[klemopixx]

After an abysmal 131-132-10 season (one game cancelled) it's time to wind it up for another season of shooting from the hip predictions. Each week I'll make my picks using the current lines at Scores and Odds at the time of the post. All picks not made before kickoff are considered losses and I'm not sure but that only came into play once last year when I was late on a Thursday pick.

My main idea behind this was the that I overthink my picks throughout the week and botch the bet on Sunday. Teams are what they are and my gut first choice is usually the best. Betting at a .500 clip isn't making anyone money. Let's hope it'a a better year.

[klemopixx]

Week one!

Thursaday Night special!

Lions vs (-6.5) Chiefs!

Sure the Lions are going to be a tough team this year but you give Andy Reid extra time to game plan and Big Red is usually gold. Wether it's the season opener or after a bye week, Andy has that team ready. Plus the season opener at home? I think they can score enough to keep it over a touchdown. Chiefs by a TD.

More to come before the weekend. GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!

FADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!

[klemopixx]

As you can see, placing a bet too early can be devastating. Rule of thumb says that I never change a pick after posting so I'm 0-1 for the year.

Here's the rest of the Week One action.

Panthers +3.5 over the Falcons LOSS

I'm thinking Bryce Young has a big first game, maybe not winning this outright but keeping it close. Need to see more of Desmond Ridder before I start betting on him. The Falcons have the better overall team but I'll go with the road dog here.

Houston vs -10 Baltimore WIN

Ravens will want Lamar to start the season with a bang so I'm expecting them to light it up for the home crowd. Ten points is an awful lot as it always leaves that backdoor cover open, but not today. I'm liking the Ravens here.

Bengals -1.5 at the Browns LOSS

Browns were looking good in the preseason but that means squat right now. It all depends on wether Burrow suits up or not. Right now? I'm thinking he does and that's enough to beat that spread on the road.

Jags -4.5 over the Colts WIN

Tough to pick against the home team in a division game but with Jacksonville is billing itself as a team that's capable of going deep in the playoffs. You have to beat a team with a rookie starter in his first game. Jags by a touchdown here.

Buccaneers at the -5.5 Vikings LOSS

Vikings should light it up at home because who knows what their defense is like this year. Baker Mayfield doesn't scare me much.

Titans +3 over the Saints WIN

Interesting game here as I'm wondering which offense will dominate more, the Titans running game or the Saints passing game? I'm thinking Tennesse controls the clock in the second half and grinds out a road win to start the season. The over (41.5) seems like a good pick too.

49ers -2.5 over the Steelers WIN

That defense needs to come up big with Kittle looking iffy right now. Will Brock Purdy continue his majic? Beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh is no small task but if you're going back to the NFC title game you're winning games like this. Niners by a FG.

Cardinals at the -7 Commanders LOSS

I know it's the first game but we'll see how well Sam Howell runs this offense. It's not like the Cardinals defense is a juggernaut so they should win this one easily. Commanders defense should set the tone early. Washington should roll.

Packers +1.5 over the Bears WIN

I like Jordan Love with this offense and I think he'll be better than most expect. Justin Fields will run crazy as usual, will he rise up now that he has some weapons? Packers still have a good defense. I think they squeak this one out late. Green Bay with the upset.

Raiders at -3.5 Broncos LOSS
A Russell Wilson comeback? We'll see about that but the Denver defense is still pretty good. Jimmy Garoppolo gets his shot with the Raiders offense. This should be a nasty division game. Broncos with the home win and cover.

Dolphins at the -3 Chargers LOSS

Miami starting the season on the Left Coast this year, in they can run the ball against that Charger defense then they have a shot. I'm not sure the Dolphins O-line is up to the task. It'll be up to Tua to win this one. My gut tells me the Chargers grind this one out for the home W.

Eagles -4 over the Patriots WIN

Birds have the more talented team here and even though it's Tom Brady Day in Foxborough, the Patriots will need a big defensive effort to stop Jalen Hurts. Birds by 10.

Rams at -4.5 Seahawks LOSS

No Cooper Kupp with a possible IR stint coming smells like the Rams might be tanking this year. Too early to tell. But it's not easy going into Seattle and scraping out a win. Too many question marks on the Rams to keep it close. Seahawks roll.

Cowboys -3.5 over the Giants WIN

A tough division matchup and I'd love to see the Cowboys get crushed but I'm not sure two rookie cornerbacks can handle Lamb and Co. here. Dallas by a TD.

Bills -3 over the Jets LOSS

I admit, I'm partial against Aaron Rodgers. I think the tank is empty here and he's just running on fumes. Two great defenses should keep this tight but I'm going with the Bills. Gut call here.


Good luck everyone, fade at your own risk!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

BOL Klemoid

[gauchojake]

Gl sir. .500 with some good bonuses picking every freaking game isn't bad.

[nyrb]

BOL man

[klemopixx]

YTD 7 - 9 Not the start I wanted.


Quite a first week in the NFL! Lots of surprises and it doesn't get any easier in Week 2




Thursday Night Football


Vikings +6.5 at the Eagles

My main lean here is the Vikings do NOT want to go 0-2 to start the year! Eagles are slightly banged up in the secondary, corner James Bradberry and safety Reed Blankenship are out along with LB Nakobe Dean which is not a good thing against the Vikings passing attack. Kenny Gainwell is also out but the Birds running backs are a next-man-up squad so I don't see it affecting that too much. Eagles are always tough at home and they might squeak this one out too but 6.5 seems too much for me. I'm taking the points with the Vikings.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Coming from a diehard Eagles fan I am surprised by this. No team wants to start 0-2, that doesn't mean that it won't happen! The Eagles roster is head and shoulders better than the Vikings. Philly also did not look great after going up 16-0 last week and Hurts made some mistakes(4th qtr fumble), I expect a spirited effort and them to come out and take care of business. Not to mention Kirk Cousins is beyond awful in primetime games and against teams above .500...I just don't think the Vikings are that good and they did it with smoke and mirrors last year, got every break and bounce and won every close game. Back to reality this year for Minnesota.

I will say that Philly has a few key injuries but I think they can withstand them due to their depth. I actually did not take the spread but have the Eagles in a numerous teasers and ML parlays. Maybe we can both win.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Klem you’re playing way too many games so I hope this is just for entertainment purposes only? Focus on 2-3 top plays

[gauchojake]

He's playing the entire season Philly! I don't think he's actually betting every game but I could be wrong.

[klemopixx]

You are correct Jake. I'm predicting every game with the spread to see where I end up at the end of the year.

[klemopixx]

Coming from a diehard Eagles fan I am surprised by this. No team wants to start 0-2, that doesn't mean that it won't happen! The Eagles roster is head and shoulders better than the Vikings. Philly also did not look great after going up 16-0 last week and Hurts made some mistakes(4th qtr fumble), I expect a spirited effort and them to come out and take care of business. Not to mention Kirk Cousins is beyond awful in primetime games and against teams above .500...I just don't think the Vikings are that good and they did it with smoke and mirrors last year, got every break and bounce and won every close game. Back to reality this year for Minnesota.

I will say that Philly has a few key injuries but I think they can withstand them due to their depth. I actually did not take the spread but have the Eagles in a numerous teasers and ML parlays. Maybe we can both win.

The team is not the same one that went to the Super Bowl last year. Most of the big names are the same but I don't think even they know what their identity is yet this year. It sure looks like need to run the damn ball a lot more, that offensive line is one of the best out there. Teams are playing them differently too, everyone has their calendar circled on the Eagles game. I expect them to have a rough year against the spread.

[klemopixx]

Nice start to the week with that half point coming through on the Eagles game.


On to Week 2!

Chiefs -3.5 at the Jags

After a stinker of an opener the Chiefs bounce back big on the road. The Jags are a force to be reckoned with but I still don't think they're at the Chiefs level. As I said in the previous post, the fear of starting the year at 0-2 is a huge motivator in this league. Doesn't mean it won't happen but good teams rise to the challenge. Chiefs by a TD.

Ravens +3 at the Bengals

Bengals don't want that 0-2 collar but I think this Ravens team will stay close, maybe even get the upset. This is always a nasty division game so I'll take the points.

Raiders at the -8.5 Bills

Vegas comes east and it's never been a good time for them. Unlike Cinncinnati, the Bills come home and get back on track. Vegas is better but I don't think they hang with Buffalo. Bills by 10.

Seahawks at the -4.5 Lions

Detroit is this year's juggernaut. They can explode on offense and they've improved defensively. They should take this by a touchdown at least.

Chargers -2.5 at the Titans

This is more about believing in the Chargers more than a slight to Tennesse. It's Herbert's passing vs Henry's running and I'll go with the passing game here. Chargers get the W.

Bears at -2.5 Bucs

Chicago just doesn't impress me. Sure Justin Fields could go off for 4 TD's here but that squad doesn't inspire confidence from me. I'll take the Bucs at home.

Packers +1.5 at the Falcons

I think Jordan Love is gonna have a big year. Falcons can be tough at home but I think this Packers team takes the road win.

Colts at -1 Texans

Two rebuilding teams with rookie QB's so literally anything can happen here. I'll go with home field advantage, Texans by 3 but it's a coinflip at best. Don't bet this game.

49ers -7 at the Rams

Another nasty division game here but I think these Niners are on a mission this year. Tempted to take the Home dog but I think SF blows them away but 2 TD's.

Giants at the +4.5 Cardinals

Talk about avoiding the 0-2 starts, NY needs this game bad with a rough schedule coming up. A loss here would send Giants fans into a panic. And it might happen! Personally I think the Giants O-line isn't as bad as the Cowboys made it seem but they aren't great either.
I'll take the home dog +4.5 but I think NY gets the win.

Jets +8.5 at the Cowboys

Big test for Zack Wilson here. I think he'll do enought to keep it close, Jets defense is for real. I'll take the points.

Commanders at the -3.5 Broncos.

Tough defensive battle but I can't see the Broncos dropping their first two...at home!Denver by a TD

Dolphins at +2.5 Patriots

Belichick is a home dog two weeks in a row! I think that defense gets to Tua and makes it a long day for Miami. That home dog is barking! I'll go Pats.

Saints -3 over the Panthers

Saints have a better roster right now. Although I'm expecting Bryce Young to go off soon.
Saints by a TD

Browns -2.5 over the Steelers

Can Pittsburgh lose the first two at home? The Browns looked dominating last week, this would be HUGE victory against a nasty division rival. Look out for Cleveland!

As always fade at your own risk!
Good luck everyone!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

get em

[klemopixx]

Week 2 Recap


7-7-2 for the week after a blazing start. It's tough to get a positive week when you're picking every game. It brings the YTD totals to 14-16-2.


Let me jump on this Thursday Night game right now.

Giants at -10 Niners

Incredible comeback by the Giants last week. Daniel Jones was on fire in that second half. If he plays like that the G men have a real shot but the Giants RT Evan Neal has been a revolving door this year and Nick Bosa might camp out in front of him all night. Barkley might play against this defense he might reconsider. This Niners team is no joke and I expect them to blow the doors off the Giants. 49ers by two touchdowns.

[klemopixx]

Boom!
Niners are for real, Giants are pretenders. Nice start to the week, let's get this done!


Chargers at -1.5 Vikings
Two good offenses, two suspect defenses although the Vikings showed some grit against the passing game of Philly. I expect the Chargers to run the ball down their throat all day. Vikings will light it up with the passing game. I expect the Vikings to score more. Minnesota by a field goal.

Titans at the -3.5 Browns
Losing Nick Chubb was a bad break for Cleveland and the Titans are a good run stopping team anyway. Deshaun Watson hasn't done squat since signing that big contract. Gut call here but Browns win with Watson finally lighting it up.

Texans at -8.5 Jags
Jacksonville held the Chiefs to 17 so maybe this defense is coming together. Houston facing some injuries on the offensive line so I'm guessing the Jags do enough to beat the 8.5 spread. My main concern is the garbage time points.

Patriots -2.5 at the Jets
Two good defenses in what might be a rainy sloppy game. I'll give the edge to Belichick not going 0-3 to start the year. U36.5 might be a play here too.

Saints at -1.5 Packers
I like what Jordan Love is doing this year although this is a tough test. Saints get Kamara back next week and Carr is definitely a better QB. Pack might do enough to win this at home but this is a coin toss for me. I'll go with home field here.

Broncos at the -6.5 Dolphins
Denver has a good defense but Russell Wilson hasn't hit his stride. Dolphins look like real contenders and I like that this spread is under a TD. I'll take the Fish at home.

Bills at the +6.5 Commanders
Washington might be for real but they get a tough test going against Buffalo. Bills looked like a contender last week. Two good defenses here so I'll take the home dog. u43.5 looks good too.

Falcons at -3 Lions
Interesting matchup here with the Falcons playing good balanced ball while the Lions are trying to look like conrenders. I'm not sure Ridder can win the game for them although i love their running game. I'm liking the Lions here at home.

Colts at -8.5 Ravens
Minshew is a good backup and the Ravens are missing a bunch of starters. Lamar Jackson needs to play like a star for this team to beat that spread. I'll go with the Ravens but I HATE that spread.

Panthers at -5.5 Seahawks
I like Bryce Young but this is a tough trip for Carolina to try to win in Seattle. Seahawks should cover easy.

Cowboys -12.5 at the Cardinals
This looks like another blowout here as that Dallas defense should dominate. Cardinals defense isn't bad but got exposed by the Giants last week. This shouldn't be close.

Bears at -12.5 Chiefs
Another mismatch here with Mahomes picking apart that Bears pass defense. I'm just waiting for Justin Fields to take a bad shot and go down. He's a good QB but this offense isn't clicking now.

Steelers at the -2.5 Raiders
Pittsburgh is not the team it used to be IMHO, and neither are the Raiders. I think Vegas runs the ball and keeps Pickett off the field although he hasn't looked great either. Time for Garropolo to grind uot a win.

Eagles at +4.5 Buccaneers
Birds haven't hit their stride offensively and that's a concern. They won't be able to run the ball like they did on the Vikings a week ago. Baker Mayfield has played well but he'll have to be on his toes against that Eagles front four. Eagles win but don't cover.

Rams +2.5 against the LA Rams
Burrow is nicked up and not playing well and Stafford is looking good. Can the Bengals go 0-3? Things are not looking good in Cinncinnati. I'm liking the Rams here.

As always the spreads were taken from Odds and Scores at the moment this post was written, good luck to everyone this weekend.


GO BIRDS!

[klemopixx]

Half points cost me TWO games this week! Week 3 totals came to 7-9 and the YTD comes to 21-25-2.

I'm rather surprised that the Cowboys and Ravens choked against weaker teams but that's why they say Any Given Sunday.


Onto Week 4 and the Thursday Night Game.

Lions -1.5 at the Packers
Jordan Love had a nice comeback on Sunday and I really like that Green Bay team but these Lions are for real. Should be a shootout at Lambeau for the division lead. In the end the Lions have too many weapons. Detroit by 6

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Half points cost me TWO games this week! Week 3 totals came to 7-9 and the YTD comes to 21-25-2.

I'm rather surprised that the Cowboys and Ravens choked against weaker teams but that's why they say Any Given Sunday.


Onto Week 4 and the Thursday Night Game.

Lions -1.5 at the Packers
Jordan Love had a nice comeback on Sunday and I really like that Green Bay team but these Lions are for real. Should be a shootout at Lambeau for the division lead. In the end the Lions have too many weapons. Detroit by 6

Half points cost me TWO games this week!

Klemo, these #s are super-tight. Props for posting. GL this week.

[klemopixx]

Thanks Chucky!

Fourth week of the season is where the pretenders start to fall away and the contenders start the rise to the top. All that early season teams that struggled will bring it together here but as they say, ANY GIVEN SUNDAY!


Early early early Sunday game
Falcons at -3 Jaguars
Home game for Jacksonville across the pond. I have to take the Jags here. They're better than their record says and even though ATL is a good team, I can't see Ridder outplaying Lawrence in this one. A loss here puts the Jags in a bad spot to start the season and I can't see it happening. Jags by a TD

The rest of the Sunday action on WEEK FOUR!

Dolphins at -3 Bills
Miami puts up 70 last week but comes back to earth for this road game. I still wonder if this team is for real and a win today would prove it but the Bills are warming up after a crappy opening loss to the Jets. I think the Dolphins come back to earth today. Bills by 4.

Vikings at +4.5 Panthers
First battle of the winless teams today and I like the number on this one. Vikings may get the W but I'm expecting the Panthers to hang in there at home and maybe get the upset. Both teams suck against the run so I expect a grind it out type of game. I'm going with the home dog here.

Bears at -3.5 Broncos
Second battle of the winless and Denver is the better team overall as I'm not sure what the Bears have going for them at all. Until Fields starts looking like he did in the past I can't confidently take Chicago. Denver gets in the win column here.

Ravens at the -2.5 Browns
If Watson plays its definitely a Browns pick because Baltimore is banged up across the board and that Cleveland defense is for real. Tough spot here because of the last minute decision but I'm thinking he plays. Love these division games as this one will be decided by no more than a FG. I'll take the home team.

Steelers -3 at the Texans
Houston O-line is banged up and against this pass rush? Stroud will be running for his life all day. I'll go with Pittsburgh here.

Rams +1 against the Colts
Anthony Richardson is back and that's a plus but Stafford has been looking like his old self. I'm taking LA here as I'm not sure about that Colts secondary. Rams by 4

Buccaneers at the -3.5 Saints
Kamara returns for the Saints and it will give Winston a boost as he takes some of the pressure off. Two teams that as good or as bad as you think. Baker Mayfield can play but he always seems to make that costly mistake. I'll take the Saints but I hate the spread.

Commanders at -8.5 Eagles
Washington came back to earth last week against the Bills. Eagles are getting their wheels turning behind a stellar running game although they face a tough test here. Giving up 8.5 in a division game is NOT ideal but that Eagles pass rush is hot! Sam Howell will be under a lot of stress today. Birds by 10.

Bengals -2.5 at the Titans
Cincy starts rolling along with Burrow finally healing up. Titans need to put the pressure on and I'm thinking they don't have it. Bengals by 7

Raiders at -6.5 Chargers
Garropolo is out so I expect this line to get to 7. Chargers are one of the teams that are better than 1-2 and I expect them to get it done against a Raiders team still looking for an identity. Chargers by 10.

Patriots +6.5 at the Cowboys
Dallas should bounce back after that bad loss last week but you can't count Belichick out, especially with 6.5 points. New England keeps it close with that good defense.

Cardinals at -14 Niners
I hate giving up 14 but this San Fran team is damn good. I can't see AZ running like they did last week, not on this defense.
Niners by a ton.

Chiefs -8.5 at the Jets
I can't believe the Jets can't find anyone better than Zach Wilson. Such a shame to waste a season. Mahomes slowly carves this defense up for the road win. Chiefs by 10

Seahawks -1.5 at the Giants
NY with its back against the wall here with a tough schedule coming up. It's hard to overcome a bad o-line but the giants aren't a bad team. Tough call here but Daniel Jones is headed for injury if they don't do something to protect him. Seattle by a TD


Good luck everone! Fade at your own riskQ

GO BIRDS!