LaFleur not too smart

[d2bets]

They should have scored the TD at the end.

I just looked at records and if Det and GB both win the next 2, and GB beats Det the last weekend, they will be exactly tied in record, 1-1 against each other, same conf record, and exact same 4-4 against common opponents. Next tiebreaker is point differential. Currently now, Det leads that by 32. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is accurate.

Would be hilarious if Det made the playoffs over GB because GB came up 1-6 points short in point differential.

[JayLA]

I needed the fking TD

[pologq]

that would be hilarious. i am rooting for detroit and the jags to both make it. good for them.

[jjgold]

Good points guy

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I don't think that's correct.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory in all games.
5. Strength of schedule in all games.

Strength of victory is more complicated:
*the strength of victory (SOV) is the combined record of all teams that were beaten in that schedule.

Strength of victory effective credits you for BEATING teams with good records.

Net points don't come in until Tiebreakers 8 and 9.

[d2bets]

I don't think that's correct.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory in all games.
5. Strength of schedule in all games.

Strength of victory is more complicated:
*the strength of victory (SOV) is the combined record of all teams that were beaten in that schedule.

Strength of victory effective credits you for BEATING teams with good records.

Net points don't come in until Tiebreakers 8 and 9.

Ah. I stand corrected. I thought "strength of victory" meant how much you won by.

In that case, not sure if it would get to tiebreaker 8. Could come down to strength of victory. Would have to see how that plays out between these teams.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ah. I stand corrected. I thought "strength of victory" meant how much you won by.

In that case, not sure if it would get to tiebreaker 8. Could come down to strength of victory. Would have to see how that plays out between these teams.

Your point is good, though. It definitely COULD come in as a tie-breaker.

From what I've seen it's hard for Strength of Victory to come thru as a Tie. You'd have to have a similar list of DEFEATED opponents. And then the math would have to come out exact.

Several years ago with Favre, the Packers did come down to a deep tie-breaker vs Carolina. Both teams were trying to run up the score on the final day. So, it CAN happen.

[d2bets]

Your point is good, though. It definitely COULD come in as a tie-breaker.

From what I've seen it's hard for Strength of Victory to come thru as a Tie. You'd have to have a similar list of DEFEATED opponents. And then the math would have to come out exact.

Several years ago with Favre, the Packers did come down to a deep tie-breaker vs Carolina. Both teams were trying to run up the score on the final day. So, it CAN happen.

Yeah, I mean, if it's even possible, they should have scored from the 1. 0 chance they lose the game in that spot.

[gauchojake]

Tell me you lost a bet without telling me you lost your bet

[TheMoneyShot]

Green Bay isn't even strong enough for the playoffs. So it's pointless. Crazy to say... Detroit is a lot better from a "team balance" perspective. Dan Campbell has to stop going for it on 4th down. He's crazy at times.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

They should have scored the TD at the end.

I just looked at records and if Det and GB both win the next 2, and GB beats Det the last weekend, they will be exactly tied in record, 1-1 against each other, same conf record, and exact same 4-4 against common opponents. Next tiebreaker is point differential. Currently now, Det leads that by 32. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is accurate.

Would be hilarious if Det made the playoffs over GB because GB came up 1-6 points short in point differential.

d2, I looked at it. Still games to play out but I'm pretty confident that Detroit would pip GBay on that "Strength of Victory" category.

If you add up the W-L records of the teams you've defeated...GBay has only one good win (Dallas). Detroit has at least four Wins vs teams that are currently .500 or better.

I know people are talking up GBay's playoff chances. I think some of that is to build hype. Unless Detroit really collapses, I really don't know how the Packers make it.

Dallas locked up a playoff spot. The Giants are actually in very good shape after crushing WASHINGTON's hopes. The Giants really just need one more win.

Let's keep track of this. I haven't seen Strength of Victory stats printed this year. But GBay's wins look meager.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

The 1979 Redskins lost a playoff spot to the Bears on point differential, five measly points.

[d2bets]

Tell me you lost a bet without telling me you lost your bet

Nope.

[d2bets]

d2, I looked at it. Still games to play out but I'm pretty confident that Detroit would pip GBay on that "Strength of Victory" category.

If you add up the W-L records of the teams you've defeated...GBay has only one good win (Dallas). Detroit has at least four Wins vs teams that are currently .500 or better.

I know people are talking up GBay's playoff chances. I think some of that is to build hype. Unless Detroit really collapses, I really don't know how the Packers make it.

Dallas locked up a playoff spot. The Giants are actually in very good shape after crushing WASHINGTON's hopes. The Giants really just need one more win.

Let's keep track of this. I haven't seen Strength of Victory stats printed this year. But GBay's wins look meager.

I believe then they would need Detroit to lose one of their next two games. Plus there are other teams. That's why the odds are so high. Even if they win out, they need a bunch of help.

[goduke]

Green Bay is +880 to make playoffs. It’s not happening

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Green Bay is +880 to make playoffs. It’s not happening

I would say it COULD happen. But d2's thread is good fodder for why one should think twice.

*Best I can tell, the runout of Det/GBay both finishing 9-8 has Det ranking above GBAy based on the Strength of Victory.

If I'm wrong on that, someone let me know. Looks to me that GBay needs a lot to get there. For starters, they need Carolina to beat DET. And GBay has to win in Miami.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

d2, I found the SOV statistic. See this link:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

Like I referenced, DET is way ahead of GBay in SOV. .500 vs .393. GBay has only beaten tomato-cans this yr w/ the exception of the comeback vs Dallas.

Next week, DET is home to Chicago, so that sure doesn't look like a loss. Really comes down to the game this week at Carolina. Carolina looked BAD last week. No rushing game. Can the Panthers put together a game this week?

Even if all the games flip around for SOV...I don't think GBay can catch Detroit on that stat. I think you are correct on all the Tie-Breakers up to that point.

https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tie-breaking-procedures/

If both Det/GBay run out with wins until Game 17, a PACKER win would mean:
1) H2H even: 1-1
2) Div even: 4-2
3) Common games: 6 wins each.
4) Conf: 7-5 each.
5) SOV: Det having a sizable edge. Likely insurmountable.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I do see one fly in the ointment for the Lions:

*I don't expect SEA to win at Kan City. But they might benefit from the Jets collapsing.

Week 17: Sea home vs Jets looked pretty tough. Who can the Jets beat nowadays?

Sea is home week 18 vs the Rams. And SEA edges out Det on the H2H win.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The NFL tie-breaker rules can get very complicated. There's a reasonable chance that Det/GB/Sea all land on 9-8.

I'm saying that the Giants will get in. They really need only one more win. And they can easily get that versus their remaining schedule.

If the 7-seed comes down to a 3-way tie...I believe #3 is the key: Better Conference Record.

SEA has too many Conference losses (6). They would get knocked out.

If that narrows it down to Det/GB, tie-breakers revert to the 2-team items. In that case, it's back to Det/GB on SOV. And Detroit should be well ahead on that by virtue of the Lions beating more quality opponents.

The scenario Lion fans don't want to see = GB at record of 8-9 (or worse) with Det/Sea landing 9-8. In that case, Seattle's early-season win over DET would trump the Lions.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Packers got the help they were looking for. Sea/Det lose.

Packers have a chance to win out. The problem I see now is that the Cowboys might lay down in Week 18 (at Wash).

I would say that WASH would have a tough time beating Cle/Dal at home. But not if Dallas is resting starters.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. WASH blowing an incredible setup.

Have to see implications for Wk 18.

[jjgold]

Betting MURDER

[pavyracer]

The Packers not going anywhere with Lafleur. Time to cut ties.

[Orbison]

what are the tiebreakers for the last NFC playoff spot with everyone tied at 8-8?

[d2bets]

what are the tiebreakers for the last NFC playoff spot with everyone tied at 8-8?

Won't matter. Packers win and they're in. Lose and they're out.