value/volume betting the NCAAB BIGT

**KVB** · 03-14-23, 02:19 PM

Good Luck here veriable.

I will be checkin in.

**veriableodds** · 03-14-23, 02:25 PM

yeah just fun for me nowadays
I should be able to check and update atleast for 2 weeks

**KVB** · 03-14-23, 02:32 PM

I like that you're attacking the Totals like this.

Good stuff.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 03-14-23, 04:11 PM

Careful with NIT totals. My model has all the NIT games going under too. In the past they have used different time and foul rules and I think that’s why the lines are higher than expected, but I haven’t been able to find specifics on what they’re doing this year. Guess we’ll know in a few hours.

GL!

**veriableodds** · 03-15-23, 04:03 PM

5-3 with 20 more left
mabye add some later good till the 19th

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-15-23, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

5-3 with 20 more left
mabye add some later good till the 19th

Nice start, Odds. Good thread.

I'd be careful playing the "Dog w/ better record." Not sure about that one.

**Otters27** · 03-15-23, 07:51 PM

This guy knows his stuff

**veriableodds** · 03-16-23, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

5-3 with 20 more left
mabye add some later good till the 19th

3/15

6-2 overall 11-5 (12 more left) still contemplating picks past the 19th

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-16-23, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

3/15

6-2 overall 11-5 (12 more left) still contemplating picks past the 19th

Very impressive. Rooting for you.

Q: What do you set as your REASONABLE Target Win% over time?

**veriableodds** · 03-16-23, 10:10 AM

great question without delving to deep or consuming much time.
A: there are so many angles/strategies=each wager has to be tallied in its place. (Examples of angles. value betting as in a favorite according to model shows they should be able to beat a line by more///same thing for an underdog, adherently same wagers but two different angles.
---bias dogs --- totals both o/u --- +ev only based off win% exmple team has 46% chance winning line is +125 that would mean that no matter what the outcome long term would be profitable..
People tend to focus on target% win to much when its really not about that
there are literally hundreds of angles that can be applied and can become a great source of passive income with some deep time dedication.

**veriableodds** · 03-16-23, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Nice start, Odds. Good thread.

I'd be careful playing the "Dog w/ better record." Not sure about that one.

yeah noticed that tend to stick with teams that have had success in past instead of just blindly

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-16-23, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by veriableodds

great question without delving to deep or consuming much time.
A: there are so many angles/strategies=each wager has to be tallied in its place. (Examples of angles. value betting as in a favorite according to model shows they should be able to beat a line by more///same thing for an underdog, adherently same wagers but two different angles.
---bias dogs --- totals both o/u --- +ev only based off win% exmple team has 46% chance winning line is +125 that would mean that no matter what the outcome long term would be profitable..
People tend to focus on target% win to much when its really not about that
there are literally hundreds of angles that can be applied and can become a great source of passive income with some deep time dedication.

Thanks for the reply, V. And props to you.

I should have phrased the question a little differently. I was asking about Target Win% vs -110 (1.91) odds.

Of course, it's all about the ROI. Your example on +EV on the +125 is a good one.

Good Luck on your plays. May your EV ring true.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-16-23, 01:50 PM

What a terrible T/O by Virginia. Did the guy think the clock was shorter?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 03-16-23, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

What a terrible T/O by Virginia. Did the guy think the clock was shorter?

Ha-ha, Furman wins. UVA bad finish.

**veriableodds** · 03-17-23, 08:17 AM

2-3 for the 16th 13-8 overall
7 plays left

dont think im going with anymore picks after 25 years of math(obsessed stats guy) it appears my love has gone away. will upate one last time

**KVB** · 03-17-23, 11:42 AM

**veriableodds** · 03-19-23, 08:10 PM

3-4 last7
16-12 total