[lakerboy]

Im looking at the Superbowl line at pinnacle

KC +2-113
Phi -2+102

That's all good

Now the team totals

KC 26.5 over +122/under -132
Phil 24.5 over -122/ under +105


Anyone have insight why KC is higher despite being 2 point dogs?

[johnnyvegas13]

I would say cus eagles winning correlate w under

[OldBill]

have no clue why they are higher teams are very close except for final s o s rankings Chiefs final rank 12 big drop from #3 Eagles always at bottom 31st 49ers finshed 32nd

[pologq]

maybe they reversed the two team totals.

i like the eagles to score over 2.5 tds. got that as a juicy prop.

[Machba]

Im looking at the Superbowl line at pinnacle

KC +2-113
Phi -2+102

That's all good

Now the team totals

KC 26.5 over +122/under -132
Phil 24.5 over -122/ under +105


Anyone have insight why KC is higher despite being 2 point dogs?

Overthinking are we? Call me

[lakerboy]

Overthinking are we? Call me

Bro don't make me come to your pizza shop.

[lakerboy]

maybe they reversed the two team totals.

i like the eagles to score over 2.5 tds. got that as a juicy prop.

No they did this with Cincinnati as well yesterday but they were one point higher.

I need answers.

[Machba]

Kc +2 should attract a LOT of $$$$$

[Machba]

Bro don't make me come to your pizza shop.

We are waiting for your cameo

[pologq]

people will love seeing mahomes +2. i hope it works out the same way when i got blinded by brady getting +2.5. we shall see.

[trobin31]

No they did this with Cincinnati as well yesterday but they were one point higher.

I need answers.

It’s just setting a market price…you post the price people are willng to pay, not sure there’s a way to arb this..could be and I just don’t know

[Optional]

Good question.

Maybe the markets managed separately and just moving that way on action?

[lakerboy]

people will love seeing mahomes +2. i hope it works out the same way when i got blinded by brady getting +2.5. we shall see.

I'm ONLY talking about the team totals.

[pavyracer]

Call the customer service of Pinnacle and ask to talk to the sports manager. They will be glad to provide you with the answer.

[lakerboy]

Call the customer service of Pinnacle and ask to talk to the sports manager. They will be glad to provide you with the answer.

I didn't expect you to have one don't worry.

[pavyracer]

I didn't expect you to have one don't worry.

I have one but is not the right answer. Do you want it?

[lakerboy]

I have one but is not the right answer. Do you want it?

You can chime in. There isn't necessarily a right answer but I made this thread to see if anyone here thinks they have a good answer. Most guys here don't like to put there necks on the line before an event.

[Al Masters]

Credit to lakerboy for asking a very good question.

I can’t figure it out, doesn’t make much sense to me.

my best guess would be an error on pinnys part but that can’t be as they would have already taken it down.

[edawg]

Because most people will expect KC to win or cover in a high scoring game and Philly to win or cover in a low scoring game. 9 times out if 10 it doesn't happen that way in marquee games in the NFL.

[Machba]

Im looking at the Superbowl line at pinnacle

KC +2-113
Phi -2+102

That's all good

Now the team totals

KC 26.5 over +122/under -132
Phil 24.5 over -122/ under +105


Anyone have insight why KC is higher despite being 2 point dogs?

2 pt dogs and the difference is 2 pts in the team totals HMMMMM.................................. ..................
I'm SQUARE as it gets in NFL and u know this. I hate philly so they will win it! My square ass can't pass up mahomes with points. Philly should be able to score at will on that kc defense 1 would think but mahomes is NEW NFL poster boy IMO and gets the DUB! 25-23 FINAL SCORE!

[KVB]

I'm ONLY talking about the team totals.

Not true. You are talking about Team Totals in the context of the full game spread. If you didn't have the full game spread in front of you, you wouldn't even be asking the question.

I suspect the prices on the KC UNDER 26.5 and the Philly OVER 24.5 will increase even more than they are now.

It's a conversion issue here and I am not going to give up my team Total push rates to answer this basic question.

What I will say is that yes, these markets are separate markets and will operate independently. Of all the football games, it is with the SuperBowl that we see lines and prices move from where they are equal to each other. For example, in this game Philly backers are far more likely to take the -2 spread while KC backers will choose the moneyline. This can lead to a shorter upset moneyline odds relative to the increasing spread.

For most games, they prices will be more equivalent, but not with the SuperBowl.

When it comes to team Totals, like I said, I would expect the KC UNDER 26.5 to grow in price while the Philly OVER 24.5 grows as well.

Notice the Full Game Total is 49.5 (-106/-106). But these team totals add up to 51 (not considering the pricing).

But, we need to consider the pricing, which helps lend to the answer to your question.

Just how different is UNDER 26.5 (-132) and OVER 24.5 (-122) when it comes to the math? What if the UNDER 26.5 went to -135 and the OVER 24.5 went to -125?

While the point spread might be 2, with Pinny pricing towards the dog (-110 or so) notice the Pinny moneyline is showing a no vig price of just -115. (That's the current Philly -121/KC +110).

When you put it together, considering Team Total push rates, the difference in team Totals may not be as much as it seems. There's a sweet spot here between 24 and 27 team total points that allows for a lot of wiggle room between 24.5 and 26.5.

Enough wiggle room, in fact, to give the full game underdog more Teat Total points than the Favorite, with the proper pricing.

Again, and it's worth repeating, at these numbers, expect the KC UNDER 26.5 (-132) to grow in price and the Philly OVER 24.5 (-122) to grow as well. By the prices moving so, these team totals become much closer than the actual score number indicates.

[mjsuax13]

Interesting question. I think if people are on the chiefs they probably get a lot to play on the team total as well. Vice versa. Not sure I recall seeing this before but I also don’t really bet team totals.

WHill and BETMGM don’t even have the team totals posted in app in Vegas.

[mjsuax13]

Credit to lakerboy for asking a very good question.

I can’t figure it out, doesn’t make much sense to me.

my best guess would be an error on pinnys part but that can’t be as they would have already taken it down.

I tend to agree on the error. Not posted in my vegas apps. Will check circa.

[lakerboy]

Not true. You are talking about Team Totals in the context of the full game spread. If you didn't have the full game spread in front of you, you wouldn't even be asking the question.

I suspect the prices on the KC UNDER 26.5 and the Philly OVER 24.5 will increase even more than they are now.

It's a conversion issue here and I am not going to give up my team Total push rates to answer this basic question.

What I will say is that yes, these markets are separate markets and will operate independently. Of all the football games, it is with the SuperBowl that we see lines and prices move from where they are equal to each other. For example, in this game Philly backers are far more likely to take the -2 spread while KC backers will choose the moneyline. This can lead to a shorter upset moneyline odds relative to the increasing spread.

For most games, they prices will be more equivalent, but not with the SuperBowl.

When it comes to team Totals, like I said, I would expect the KC UNDER 26.5 to grow in price while the Philly OVER 24.5 grows as well.

Notice the Full Game Total is 49.5 (-106/-106). But these team totals add up to 51 (not considering the pricing).

But, we need to consider the pricing, which helps lend to the answer to your question.

Just how different is UNDER 26.5 (-132) and OVER 24.5 (-122) when it comes to the math? What if the UNDER 26.5 went to -135 and the OVER 24.5 went to -125?

While the point spread might be 2, with Pinny pricing towards the dog (-110 or so) notice the Pinny moneyline is showing a no vig price of just -115. (That's the current Philly -121/KC +110).

When you put it together, considering Team Total push rates, the difference in team Totals may not be as much as it seems. There's a sweet spot here between 24 and 27 team total points that allows for a lot of wiggle room between 24.5 and 26.5.

Enough wiggle room, in fact, to give the full game underdog more Teat Total points than the Favorite, with the proper pricing.

Again, and it's worth repeating, at these numbers, expect the KC UNDER 26.5 (-132) to grow in price and the Philly OVER 24.5 (-122) to grow as well. By the prices moving so, these team totals become much closer than the actual score number indicates.

Great stuff. Thanks for delving in kvb.

Yesterday

Cincinnati TT 23.5-121 over/ under-107 or so
KC TT over 22.5-157/162 range/ under +127

KC hit exactly 23. Bengals had a shot to do the same.

Pinnacle does this stuff all season long on games. Cleary they knew that the chiefs were going to be tough sledding to get 23 but would probably hit it as the juice indicated. Some people called it stopping action I guess. They certainly didn't put up 23.5 on KC as that would lend to a win on the under at close to plus money or low juice. They gambled hoping that the -157 would lose.

[KVB]

It's not necessarily an error.

Pinny wants to generate a certain type of action on the game. For example, you could take KC OVER 23.5 (-127) at BOL and the take KC UNDER 26.5 (-135 or so) at Pinny.

That's just an example, but if you look at other houses, you can see where Pinny fits into the market with what some should consider, instead of an error, something more like an "alternate line" on the team totals.

[lakerboy]

I tend to agree on the error. Not posted in my vegas apps. Will check circa.

There is no error. This is normal for pinnacle.

Anyways I'm screenshotting for now with BETONLINE as well.

[KVB]

Like Lakeshow says, "Pinny does this stuff all season long on games" and sometimes, like I said, it's best to think of it as sort of an alternate line, even if it's the only line offered at the time.

Total points, spreads, and anything involving points can always be converted to a moneyline.

Pinny can get very creative with this fact.

[mjsuax13]

There is no error. This is normal for pinnacle.

Anyways I'm screenshotting for now with BETONLINE as well.

Wow. 3 points book to book.

[mjsuax13]

Not true. You are talking about Team Totals in the context of the full game spread. If you didn't have the full game spread in front of you, you wouldn't even be asking the question.

I suspect the prices on the KC UNDER 26.5 and the Philly OVER 24.5 will increase even more than they are now.

It's a conversion issue here and I am not going to give up my team Total push rates to answer this basic question.

What I will say is that yes, these markets are separate markets and will operate independently. Of all the football games, it is with the SuperBowl that we see lines and prices move from where they are equal to each other. For example, in this game Philly backers are far more likely to take the -2 spread while KC backers will choose the moneyline. This can lead to a shorter upset moneyline odds relative to the increasing spread.

For most games, they prices will be more equivalent, but not with the SuperBowl.

When it comes to team Totals, like I said, I would expect the KC UNDER 26.5 to grow in price while the Philly OVER 24.5 grows as well.

Notice the Full Game Total is 49.5 (-106/-106). But these team totals add up to 51 (not considering the pricing).

But, we need to consider the pricing, which helps lend to the answer to your question.

Just how different is UNDER 26.5 (-132) and OVER 24.5 (-122) when it comes to the math? What if the UNDER 26.5 went to -135 and the OVER 24.5 went to -125?

While the point spread might be 2, with Pinny pricing towards the dog (-110 or so) notice the Pinny moneyline is showing a no vig price of just -115. (That's the current Philly -121/KC +110).

When you put it together, considering Team Total push rates, the difference in team Totals may not be as much as it seems. There's a sweet spot here between 24 and 27 team total points that allows for a lot of wiggle room between 24.5 and 26.5.

Enough wiggle room, in fact, to give the full game underdog more Teat Total points than the Favorite, with the proper pricing.

Again, and it's worth repeating, at these numbers, expect the KC UNDER 26.5 (-132) to grow in price and the Philly OVER 24.5 (-122) to grow as well. By the prices moving so, these team totals become much closer than the actual score number indicates.

Great info. Helpful. I’m not as sharp as you gentlemen. Hell, I’m not even sharp. I have “somebody take my bet” on my forehead. Lol Just trying to find a couple winners. I do track and write down why I made the bet though.

[Machba]

Not true. You are talking about Team Totals in the context of the full game spread. If you didn't have the full game spread in front of you, you wouldn't even be asking the question.

I suspect the prices on the KC UNDER 26.5 and the Philly OVER 24.5 will increase even more than they are now.

It's a conversion issue here and I am not going to give up my team Total push rates to answer this basic question.

What I will say is that yes, these markets are separate markets and will operate independently. Of all the football games, it is with the SuperBowl that we see lines and prices move from where they are equal to each other. For example, in this game Philly backers are far more likely to take the -2 spread while KC backers will choose the moneyline. This can lead to a shorter upset moneyline odds relative to the increasing spread.

For most games, they prices will be more equivalent, but not with the SuperBowl.

When it comes to team Totals, like I said, I would expect the KC UNDER 26.5 to grow in price while the Philly OVER 24.5 grows as well.

Notice the Full Game Total is 49.5 (-106/-106). But these team totals add up to 51 (not considering the pricing).

But, we need to consider the pricing, which helps lend to the answer to your question.

Just how different is UNDER 26.5 (-132) and OVER 24.5 (-122) when it comes to the math? What if the UNDER 26.5 went to -135 and the OVER 24.5 went to -125?

While the point spread might be 2, with Pinny pricing towards the dog (-110 or so) notice the Pinny moneyline is showing a no vig price of just -115. (That's the current Philly -121/KC +110).

When you put it together, considering Team Total push rates, the difference in team Totals may not be as much as it seems. There's a sweet spot here between 24 and 27 team total points that allows for a lot of wiggle room between 24.5 and 26.5.

Enough wiggle room, in fact, to give the full game underdog more Teat Total points than the Favorite, with the proper pricing.

Again, and it's worth repeating, at these numbers, expect the KC UNDER 26.5 (-132) to grow in price and the Philly OVER 24.5 (-122) to grow as well. By the prices moving so, these team totals become much closer than the actual score number indicates.

[pologq]

I'm ONLY talking about the team totals.

i was RESPONDING to machba. just didn't quote him.

[pavyracer]

You can chime in. There isn't necessarily a right answer but I made this thread to see if anyone here thinks they have a good answer. Most guys here don't like to put there necks on the line before an event.

I think the books think that if Eagles get a big lead they won't be trying to score more hence the team total is lower than Chiefs.

So my thinking is to bet the Eagles to win/cover the 1H.

Pinnacle expects the Eagles to take an early lead and hang on to it if they can.

[goduke]

Close your eyes hammer kc and count your money after the game. I’m not wrong here

[stake1]

Canada’s own: drake had a nice score on chiefs

Light work for @Drake �� pic.twitter.com/XlAvEZMhBC

— Stake.com (@Stake) January 30, 2023

[BuckyOne]

The conversion works. There is no value anywhere here. over 26 1/2 +122/-132 converts to 23 1/2 -110/-102 Chiefs

And under 24 1/2 =122/105 covers to 25 1/2 -110/-102 Eagles

These numbers are about the same/no big deal. Think in terms of Pinnacle? They could be long with way and be happy. over 26 1/2 bets gives them under 26 1/2 -122 Or I think what they really want is betters to buy -132 juice and then they set with over 26 1/2 @ +132

One thing I am positive about is Pinnacle does not make mistakes and they do not give away value this early.