Most Profitable Bet in The World Cup

**jjgold** · 11-23-22, 07:02 PM

Paver you follow everything

**slayer14** · 11-23-22, 07:04 PM

under 2.5 goals has been winning a lot

**lakerboy** · 11-23-22, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by slayer14

under 2.5 goals has been winning a lot

You realize the juice on that?

**daneault23** · 11-24-22, 01:58 AM

Paver what's going on here. Are you saying to take the over on shots on goal every game?

**pavyracer** · 11-24-22, 07:30 AM

Originally posted by daneault23

Paver what's going on here. Are you saying to take the over on shots on goal every game?

Under. It is 11-2 now.

**jjgold** · 11-24-22, 08:27 AM

What’s the average juice?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 11-24-22, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

You realize the juice on that?

Laker, I think goals are coming. I say that for a few reasons:
1) We've already seen two missed PKs, which is unusual. 80% type of conversion.
2) In watching the broadcasts, I haven't seen any complaining about the weather. Haven't even seen any water breaks. With the misters, looks like ideal playing conditions (best I can tell).
3) If the betting markets react to a mini-trend of Unders...there could be value on the Over.

**pavyracer** · 11-24-22, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

What’s the average juice?

For Portugal/Ghana game if you take the under 8 it is -120. But if you want to be bold you can take the under 7.5 for +110.

But remember if a prop is 11-2 betting -120 lines is still profitable.

**pavyracer** · 11-24-22, 08:48 AM

1H in Uruguay/S.Korea has 0 shots on goal!

Looks like the prop will be 12-2 unless something extra ordinary happens 2H.

**Vene1616** · 11-25-22, 03:17 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

If you want to bet like a soccer professional bettor you have to do your homework.

This bet has been on a 10-2 run in the first 12 games.

It usually ranges between 8-9 for the -110 plus/minus line (juice could be higher or lower depending on the game).

It's more like 7-8 from a quick look at b365, only game today with evenly juiced (-120/-120) 8.5 is England/USA. Which I really like to the UNDER by the way!

Still a nice find! Tnx for sharing pavyracer

**newton0038** · 11-25-22, 02:43 PM

Are you guys having any issues with your books grading the SHOTS ON TARGET correctly? I'm using Northstarbets.ca and they have their results provider as OPTA DATA. Who the fuk is Opta? I'm in dispute with North as they have the Qatar/Senegal game as 8. FIFA has SOT 6. I had under 6.5 single and under 7.5 in a 4 teamer with the England/USA under 9.5.

**pavyracer** · 11-25-22, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by newton0038

Are you guys having any issues with your books grading the SHOTS ON TARGET correctly? I'm using Northstarbets.ca and they have their results provider as OPTA DATA. Who the fuk is Opta? I'm in dispute with North as they have the Qatar/Senegal game as 8. FIFA has SOT 6. I had under 6.5 single and under 7.5 in a 4 teamer with the England/USA under 9.5.

I just watched the game again in fast forward mode. Mendy had 2 saves and Bashaar had 1. I can't find the other Bashaar save. But even with 3 saves plus 4 goals this is 7 shots at goal minimum. I don't know where they are getting 6.

**svsooner** · 11-25-22, 06:10 PM

the next two games (Tunisia vs Aus & Poland vs Saudi) are both set at o/u 7.5 shots on goal. The France vs Denmark game is at 8.5 and the Mexico vs Argentina is at 9.5. Pass on first two and bet on the last two unders?

**stevek173** · 11-25-22, 07:23 PM

Paver knows best.

**pavyracer** · 11-25-22, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by svsooner

the next two games (Tunisia vs Aus & Poland vs Saudi) are both set at o/u 7.5 shots on goal. The France vs Denmark game is at 8.5 and the Mexico vs Argentina is at 9.5. Pass on first two and bet on the last two unders?

I think all games should be bet unders.

Tunisia and Australia don't create chances for goals. Saudi Arabia will park the bus for draw. France will play for a draw like England did today and Mexico can't shoot on target as they don't have a scorer in squad.

**newton0038** · 11-25-22, 07:48 PM

This is a fuked prop. It seems to be highly arbitrary. Some sites have 8 and some have 6. Quite obviously tge sites that display 6 are fed information from FIFA. The others I'm not sure how they are getting 8. This Opta data I have never heard 9f and even tryingvyo find their website is an obscure labyrinth of many sites that use the info but not an actual site to be had.

**pavyracer** · 11-25-22, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by newton0038

This is a fuked prop. It seems to be highly arbitrary. Some sites have 8 and some have 6. Quite obviously tge sites that display 6 are fed information from FIFA. The others I'm not sure how they are getting 8. This Opta data I have never heard 9f and even tryingvyo find their website is an obscure labyrinth of many sites that use the info but not an actual site to be had.

Here is what I found. If this is correct then we have at least 7 shots on goal. But I'm not sure about the 67' minute. Maybe FIFA concluded that the shot wasn't going in before the goalie touched it for a corner kick. You could argue that is 6 shots on target. Could SBR help you with a dispute?

16'

What a wasted opportunity by Krepin Diatta (Senegal)! He creates himself some space inside the penalty box and unleashes a decent strike towards the left side of the goal, but Meshaal Barsham makes an astonishing save to thwart him. Senegal have been awarded a corner kick.

41'
0 - 1

Goal! A mistake from the defence gifted a chance to a lurking Boulaye Dia (Senegal), who keeps his cool and rolls the ball into the net from close range. 0:1.

48'
0 - 2

Famara Diedhiou (Senegal) jumped highest inside the box to meet a perfectly executed corner kick by Ismail Jakobs. His header was precise and ended up inside the left post, leaving the goalkeeper flapping in the wind. The score is 0:2

63'

A defence-splitting pass is taken in his stride by Almoez Ali (Qatar) in the box. Without even looking up he drills a shot towards the bottom left corner, but Edouard Mendy pulls off a brilliant save. Qatar will take a corner kick.

67'

The ball is crossed into the box and Ismaeel Mohammad (Qatar) reacts quickest to send a shot flying towards the left side of the goal, but Edouard Mendy gets a glove on it to thwart him. Qatar force a corner. Their opponents will face another attacking threat.

78'
1 - 2

It's a goal! Mohammed Muntari (Qatar) makes it 1:2. He jumped highest to connect with a perfect cross from Ismaeel Mohammad and planted his close-range header into the left side of the goal. Edouard Mendy was helpless.

84'
1 - 3

Goal! A precise cut back on the goal line from Iliman Ndiaye finds Bamba Dieng (Senegal) right in front of goal, and he easily buries the ball into the middle of the goal. 1:3.

**newton0038** · 11-25-22, 08:27 PM

FIFA did have SOT at 7 then revised the stat to 6.
I'm puzzled as to wtf a book would use any other source or information than the governing body stat.
" We use Jimmy in his mom's basement for our offical stats, he has 25 SOT. Jimmy's stat is final."

**MoneylineExpress** · 11-25-22, 09:09 PM

Kylian Mbappe anytime goal scorer in every game France plays from here on out will be profitable. Best player in football.

**newton0038** · 11-25-22, 09:43 PM

Northstarbets is firm on their Opta service results. Now to file a complaint with the AGCO.
North also fuked up on my 2 teamer Florida/FSU over 13.5 1st quarter with FSU ML 1st quarter graded as a loss.
Will no doubt be 2 complaints to the AGCO.

**lakerboy** · 11-25-22, 09:57 PM

Most profitable bet has been the draw. That's fact.

**Mike Huntertz** · 11-25-22, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Most profitable bet has been the draw. That's fact.

Better to kiss your sister than risk losing is soccers mantra.
Never take a risk and fake an injury to draw a penalty.
With replay these guys are at best actors and very poor at it!
It could be a beautiful game but they need rule changes.

**pavyracer** · 11-25-22, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by newton0038

FIFA did have SOT at 7 then revised the stat to 6.
I'm puzzled as to wtf a book would use any other source or information than the governing body stat.
" We use Jimmy in his mom's basement for our offical stats, he has 25 SOT. Jimmy's stat is final."

I checked the OPTA scoresheet. I believe they counted 2 more shots at goal than FIFA. The one I mentioned earlier at minute 67 and another one on minute 57 which was actually not a save by the goalkeeper but a block from a defender. So it looks like if a defender blocks a shot that was going in they count it as a shot on goal even though it wasn't a goalkeeper save.

**svsooner** · 11-26-22, 01:12 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I think all games should be bet unders.

Tunisia and Australia don't create chances for goals. Saudi Arabia will park the bus for draw. France will play for a draw like England did today and Mexico can't shoot on target as they don't have a scorer in squad.

Alright, I'm putting a quarter unit on all the unders and see what happens.

**newton0038** · 11-26-22, 11:00 AM

That's odd as FIFA revised their results to 6 SOT

**pavyracer** · 11-26-22, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by newton0038

That's odd as FIFA revised their results to 6 SOT

Here is another one that confirms my suspicion.

Everyone has France shots at goal at 2 right now for HT because the goalie made 2 saves.

However, OPTA has 3 shots at goal.

And I saw what happened in the game. A defender blocked a shot at goal as the goalie didn't even have a chance to save it.

Access Denied

https://optaplayerstats.statsperform.com/en_GB/soccer/world-cup-2022-qatar/2a8elwzsufmguwymxbshcx756/match/france-vs-denmark/boonnukoavpo3nwio7lv6jrx0/live-match

France - Denmark 2:1

https://www.flashscore.com/match/M1F3f742/#/match-summary/match-statistics/0

WORLD: World Championship - Round 2

**svsooner** · 11-26-22, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by svsooner

Alright, I'm putting a quarter unit on all the unders and see what happens.

France v Denmark was a winner, as well as Tunisia v Aussie. Saudi v Poland was a loser. I didn't bet Argentina, so 2-1. I think the result of that game was under, so 3-1. So, do we up the antes a little?

**svsooner** · 11-26-22, 06:23 PM

I'm looking at the lines right now and Japan v Costa Rica is o/u 7.5 shots on goal, but the over is -120. Are these teams outliers?

**pavyracer** · 11-26-22, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by svsooner

I'm looking at the lines right now and Japan v Costa Rica is o/u 7.5 shots on goal, but the over is -120. Are these teams outliers?

I think what I'm going to do in this game is bet the under 7.5 but also bet the over 3.5 for Japan.

I did this today for Tunisia game. Bet under 7.5 but also over 3.5 Tunisia and cashed both.

**svsooner** · 11-26-22, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I think what I'm going to do in this game is bet the under 7.5 but also bet the over 3.5 for Japan.

I did this today for Tunisia game. Bet under 7.5 but also over 3.5 Tunisia and cashed both.

Ok, and unders for the rest?

**pavyracer** · 11-26-22, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by svsooner

Ok, and unders for the rest?

Belgium game definitely under. But the Croatia - Canada game could be open as Croatia will play for the win and Canada is good on counters so I don't feel very good for the under. A draw doesn't help anyone. Spain - Germany I won't bet the under. In fact if Japan beats Costa Rica earlier I would bet the over in shots on target and over in goals as Germany would go ALL IN for the win and Spain can hit them on counters.

**jjgold** · 11-26-22, 10:16 PM

Paper you’re using engineering to steer your way around soccer

**flyingillini** · 11-26-22, 10:36 PM

Good luck Pavster

**Enkhbat** · 11-27-22, 01:41 AM

The first half under 1 has been golden, either you win or get your money back.