FG.

Cardinals at the -7 Commanders LOSS

I know it's the first game but we'll see how well Sam Howell runs this offense. It's not like the Cardinals defense is a juggernaut so they should win this one easily. Commanders defense should set the tone early. Washington should roll.

Packers +1.5 over the Bears WIN

I like Jordan Love with this offense and I think he'll be better than most expect. Justin Fields will run crazy as usual, will he rise up now that he has some weapons? Packers still have a good defense. I think they squeak this one out late. Green Bay with the upset.

Raiders at -3.5 Broncos LOSS
A Russell Wilson comeback? We'll see about that but the Denver defense is still pretty good. Jimmy Garoppolo gets his shot with the Raiders offense. This should be a nasty division game. Broncos with the home win and cover.

Dolphins at the -3 Chargers LOSS

Miami starting the season on the Left Coast this year, in they can run the ball against that Charger defense then they have a shot. I'm not sure the Dolphins O-line is up to the task. It'll be up to Tua to win this one. My gut tells me the Chargers grind this one out for the home W.

Eagles -4 over the Patriots WIN

Birds have the more talented team here and even though it's Tom Brady Day in Foxborough, the Patriots will need a big defensive effort to stop Jalen Hurts. Birds by 10.

Rams at -4.5 Seahawks LOSS

No Cooper Kupp with a possible IR stint coming smells like the Rams might be tanking this year. Too early to tell. But it's not easy going into Seattle and scraping out a win. Too many question marks on the Rams to keep it close. Seahawks roll.

Cowboys -3.5 over the Giants WIN

A tough division matchup and I'd love to see the Cowboys get crushed but I'm not sure two rookie cornerbacks can handle Lamb and Co. here. Dallas by a TD.

Bills -3 over the Jets LOSS

I admit, I'm partial against Aaron Rodgers. I think the tank is empty here and he's just running on fumes. Two great defenses should keep this tight but I'm going with the Bills. Gut call here.


Good luck everyone, fade at your own risk!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

BOL Klemoid

[gauchojake]

Gl sir. .500 with some good bonuses picking every freaking game isn't bad.

[nyrb]

BOL man

[klemopixx]

YTD 7 - 9 Not the start I wanted.


Quite a first week in the NFL! Lots of surprises and it doesn't get any easier in Week 2




Thursday Night Football


Vikings +6.5 at the Eagles

My main lean here is the Vikings do NOT want to go 0-2 to start the year! Eagles are slightly banged up in the secondary, corner James Bradberry and safety Reed Blankenship are out along with LB Nakobe Dean which is not a good thing against the Vikings passing attack. Kenny Gainwell is also out but the Birds running backs are a next-man-up squad so I don't see it affecting that too much. Eagles are always tough at home and they might squeak this one out too but 6.5 seems too much for me. I'm taking the points with the Vikings.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Coming from a diehard Eagles fan I am surprised by this. No team wants to start 0-2, that doesn't mean that it won't happen! The Eagles roster is head and shoulders better than the Vikings. Philly also did not look great after going up 16-0 last week and Hurts made some mistakes(4th qtr fumble), I expect a spirited effort and them to come out and take care of business. Not to mention Kirk Cousins is beyond awful in primetime games and against teams above .500...I just don't think the Vikings are that good and they did it with smoke and mirrors last year, got every break and bounce and won every close game. Back to reality this year for Minnesota.

I will say that Philly has a few key injuries but I think they can withstand them due to their depth. I actually did not take the spread but have the Eagles in a numerous teasers and ML parlays. Maybe we can both win.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Klem you’re playing way too many games so I hope this is just for entertainment purposes only? Focus on 2-3 top plays

[gauchojake]

He's playing the entire season Philly! I don't think he's actually betting every game but I could be wrong.

[klemopixx]

You are correct Jake. I'm predicting every game with the spread to see where I end up at the end of the year.

[klemopixx]

Coming from a diehard Eagles fan I am surprised by this. No team wants to start 0-2, that doesn't mean that it won't happen! The Eagles roster is head and shoulders better than the Vikings. Philly also did not look great after going up 16-0 last week and Hurts made some mistakes(4th qtr fumble), I expect a spirited effort and them to come out and take care of business. Not to mention Kirk Cousins is beyond awful in primetime games and against teams above .500...I just don't think the Vikings are that good and they did it with smoke and mirrors last year, got every break and bounce and won every close game. Back to reality this year for Minnesota.

I will say that Philly has a few key injuries but I think they can withstand them due to their depth. I actually did not take the spread but have the Eagles in a numerous teasers and ML parlays. Maybe we can both win.

The team is not the same one that went to the Super Bowl last year. Most of the big names are the same but I don't think even they know what their identity is yet this year. It sure looks like need to run the damn ball a lot more, that offensive line is one of the best out there. Teams are playing them differently too, everyone has their calendar circled on the Eagles game. I expect them to have a rough year against the spread.

[klemopixx]

Nice start to the week with that half point coming through on the Eagles game.


On to Week 2!

Chiefs -3.5 at the Jags

After a stinker of an opener the Chiefs bounce back big on the road. The Jags are a force to be reckoned with but I still don't think they're at the Chiefs level. As I said in the previous post, the fear of starting the year at 0-2 is a huge motivator in this league. Doesn't mean it won't happen but good teams rise to the challenge. Chiefs by a TD.

Ravens +3 at the Bengals

Bengals don't want that 0-2 collar but I think this Ravens team will stay close, maybe even get the upset. This is always a nasty division game so I'll take the points.

Raiders at the -8.5 Bills

Vegas comes east and it's never been a good time for them. Unlike Cinncinnati, the Bills come home and get back on track. Vegas is better but I don't think they hang with Buffalo. Bills by 10.

Seahawks at the -4.5 Lions

Detroit is this year's juggernaut. They can explode on offense and they've improved defensively. They should take this by a touchdown at least.

Chargers -2.5 at the Titans

This is more about believing in the Chargers more than a slight to Tennesse. It's Herbert's passing vs Henry's running and I'll go with the passing game here. Chargers get the W.

Bears at -2.5 Bucs

Chicago just doesn't impress me. Sure Justin Fields could go off for 4 TD's here but that squad doesn't inspire confidence from me. I'll take the Bucs at home.

Packers +1.5 at the Falcons

I think Jordan Love is gonna have a big year. Falcons can be tough at home but I think this Packers team takes the road win.

Colts at -1 Texans

Two rebuilding teams with rookie QB's so literally anything can happen here. I'll go with home field advantage, Texans by 3 but it's a coinflip at best. Don't bet this game.

49ers -7 at the Rams

Another nasty division game here but I think these Niners are on a mission this year. Tempted to take the Home dog but I think SF blows them away but 2 TD's.

Giants at the +4.5 Cardinals

Talk about avoiding the 0-2 starts, NY needs this game bad with a rough schedule coming up. A loss here would send Giants fans into a panic. And it might happen! Personally I think the Giants O-line isn't as bad as the Cowboys made it seem but they aren't great either.
I'll take the home dog +4.5 but I think NY gets the win.

Jets +8.5 at the Cowboys

Big test for Zack Wilson here. I think he'll do enought to keep it close, Jets defense is for real. I'll take the points.

Commanders at the -3.5 Broncos.

Tough defensive battle but I can't see the Broncos dropping their first two...at home!Denver by a TD

Dolphins at +2.5 Patriots

Belichick is a home dog two weeks in a row! I think that defense gets to Tua and makes it a long day for Miami. That home dog is barking! I'll go Pats.

Saints -3 over the Panthers

Saints have a better roster right now. Although I'm expecting Bryce Young to go off soon.
Saints by a TD

Browns -2.5 over the Steelers

Can Pittsburgh lose the first two at home? The Browns looked dominating last week, this would be HUGE victory against a nasty division rival. Look out for Cleveland!

As always fade at your own risk!
Good luck everyone!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

get em

[klemopixx]

Week 2 Recap


7-7-2 for the week after a blazing start. It's tough to get a positive week when you're picking every game. It brings the YTD totals to 14-16-2.


Let me jump on this Thursday Night game right now.

Giants at -10 Niners

Incredible comeback by the Giants last week. Daniel Jones was on fire in that second half. If he plays like that the G men have a real shot but the Giants RT Evan Neal has been a revolving door this year and Nick Bosa might camp out in front of him all night. Barkley might play against this defense he might reconsider. This Niners team is no joke and I expect them to blow the doors off the Giants. 49ers by two touchdowns.