Criticism of the modern odds-maker

**veriableodds** · 06-08-23, 06:20 PM

Agree here CHUCK this is out of control. Do you think the cause of this is the new legal sportsbook in the usa, or just greed??

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-08-23, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

Agree here CHUCK this is out of control. Do you think the cause of this is the new legal sportsbook in the usa, or just greed??

You hit on it, Veri. IMHO, the books will price to what the bettors accept.

As more USA books opened, I talk to more square-bettors that just want action. They'll accept whatever terms. In that regard, I don't think the books are compelled to budge at all.

Will comment some more later.

**goduke** · 06-08-23, 07:19 PM

You are wishing for something that won’t ever happen. It’s as simple as this:

Books owe the states so much money for operating in those areas so in exchange books need to need to make money at every corner they can and the average bettor who doesn’t want to deal with a bookie or card charges from Sammies fireworks will pay the premium for the simplicity
I honestly wouldn’t even blame the books I would blame the states, the tax they are getting from these books is astronomical.
Honestly I think the well is going to dry up on this in 10 years or less. Rec players are going to take a beating and quit and they won’t be able to bring in enough players to make up for the players that quit
We will see the first sign of the lower tier US books close up or merge in less than 5 years

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-08-23, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by goduke

You are wishing for something that won’t ever happen. It’s as simple as this:

Books owe the states so much money for operating in those areas so in exchange books need to need to make money at every corner they can and the average bettor who doesn’t want to deal with a bookie or card charges from Sammies fireworks will pay the premium for the simplicity
I honestly wouldn’t even blame the books I would blame the states, the tax they are getting from these books is astronomical.
Honestly I think the well is going to dry up on this in 10 years or less. Rec players are going to take a beating and quit and they won’t be able to bring in enough players to make up for the players that quit
We will see the first sign of the lower tier US books close up or merge in less than 5 years

Interesting point. If the USA books are under-water b/c of a licensing fee, then it might be a pretty bad business model. Bookmaking is supposed to carry very little in fees. The juice is supposed to be the risk.

**Optional** · 06-08-23, 07:38 PM

Who does low vig attract?

Who does bonuses and boosts attract?

Which way would you go as CEO of a corporate betting company?

**veriableodds** · 06-08-23, 07:46 PM

As a volume bettor this can be quite frustrating. Only a couple ways to combat this -different angles which can be a hard transition, cause it would be more like paper trading till you can understand the concept. -reduction in % risked cause you know the book is pissing in your face juice wise(both) leads to income loss

Interesting fact here this was 7 years ago. The jack Daniels distillery was paying over $10m per month in taxes

**Waterstpub87** · 06-08-23, 09:35 PM

Its annoying. Been severely limited at almost 8 books or so in two years (less than 100$ accepted). In their defense, I wouldn't want me as a customer either. I tend to beat the close. I bet random stuff like Japanese Baseball and WNBA. But oddly enough, most of the books that limited me, I didn't bet those there. I think the line shopping leads to the limiting the quickest, but I'm not sure.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-08-23, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

Its annoying. Been severely limited at almost 8 books or so in two years (less than 100$ accepted). In their defense, I wouldn't want me as a customer either. I tend to beat the close. I bet random stuff like Japanese Baseball and WNBA. But oddly enough, most of the books that limited me, I didn't bet those there. I think the line shopping leads to the limiting the quickest, but I'm not sure.

Salud, Water. Thank you. You're echoing my point.

Accepting bets at +110 should be plenty. That should be enough of an edge to run your business. And you should offer numbers in a way that ENCOURAGES betting.

At the moment, I really think some of the Vegas shops are the best. I know South Point was one of the few books that offered Coll Baseball at 20-cent lines up to -200.

**Crusherrr** · 06-08-23, 10:50 PM

There are some good ones like Circa. But the issue with Circa is they are tough to beat. You wont find props or small market stuff that can be easily beat.

I've tried applying for a couple sportsbooks, Chucky. When Covid was in it's prime and most companies were hiring remote jobs I figured I'd see what's available. They don't want me. They don't care what my CLV or betting records are. They don't care about my knowledge in offshore gaming. My knowledge with Social or Crypto casinos/gaming. They don't care that I was a Fantasy Sports NFL writer. They don't care about my career in financial services. They don't care about my previous experience in DFS or poker. Their focus is parlays, odds boosts, SGP(x), and gimmicks. The modern oddsmaker is not what we are used to over the years.

I'm more interested now in sites like Kutt or BetOpenly and a few others. Peer-to-peer sites or exchanges like Sporttrade. My hope is these guys run the Draftkings and FanDuels off the map. It's tough getting recreational bettors over to those sites, though. People are more interested in a 50% boost on their 8 team parlays than they are straight bets with basically no vig (1% fee on win).

**deltgen** · 06-09-23, 09:53 AM

Crusherrr--I have been thinking about getting on one of these peer-to-peers, and I just looked at BetOpenly due to your reference. Something I find disturbing is their baseball rules, particularly that all bets are 'action' with no regard to the starting pitcher for the day. I find that problematic.

**Optional** · 06-09-23, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by deltgen

Crusherrr--I have been thinking about getting on one of these peer-to-peers, and I just looked at BetOpenly due to your reference. Something I find disturbing is their baseball rules, particularly that all bets are 'action' with no regard to the starting pitcher for the day. I find that problematic.

Person to person bets. Both sides will rarely both want a void when game info changes.

**Fishhead** · 06-09-23, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Salud, Water. Thank you. You're echoing my point.

Accepting bets at +110 should be plenty. That should be enough of an edge to run your business. And you should offer numbers in a way that ENCOURAGES betting.

At the moment, I really think some of the Vegas shops are the best. I know South Point was one of the few books that offered Coll Baseball at 20-cent lines up to -200.

Vegas is good, or wouldn't be living here at this time.

**Fishhead** · 06-09-23, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by deltgen

Crusherrr--I have been thinking about getting on one of these peer-to-peers, and I just looked at BetOpenly due to your reference. Something I find disturbing is their baseball rules, particularly that all bets are 'action' with no regard to the starting pitcher for the day. I find that problematic.

It's a complete and utter farce.

**Otters27** · 06-09-23, 10:26 AM

Not enough competition

A few books rule the land. Just tike Amazon and wal.art

**Fishhead** · 06-09-23, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by Otters27

Not enough competition

A few books rule the land. Just tike Amazon and wal.art

This is true............need some more SOLID OUTS to come about.

OFFSHORE and on the mainland!!

**BuckyOne** · 06-09-23, 10:44 AM

Matchbook was some of the most competitive times. Not sure of all the factors but, they needed market makers. Of course, not all the money was good. Did not lend itself that well to the credit market. Player stiffs agent and agent stiffs Matchbook, etc. So, I blame the demise on that. Sure, they needed volume to make some money but, it was fine as long as everybody's money was good.

That being said, it was probably hard getting cold hard cash in the door. It was like sharks eating sharks, LOL!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-09-23, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by Crusherrr

There are some good ones like Circa. But the issue with Circa is they are tough to beat. You wont find props or small market stuff that can be easily beat.

I've tried applying for a couple sportsbooks, Chucky. When Covid was in it's prime and most companies were hiring remote jobs I figured I'd see what's available. They don't want me. They don't care what my CLV or betting records are. They don't care about my knowledge in offshore gaming. My knowledge with Social or Crypto casinos/gaming. They don't care that I was a Fantasy Sports NFL writer. They don't care about my career in financial services. They don't care about my previous experience in DFS or poker. Their focus is parlays, odds boosts, SGP(x), and gimmicks. The modern oddsmaker is not what we are used to over the years.

I'm more interested now in sites like Kutt or BetOpenly and a few others. Peer-to-peer sites or exchanges like Sporttrade. My hope is these guys run the Draftkings and FanDuels off the map. It's tough getting recreational bettors over to those sites, though. People are more interested in a 50% boost on their 8 team parlays than they are straight bets with basically no vig (1% fee on win).

Great post, Crush. You are a bright guy. Good Luck to you.

Yes, the modern oddsmaker is not what I've come to know. I always viewed the oddsmaker as having a nobility, as a guy willing to take on a challenge. If you catch clear a profit while writing +110 tickets, you're not doing a good job.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-09-23, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Vegas is good, or wouldn't be living here at this time.

Salud, Fish. Very interesting.

**Waterstpub87** · 06-09-23, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Salud, Water. Thank you. You're echoing my point.

Accepting bets at +110 should be plenty. That should be enough of an edge to run your business. And you should offer numbers in a way that ENCOURAGES betting.

At the moment, I really think some of the Vegas shops are the best. I know South Point was one of the few books that offered Coll Baseball at 20-cent lines up to -200.

Some of the onshore books are pretty ok. From my perspective, Draftkings (though I down there massively), Fanduel, Caesars and wynnbet are ok. Wynnbet has MLB dime lines.

The KAMBI thing is the most frustrating. This is supposed to be a professional company, yet all the books that use them are the quickest to limit

**TheMoneyShot** · 06-09-23, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

So tired of these 30-cent lines. They don't post competitive lines on small markets.

20-cent juice, tops. If you bet these into these fat lines, you're a sucker.

I agree. Seeing a 30 cent line is ridiculous. And yes... 20 cent is tops. I don't know if every regulated book is doing it?? I see it here and there time to time... but books will adjust when other books become competitive. And if they don't.... they will eventually lose business.

**StackinGreen** · 06-10-23, 08:46 AM

What percentage of people on sports do you think bet $500 per game? $1000+?

The bigger issue I have with the modern day, which is ironic, is that as they country debased culturally into allowing all sorts of things, including sports betting (across the board), government became further a tracker/surveillance state/profligate spender. What I'm getting at is that the 10k CTR with the difficulty in putting cash in and out of bank accounts presents a tremendous inconvenience with constant threats and accusations that you are a criminal, which is not the case for pure bettors.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-10-23, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

What percentage of people on sports do you think bet $500 per game? $1000+?

The bigger issue I have with the modern day, which is ironic, is that as they country debased culturally into allowing all sorts of things, including sports betting (across the board), government became further a tracker/surveillance state/profligate spender. What I'm getting at is that the 10k CTR with the difficulty in putting cash in and out of bank accounts presents a tremendous inconvenience with constant threats and accusations that you are a criminal, which is not the case for pure bettors.

Stackin, you make a good point. Who wants the hassle of dealing with more regulation? At some point, you say it's not worth it.

As for % of larger bets, any time I hear feedback from tellers...the info says that very few bettors average > $100 per bet. It's mostly action players for < $100 per bet.

**jackpot269** · 06-10-23, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

You hit on it, Veri. IMHO, the books will price to what the bettors accept.

As more USA books opened, I talk to more square-bettors that just want action. They'll accept whatever terms. In that regard, I don't think the books are compelled to budge at all.

Will comment some more later.

They will charge whatever the market will bear. The more competition you have for your business, the better price that will be found. If you have 40 books vs 10 wanting your business, they will be more bargains to be found

**Fishhead** · 06-10-23, 09:13 AM

Chucky, call me.
THANKS

**Optional** · 06-10-23, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Stackin, you make a good point. Who wants the hassle of dealing with more regulation? At some point, you say it's not worth it.

As for % of larger bets, any time I hear feedback from tellers...the info says that very few bettors average > $100 per bet. It's mostly action players for < $100 per bet.

I'd guess 5-10% of individuals bet $500+ regularly.

But they might make up a much higher % of the hold. Maybe 40-50%?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-10-23, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by Optional

I'd guess 5-10% of individuals bet $500+ regularly.

But they might make up a much higher % of the hold. Maybe 40-50%?

I think your stats are good, Opti.

And there's often a big split on the Ticket Count vs Money Bet. I'd argue that the BEST handicapper can discern information from Ticket vs Money. There's value to knowing the Sharp vs Square divide.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-10-23, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Chucky, call me.
THANKS

OK, Fish. But I have to admit that I'm pretty busted up nowadays.

Too much work. Just trying to get to the finish line.

**Fishhead** · 06-10-23, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by Optional

I'd guess 5-10% of individuals bet $500+ regularly.

Depends on the shop, obviously.

For example, having worked at four Vegas books, it's not nearly 10%, and may not even be 5%

**Fishhead** · 06-10-23, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

OK, Fish. But I have to admit that I'm pretty busted up nowadays.

Too much work. Just trying to get to the finish line.

Thanks,.................and ya, that's what most of us are doing.

**Da Manster!** · 06-10-23, 02:44 PM

Great thread Chucky...I was starting to think it might just be a Cyprus problem with crooked books but I see it's a European thing as well with insane high priced lines and ridiculous juice!...the standard over here is 20%...most games fall in the 30 - 40% juice range ( -135) or (-145) or if you use the European decimal system you see a lot 1.73 or 1.71 prices on a particular side, total, number, etc! what sucks is they don't let you play offshore! you either bet with the local book shops or quit gambling altogether! another thing that MegaBet and OPAP (the two biggest Greek books) do is either add or subtract a half point or run if the line is a whole number. For example, in football if Dallas was (-7) over Washington the line would be either Cowboys (-7.5) or (-6.5)...you will either win or lose the wager but NEVER push. Actually I don't have a problem with that last part. but the good news is there are hundreds of shops all over the country. I have 5 of them all within a 2 mile radius from where I live! kind of like having a casino in your back yard. you win, you cash your ticket and get paid Euros instantly!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-10-23, 02:51 PM

Thank you, Manster. Just something I've been observing. I've been betting less and less.

Used to be that you felt like you're getting a fair shake. Now, I see two things:
1) 30-cent lines on small markets.
2) Vig on bigger Moneylines that's just unconscionable.

I mean, a lot of these lines are unplayable. Why bother?

What about Boxing lines? 1/60 on the Fav, 12/1 on the Dog. GMAFB.

My view is that oddsmakers are there to create liquid markets. You have the benefit of +110, make it a challenge. Don't set the line in a way that you cut off all volume.

**Da Manster!** · 06-10-23, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Thank you, Manster. Just something I've been observing. I've been betting less and less.

Used to be that you felt like you're getting a fair shake. Now, I see two things:
1) 30-cent lines on small markets.
2) Vig on bigger Moneylines that's just unconscionable.

I mean, a lot of these lines are unplayable. Why bother?

What about Boxing lines? 1/60 on the Fav, 12/1 on the Dog. GMAFB.

My view is that oddsmakers are there to create liquid markets. You have the benefit of +110, make it a challenge. Don't set the line in a way that you cut off all volume.

totally agree brother...my sentiments exactly...another strategy to consider if one chooses to gamble is to try and find at least two games, sides, totals, etc. that you really like and parlay them and at the very least get (+ EV) money...that is what I've been doing since moving over here last year. For example, in my picks thread, I saw two totals that I liked today in MLB...Dodgers-Phillies (over 8.5) and Red Sox-Yankees (over 8.5)...the juice/vig for the Dodgers-Phillies game is (-135) or (1.74)...and the Red Sox-Yankees game was (-128)...so instead of betting each game individually and paying the ridiculous juice I parlayed them together and will get a (+210) payout! it's a no-brainer...LOL! to put this into proper perspective, I actually did the number crunching for shits and giggles...by going the parlay route, I can potentially win an extra $43 instead of wagering each game separately!

**KS1986** · 06-10-23, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

totally agree brother...my sentiments exactly...another strategy to consider if one chooses to gamble is to try and find at least two games, sides, totals, etc. that you really like and parlay them and at the very least get (+ EV) money...that is what I've been doing since moving over here last year. For example, in my picks thread, I saw two totals that I liked today in MLB...Dodgers-Phillies (over 8.5) and Red Sox-Yankees (over 8.5)...the juice/vig for the Dodgers-Phillies game is (-135) or (1.74)...and the Red Sox-Yankees game was (-128)...so instead of betting each game individually and paying the ridiculous juice I parlayed them together and will get a (+210) payout! it's a no-brainer...LOL! to put this into proper perspective, I actually did the number crunching for shits and giggles...by going the parlay route, I can potentially win an extra $43 instead of wagering each game separately!

**Fishhead** · 06-10-23, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Thank you, Manster. Just something I've been observing. I've been betting less and less.

Used to be that you felt like you're getting a fair shake. Now, I see two things:
1) 30-cent lines on small markets.
2) Vig on bigger Moneylines that's just unconscionable.

I mean, a lot of these lines are unplayable. Why bother?

What about Boxing lines? 1/60 on the Fav, 12/1 on the Dog. GMAFB.

My view is that oddsmakers are there to create liquid markets. You have the benefit of +110, make it a challenge. Don't set the line in a way that you cut off all volume.

WAY to many mega-squares have entered the market Chucky