| An all-underdog Finals |
| This is the rare matchup of the #8 seed versus the #1. We’ve waited for the Nuggets to validate their self-belief. Others have waited for Miami to just go away. Both find themselves in the Finals. This marks Erik Spoelstra’s sixth appearance, tied for fourth-most all time. The Nuggets aim to snap the NBA’s fourth-longest title drought (47 seasons). Denver’s biggest question: Are the Nuggets tough enough? Denver has been questioned all season despite its historic offense and more-than-solid defense. Nuggets have the best player, but the Heat tend to muck things up with physicality. Denver avoiding Miami’s ugly stretches will show mental toughness befitting of a champion. Miami’s biggest question: Nikola Jokić, what the hell? Even with Bam Adebyo, the Heat lack the size and depth to handle him, unless you value Cody Zeller, Kevin Love and potential Ömer Yurtseven minutes. Miami must design creative ball denial or diversify its defensive coverage to confuse a genius. The alternative is Adebayo allowing 45-plus points from Jokić without getting into foul trouble and countering with his own aggressive, timely scoring. Denver’s biggest matchup: Aaron Gordon on Jimmy Butler. While I expect to see Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on Butler, Denver will also utilize Gordon’s size. Butler thrives on bullying defenders. If he can’t do that to Gordon, the Heat will be in trouble. Miami’s biggest matchup: Caleb Martin on Jamal Murray. Gabe Vincent is very capable of pestering good lead guards but doesn’t have the size to bother Murray’s jumper. Right now, Murray is too good at finding open spaces. I think Martin’s expert screen navigation, size and length can limit Denver’s No. 2 option. Betting odds (via BetMGM) Champion: Nuggets -400, Heat +310 Finals MVP: Jokić -350, Butler +350, Murray +1200, Martin +3000 Prediction: Heat in 6 |
| Denver dominates in Game 1 |
| The final score of 104-93 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals won’t tell the story of how easy this victory was for Denver. After three quarters, Nikola Jokić had scored or assisted on 69 of the Nuggets’ 84 points. The Heat had 63 points total. The Heat were doubling Jokić to get the ball out of his hands, almost as if they’d never done a scouting session on the way he plays. Miami had a strong fourth quarter, playing some zone to disrupt things (or maybe Denver just knew it could coast to a victory), and made this look more competitive. But Jokić finished with 27 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds for yet another triple-double, making him the second player ever to post a triple-double in their NBA Finals debut (Jason Kidd in 2002 was the first). Jimmy Butler simply didn’t have it with 13 points on 6-of-14 shooting, but he did have seven assists and seven rebounds. Bam Adebayo led the way for the Heat with 26 points on 13-of-25 shooting, and Max Strus went 0-of-10 with nine of those misses from 3-point range. Here are my main takeaways from Game 1 with a little point/counterpoint: Point: Miami generated great looks in the first half and shot 23.5 percent from deep (33.3 percent for the game). Strus should have made at least three or four of those misses. That’s a closer game when he does. Counterpoint: Denver was even worse from 3 (29.6 percent), and Michael Porter Jr. (a much better shooter than Strus) was 2-of-11. Point: Aaron Gordon had 12 of his 16 points in the first quarter and feasted against small defenders all game. The Heat can’t check him when he’s on the move. Counterpoint: If Gordon scoring big every game (especially on the road) is the way Miami loses the NBA Finals, then you live with that. Sell out to stop Jokić (although that didn’t happen in Game 1). Point: Adebayo needs to be aggressive on offense, and he was the leading scorer. He took everything the Nuggets gave him. Counterpoint: Denver will also live with Adebayo being “the reason it loses” the NBA Finals. While he took everything the Nuggets gave him, he rarely put pressure on the rim nor did he draw contact to generate fouls. Point: Butler was not the guy we saw in the previous rounds, and the combination of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Gordon was too much for him defensively. Counterpoint: We’ve seen Butler adjust to defenses, including his efforts in Games 6 and 7 against Boston. He’ll get his legs under him and get to the free-throw line. Miami only shot two free throws in Game 1. Counter-counterpoint: It’s hard to draw free throws when you don’t find contact around the rim. Miami played without physicality. |
| Can Miami extend Finals? |
| Miami seemed to figure out its problems against Denver en route to a Game 2 win. The Heat tied the Finals, stole home-court advantage, generated/made good shots and used their junk zone against the Nuggets at inopportune times. Miami headed back home and showed great fight in Game 3’s first half. It hasn’t mattered what Miami does on defense in an attempt to slow down Denver’s historic attack. Denver has also flipped a switch defensively. The Nuggets closed out Games 3-4 with incredible championship-level defense. That stretch leaves them 48 minutes from the first ever NBA championship. That also illustrates the grave situation Miami finds itself currently in. We’ve seen 36 teams in NBA Finals history trail 3-1. Only one pulled off the improbable: the 2016 Cavaliers, which did feature Kevin Love. Unfortunately, Miami’s capabilities don’t seem to match those LeBron-led Cavs and their nearly 107 points per game in completing that comeback. In their three wins this series, the Nuggets have locked down the Heat’s offense so well, allowing only 94.0 points per game on 41.7 percent shooting. In Game 4, despite holding Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray to bad shooting nights, the Heat were burned by Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown while scoring under 100 points in consecutive games for the first time in two months. Forget winning the series – here’s what Miami must do to simply stave off elimination and extend its season with another home game in Miami:
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