1. #1
    iwantcougars
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    kvb can you share some tips...

    kvb can you share some tips on buying/selling in live betting

  2. #2
    Yulia74
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    Quote Originally Posted by iwantcougars View Post
    kvb can you share some tips...
    anal ass teasing on wedding anniversary is cool

  3. #3
    iwantcougars
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    sad for you that you only have the wedding anniversary to enter the backdoor

  4. #4
    KVB
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    Saw this, give me some time. Have a few things to do but want to give not only general advice but something actionable as well.

    Like all capping there are many ways to skin this cat and it all starts with setting a goal, a reason for trading.

    I have different goals and strategies, similar to different Funds. One strategy just looks to get both teams as underdogs. It starts with pregame capping and goes from there.

    Everyone has heard me say I don't like to lead early and it's true, for some types of Fund plays, leading early leads to failure. I've turned that fact into LIVE trading opportunities, or at least to look for opportunity.

    Like all betting, the number is important and some of the specifics I'd like to get into involve, no getting the perfect number necessarily, but to avoid getting the really bad numbers.

    I've been sprinkling the LIVE trading thoughts and actions around SBR recently, and yesterday I was talking about what to look for in the LIVE trading of the SEA/LV game at the beginning of the second half...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    For the LIVE second half line we will likely see an overreaction in the Raider moneyline as Seattle presses.

    It could happen in the full game ML too, but I don't see it moving like the second half ml would.

    This is, in general, a good sign for the Raiders full game.

    Gonna be a good game down the stretch.
    Using data driven experience, I make these predictions. We don't always get the number we want, and sometimes don't get the trades we want.

    Yesterday Seattle scored in the beginning of the second half and sure enough the Raider 2nd half moneyline inlfated. I did not buy but it was in my range. The raiders won the half and the game. Making that trade might have burned some LIVE accounts, so I did not make it.

    There can be a lot to it and every game is most definitely not tradeable. I want to expand on all of these points and will, I need some time though.

    Like I always post, keep track of your bets and why you made them. This is essential in LIVE trading. It leads to those data driven expectations of the market.

    You have to set a roadmap and prepare before hand so that way, when rockets, bullets, and missiles start flying you are not lost in the fog of war or caught up in emotions.

    Getting emotionally caught up in swings can be a downfall for sure. So many dos and don'ts in trading.
    Last edited by KVB; 11-28-22 at 03:05 PM. Reason: typos

  5. #5
    manny24
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    just the tip KV

  6. #6
    jjgold
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    Manny KVB is a Tremendous car salesman

  7. #7
    KVB
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    I have nothing to sell and nothing to prove.

  8. #8
    KVB
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    What if I came out and said it was all scripted, every sport, and there are only so many ways to play a game and that each game and script is meant for different types of audiences.

    Would you spend you time trying to argue and discover whether or not there was a script or would you spend you time trying identify the limited number of ways a game is played?

    Sometimes we start are models and decisions with assumptions and don't be afraid of viewing the markets through different lenses.

    I've made several videos that I have yet to publish. The topics inlcude sabermatric analyses of MLB, with some advanced tips on how to generate a prediction of runs scored for each team. Another video was to be titled "Viewing The Markets Through Muiltiple Lenses" and includes severlz different ways to view them and how it applies to betting into them.

    I realize a tip is all that was asked for, but for any tip I give, it must come with an understanding of where it came from. That understanding might include learning something knew or maybe even changing the way you think about the markets.

    But, often, to learn something new we must follow Yoda in those first steps and I agree with him 100% when he says, to start out...



    This thead might turn into a MasterClass.

  9. #9
    stevenash
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    Damn you guys, you spoiled my punch line.

    I wanted to say to the OP "KVB could tell you, but he'd then have to kill you"
    Lost it's effectiveness now.

  10. #10
    Snowball
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    find that hangnail and keep biting it.

  11. #11
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Damn you guys, you spoiled my punch line.

    I wanted to say to the OP "KVB could tell you, but he'd then have to kill you"
    Lost it's effectiveness now.
    Poster Manny spoiled my punchline.

    I came in to say…


  12. #12
    jjgold
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    If you want to buy a car see KVB

  13. #13
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Manny KVB is a Tremendous car salesman
    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    If you want to buy a car see KVB



  14. #14
    iwantcougars
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    ok, i tried some this weekend, with mixed results

    i selected a few games where i think the computers will favor the odds, in order to take the dog at a different number (for the middle)

    i took kentucky -26.5 pregame and then waited and took some shots at north florida live at 34.5 and 47.5, so it went 2 for 3.

    yesterday took the philly -6.5 , gb +7.5 (after the 1st drive td) but took philly later at -10.5

    but with live betting the juice is a bit insane -118 to -130, whats your approach since there is a time limitation to get the bet in

  15. #15
    Yulia74
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    Quote Originally Posted by iwantcougars View Post
    sad for you that you only have the wedding anniversary to enter the backdoor
    meeting alena the plug tonight

  16. #16
    Auto Donk
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  17. #17
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Fukkin Sno St becoming a favorite. Got what I could gonna need some buyback to get more. Good thing is I may be able to get both teams as dogs and this game is on the radar now for LIVE trading.

    We shall revisit this post close to game time.

    Made some posts today about the Fresno St. vs Washington State bowl game. it's on the radar, could drop off, but if stays on the radar this game could represent a good example for this thread.

    Why is it on the radar? The handicapping I have involved combined with the nature of the opener and early movement tells me we have a good chance of LIVE lines getting pushed too far with each team's back and forth momentum.

    How do we know there will be back and forth momentum? We don't. We are still dealing with probabilities here but history shows, based on my office's analysis, that this game belongs on the radar.

    It's above my non-avi...It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

    Might have a good example here to work with for this thread. Let's see just how much of a moneyline favorite Fresno St is, and how much of a dog Wash St. becomes before the game begins and see if Wash St. gets support when limits rise. I will analyze trading patterns and book movement, it will be subtle, but it will be there. We will either stack percentages and see the probabilty rise, or find that I am wrong here and it's not the back and forth game it could be.

    Whether or not it's back and forth isn't the issue here. We are dealing in probabilities and looking for value in the market....

  18. #18
    KVB
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    If we flip a coin, and each put down a buck, after some time we will be even, 50-50. But if you put down a buck and a penny, $1.01, to my buck, $1.00, then I say flip that coin. You could win the next three in a row, but I still have the one penny edge.

    This is just another game. If we have that edge, we will enter the opening trades, and if it's a one sided blowout, then so be it. The probability of success is not 100% here. The good thing is that it's a bowl game, volume is high, and our probabilites, from my standpoint, get risen. It's one of the examples of patience in the marketplace. These times only come but a few a year.

    I think we got an opportunity, we'll see.

  19. #19
    jjgold
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  20. #20
    KVB
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    I know it's getting wordy, and this is video worthy, but I want some basics laid out first.

    What I posted here below occurs in the LIVE markets as well. These forces are at play and it's part of what we will try to identify.

    Pre game, what drives this ability to gather steam and overall ability to manipulate the market is produced on the field in stats and scores and on television in emotional memory that last just long enough to influence the next game or two, or more depending on the sport and the fans.

    For LIVE games, it didn't used to be stats and data driven, but is much more now. It's becoming more and more about time value in the game and score, field position, even down and distance than it used to be, mostly because of advancement in stats and the books use of them...they are catching up to the bettor. It's more like option trading than ever.

    But what really drives it is what viewers see on the field and on the scoreboard relative to their inital perception of the teams (pre game, barring injuries as then perceptions can change, even making things unbettable) as the vast majority of bettors have no clue about the tools that the analytics guys in the NFL booth use and what I'm saying in the last paragraph. At least not yet.

    Here's the post and it will apply, to a certain extent, LIVE. Sadly they have carte blanche to do what they want with not just shading the line, but shading within the context of far higher vig. It's terrible what they are doing to the bettor there.

    In my opinion, as the linemaker catches up to the bettor, he will have justification for lowering the vig.

    But these market forces will never go away...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    You're talking about shading the line, which is still done today but almost never done right at the opener to any extreme, or what I consider dirty (because it takes advantage of ingorant market participants).

    This occurs more often in line movement for a number of reasons, the most basic of which I'll share.

    A rising line (regardless of direction) at the right time can lead to gathering steam which leads to steam chasing, which leads to a higher handle without messing with the hold. That steam isn't always "sharp money" and the books know the type of action they are getting. It's one of many intentional manipualations and I share this one openly because I've talked about many times in the past when posting season long plays and analysis.

    The video I made in the Think Tank, "Knowing Your Markets" explains lagging and leading no vig lines and how to identify them. Often this attempot to gather "steam bets" gets halted by the sharp money on the other side.

    This could not happen unless the opener was intentionally off to create the action or market participants manipulate and push the line too far a certain direction.

    Sometimes the bettors are in control, and sometime they just think they are as the book will step in and exhibit behaviors to influnece the bettors.

    This part of the market will never, ever go away. It's the nature of the need to satisfy the public action while balancing the sharper action and plays into human behavior, which never changes....
    I hope, if you read all this, that you got something out of it. I believe we will use this knowledge later in the thread.


  21. #21
    iwantcougars
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    thx it clears some of my thoughts/doubts.

    so in the "live" buy/sell process the risk amount stay the same (if the vig is the same, even if it goes into + territory)

    i grabbed some tb at -3, thinking that i might have a chance of grabbing some nola live (im guessing/forecasting the machine will favor tb through the game)

  22. #22
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by iwantcougars View Post
    thx it clears some of my thoughts/doubts.

    so in the "live" buy/sell process the risk amount stay the same (if the vig is the same, even if it goes into + territory)

    i grabbed some tb at -3, thinking that i might have a chance of grabbing some nola live (im guessing/forecasting the machine will favor tb through the game)
    I would say that vig or not, risk should stay pretty darn flat.

    If we start changing our bet sizes, $110 here, $120 there, etc all to win $100 then we will erode the bankroll by vigorish alone. Tough to apply any progressive betting system, like multi unit or Kelly betting, in LIVE trading. It can get expensive anyway and the vig in LIVE trading is already known to be higher.

  23. #23
    JIBBBY
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    Oh Christ a ghost poster starts a thread to pump up KVB. I've seen it all now. Perfect timing.

    KVB can give tips on licking Joe Biden's ass after he soils his diaper. He's good at that.

  24. #24
    KVB
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    Didn't even realize we had a game for this thead until, sadly, after the game started.

    I was buying GS on the small ml before the game and then hit Boston for some sell back when GS took the lead.

    Don't really like selling back +140s or so in NBA, it seems to be easier to foresee in MLB and NFL.

    NBA so wild mid game it creates opportunities, but I usually don't look for them unless on a bigger dog.

    Here's the posting while I was trading. It's a little after the fact, but it's fair to show just how things can quickly develop...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Shitty thing is I think Golden State went up 1-0 then 3-0 initially.

    I hate leading early in these games, even down to scoring first.



    I will be looking for some underdog Boston LIVE to sell back a portion of my position.

    Not sure we see a good number though.
    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Yeah, Boston will flirt with plus money here and I actually have +105 up now. Trying to buy it.
    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Just bought some Boston at +140. Didn't sell it all back, but offest some pregame trades.


    Problem is, I'm out of room to buy more. I will need to open another trade with another GS underdog ML. I am not looking to do that nor open a Bos position hoping they come back. I'm sure there will be back and forth to come, but trading this game is over for me.

  25. #25
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...Don't really like selling back +140s or so in NBA, it seems to be easier to foresee in MLB and NFL....
    I should clarify. I noticed that I don't usually buy these smaller NBA moneyline with the intent to sell back LIVE. I don't usually try to foresee those moments, even if they are there. It's a huge pool to swim in over a season.

    May not be a good reason for that, but it seems to be the way things go.

  26. #26
    jjgold
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    KVB itís very secretive, aloof, and very cunning

  27. #27
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    KVB it’s very secretive, aloof, and very cunning
    Well, except for that video where I teach even the most novel bettor how to get +EV out of the markets by Knowing Your Markets.

    There was that.


  28. #28
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    KVB itís very secretive, aloof, and very cunning
    Lol

    He is always here helping as best as he thinks.

    Gold you are a 🤡
    Points Awarded:

    KVB gave lakerboy 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


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