[kyhawk]

Petras is out with surgery and the usual backup is in the transfer portal leaving the third stringer to start.

Thank god the ex starting QB from Mich is transfering for next year

https://theathletic.com/3968590/2022...petras-injury/

Iowa now is more depleted at quarterback than ever before. With Petras out following shoulder surgery and backup Alex Padilla already in the transfer portal, the Hawkeyes will start either redshirt freshman Joey Labas or true freshman Carson May against Kentucky in the Music City Bowl. Neither quarterback has taken a snap in a game for Iowa and both traded off series as the team’s scout-team quarterback this year.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good info, Kyhawk.

This goes to my other point. This Tfr stuff and Players sitting out bowls is too much. Used to be that you played for a team and saw the season out.

[KVB]

Well, good thing they have a "shutdown" defense.

That Total is very low at 31-32 or so.

[KVB]

Good info, Kyhawk.

This goes to my other point. This Tfr stuff and Players sitting out bowls is too much. Used to be that you played for a team and saw the season out.

Forget about the remember when's man. You can't use it to cap anyway. But you don't cap, so it's probably why you worry about it.

For those that do actually bet, it's best to focus on the market in front of you. Remember, players, coaches, even team names change, but the underlying system and market always remains the same.

Well, for the most part.

[jrgum3]

Will Levis may not play for the Cats. He has nothing to gain from playing in the game but he loves UK so he might suit up one last time.

[jtoler]

can't be any worse than petras

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will Levis may not play for the Cats. He has nothing to gain from playing in the game but he loves UK so he might suit up one last time.

Gummer:

*I'll disagree on one point. Levis should WANT to showcase one more game on tape.

He's not infallible. This is a chance for him to show what he's made of. Do it for his teammates.

And Levis isn't THAT good. Chance for him to prove any doubters wrong.

[KVB]

Current ine is Kentucky by a FG and the total about 31.5. Both of those pieces of info are relevant. I have no prediction for a line movement here, yet, but moving on news would give us 3.5 or 4, or a jump to 5.5 or even 6 with some unexpected Kentucky action.

I suspect those betting Iowa weren't really betting them for the offense though and there should some support for them at more than a FG, and another tier at more than 4 points.

I could be wrong here. Let's see how the media handles the narrative.

[KVB]

can't be any worse than petras

This hits at what I'm saying. Iowa betters aren't really going to see a large shift with the QB change, you can remove the QB in the capping and see that objectively.

Start talking about degensive players being out and then the shit starts hitting the fan.

[KVB]

Will Levis may not play for the Cats. He has nothing to gain from playing in the game but he loves UK so he might suit up one last time.

He might have something to gain, he might.

Then again, Iowa defense could embarrass him.

Is there any word that he might not play or are you speculating at this point?

You know something perhaps? Talk to us here jr gum.

[jrgum3]

Gummer:

*I'll disagree on one point. Levis should WANT to showcase one more game on tape.

He's not infallible. This is a chance for him to show what he's made of. Do it for his teammates.

And Levis isn't THAT good. Chance for him to prove any doubters wrong.

He's already played in a bowl game for UK in his career. He doesn't need to take any take any unnecessary risks in a game that essentially doesn't mean anything. Either way he's getting drafted in the early rounds on draft day possibly even the first but if he plays and gets hurt that throws a wrench into his plans.

[RockBottom]

Well, good thing they have a "shutdown" defense.

That Total is very low at 31-32 or so.

They have a shutdown offense also.

[jrgum3]

He might have something to gain, he might.

Then again, Iowa defense could embarrass him.

Is there any word that he might not play or are you speculating at this point?

You know something perhaps? Talk to us here jr gum.

He hasn't announced anything yet but it wouldn't surprise me if he sat this one out. He is projected to be a 1st round pick and if he gets hurt that goes out the window. He beat Iowa already once doing it last year so if he chooses not to play in this game I completely understand is all.

[KVB]

They have a shutdown offense also.

Funny but true, so losing the QB may not matter all that much. They might even surprise.

That's why I say, in market leading forecasting, taking out the QB's and replacing them with a null adjusted type average, the difference is small.

The Iowa defense dominates the numbers at most levels of handicapping.

[RockBottom]

Funny but true, so losing the QB may not matter all that much. They might even surprise.

That's why I say, in market leading forecasting, taking out the QB's and replacing them with a null adjusted type average, the difference is small.

The Iowa defense dominates the numbers at most levels of handicapping.

In a meaningless game, I’ll take a chance on the over.

[TheMoneyShot]

Out of all the years doing college football.... you may think you have 7 games lined up that you feel absolutely SHARP on... thinking you'll catch the opening line. You might cash in on 2 of them. The other 5 you will LOSE.

[KVB]

In a meaningless game, I’ll take a chance on the over.

Yeah that line is brutally low.

[KVB]

Out of all the years doing college football.... you may think you have 7 games lined up that you feel absolutely SHARP on... thinking you'll catch the opening line. You might cash in on 2 of them. The other 5 you will LOSE.

To some of us, creating all levels of lines is not such a mystery. Not only do I create the openers and origin lines, none of us ever bet on feel.

Our confidence level here is mathematically figured and before you start talking about how all of it fixed and you can't play the math game understand that you might not know what all goes into the math game, and that you DO NOT know what it means to be "fixed".

Can you make an opening line, before the books, that will match opening line? How about making a potential closer? Can you maybe make 3 lines, and just have one that matches? Have you tried? I've done this and posted it, to the point where some posters thought my non predictive public gauge was the assumed opening line (more of a run of coincidence than anything, but the point is I've posted this stuff for full seasons in the past).

Creating lines, splitting action to an acceptable level, and line movement do not have to be the mysteries many think and when something unexpected does happen, there is usually a reason that can be rooted out.

[TheMoneyShot]

To some of us, creating all levels of lines is not such a mystery. Not only do I create the openers and origin lines, none of us ever bet on feel.

Our confidence level here is mathematically figured and before you start talking about how all of it fixed and you can't play the math game understand that you might not know what all goes into the math game, and that you DO NOT know what it means to be "fixed".

Can you make an opening line, before the books, that will match opening line? How about making a potential closer? Can you maybe make 3 lines, and just have one that matches? Have you tried? I've done this and posted it, to the point where some posters thought my non predictive public gauge was the assumed opening line (more of a run of coincidence than anything, but the point is I've posted this stuff for full seasons in the past).

Creating lines, splitting action to an acceptable level, and line movement do not have to be the mysteries many think and when something unexpected does happen, there is usually a reason that can be rooted out.

Honestly... absolutely impossible to create a meaningful opening line on a college bowl game. You have players who are injured that claim they will be ready to play.... then come to find out they won't be in the lineup. Misinformation. You have QB's that just drop out 10 days before the game. Even if you guess right... there's always something that offsets your original thought. Information that's "originally" not released but mysteriously released on game day. A coordinator that just leaves.... it's just a pile of sh##.

I just watch the opening line... watch public flow. Then do my best to estimate "true" value. Books aren't going to allow you to be a millionaire even when you believe you have crucial information. Like I said... you may hit 2 strong out of 7... and mysteriously... the other 5 PETER OUT... not saying it's rigged. But if everyone has "public" information that a QB is out... do you really think Vegas is going to pay out all that cash?

[las8]

I would not be surprised if Labas is the best QB on this roster. Kirk doesn't like starting underclassmen at QB, especially when an upperclassman was a starter last year. This is his time to shine.

[iwantcougars]

petras is the worst qb ever

[KVB]

Honestly... absolutely impossible to create a meaningful opening line on a college bowl game...

No, this is absolutely not true.

Absolutely Not True.

Don't forget the purpose of the line. Common man. All those reason you just mentioned are noise when it comes things likes bowl games.

A very meaningful line can be made for sure, it can begin the process of increasing a handle, or even keeping the handle down by sidelining certian types of bettors.

The lines will move, things will be inefficient and if you know how to cap it it's like any other issue out there, get your EV and run.

You have take advantage of the extra money in the marketplace that throw the lines out of whack. The books sure as hell do.

As far ass the rest of the post, I don't agree. You sound naive to the game even though you've been around a long time. Too much talk about guessing and offsetting original thoughts. It's times like these that subjective bettor can get burned. He runs too hot or too cold and emotions short circuit rational thinking. That's another although related topic.

It's about discovering which pieces are relevant, which are not, and weighing them properly. There are a lot more pieces that are not relevant, that's for sure. You named many. Like I keep posting...the players, the coaches, the teams even, they all rotate, they all change; but some things do not change and are remarkably consistent year in and year out.

Those are the relevant things.

[jjgold]

Take dogs every bowl game profitable almost every year

Zero need to even handicap

[KVB]

Hey moneyshot good conversation here, seriously.

Good stuff pal.

[Enkhbat]

I like the over in this one, the 3rd stringer is gotta be much better than the starter.

[RockBottom]

No, this is absolutely not true.

Absolutely Not True.

Don't forget the purpose of the line. Common man. All those reason you just mentioned are noise when it comes things likes bowl games.

A very meaningful line can be made for sure, it can begin the process of increasing a handle, or even keeping the handle down by sidelining certian types of bettors.

The lines will move, things will be inefficient and if you know how to cap it it's like any other issue out there, get your EV and run.

You have take advantage of the extra money in the marketplace that throw the lines out of whack. The books sure as hell do.

As far ass the rest of the post, I don't agree. You sound naive to the game even though you've been around a long time. Too much talk about guessing and offsetting original thoughts. It's times like these that subjective bettor can get burned. He runs too hot or too cold and emotions short circuit rational thinking. That's another although related topic.

It's about discovering which pieces are relevant, which are not, and weighing them properly. There are a lot more pieces that are not relevant, that's for sure. You named many. Like I keep posting...the players, the coaches, the teams even, they all rotate, they all change; but some things do not change and are remarkably consistent year in and year out.

Those are the relevant things.

Until players decide they will sit it out.

[jjgold]

Everything factored into the line

Nobody has any secrets

[d2bets]

Everything factored into the line

Nobody has any secrets

Are you only talking about the closing line?

[jjgold]

Take every dog works almost every year

why complicate and try to be a loser predicting who will win games???

Long layoffs is why this works

[KVB]

Until players decide they will sit it out.

Did you even the whole post?

I'm guessing you didn't. Read it all, including those last two paragraphs about relevant things, then edit your post.



Cheers bro, it's all good.

[KVB]

Everything factored into the line...

When players choose to sit out it can serve to sway a line too much, in fact.

It's pretty clear that what's factored into the line is not accounted for by the SBR posters. They are worried about who is coaching and who is playing. That is seldom, in any sport, a recipe for reliable long term success in betting.

Relevant things matter, the rest is noise.

[jrgum3]

Will Levis officially announced he’s not playing in this game for UK. This might be the most unwatchable out of all the bowl games and even though that total is really low it wouldn’t shock me if it went under.

[iwantcougars]

do the players that enter to the transfer portal play in the bowl?

[KVB]

do the players that enter to the transfer portal play in the bowl?

There are players entering the portal that won't play in bowl games, but it's not necessary.

Remember, entering the transfer portal only means players are exploring options to transfer.

It, technically, does not mean the player is leaving the school they are at. That happens at the point of transfer.

Players can remove their names from the portal. I don't think these concepts have changed for this year, even though there are new portal rules, like the windows to enter.

[Brock Landers]

What a horrendous game this will be