1. #1
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    NFL week 12- Contrarian Angles

    NFL week 12- Contrarian Angles

    I'd lay out the parameters as such:
    1) Limit of one pick per week for a given poster.
    2) Totals are fair game.
    3) Quote a current price (vs -110 line or better). Can't just say "Team A".
    4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing. Have to state why you think the play is counter-intuitive and therefore likely to represent value.
    5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

    That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

  2. #2
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    wk01: 5-2 ATS
    wk02: 10-0 ATS
    wk03: 10-1 ATS.
    wk04: 10-8 ATS
    wk05: 7-6 ATS
    wk06: 8-4 ATS
    wk07: 7-8 ATS

    wk08: 9-8 ATS
    wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
    wk10: 7-5 ATS
    wk 11: 4-6ATS
    YTD: 78-53 ATS (.595)

    Thx to all for posting.
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  3. #3
    johnnyvegas13
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    Thx u chuck

  4. #4
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    Thx u chuck
    We're trying, John. Beating the # is not easy.

  5. #5
    TheLock
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    Cowboys -9 is the only thing on the contrarian radar for me so far in Week 12. Will see where the # goes before itís official play. If it moves against Cowboys automatic no-play for me.

  6. #6
    pologq
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    everyone is on the commanders bandwagon. i am taking the falcons +4 at -110. i think the falcons will either pull it out or come within a fg. they are playing for something and patterson is a big weapon all over the field.

  7. #7
    Stallion
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    Cowboys 1-10 ATS since 2011 on Thanksgiving

  8. #8
    italianbandit
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    Thank you Chuck, fun thread. Nice call on Detroit last week Lock. Dallas is my favorite contrarian lean on Thursday too. The short week makes it tough to cap though.

  9. #9
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by italianbandit View Post
    Thank you Chuck, fun thread. Nice call on Detroit last week Lock. Dallas is my favorite contrarian lean on Thursday too. The short week makes it tough to cap though.
    Yes, very quick turnaround.

  10. #10
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    everyone is on the commanders bandwagon. i am taking the falcons +4 at -110. i think the falcons will either pull it out or come within a fg. they are playing for something and patterson is a big weapon all over the field.
    Thank you, Polo. Will put ATL in the summary.

    Good Luck. And Happy Holidays. Hope you relax and eat heartily.

  11. #11
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Thank you, Polo. Will put ATL in the summary.

    Good Luck. And Happy Holidays. Hope you relax and eat heartily.
    same to your family

  12. #12
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stallion View Post
    Cowboys 1-10 ATS since 2011 on Thanksgiving
    Makes them even more contrarian

  13. #13
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by italianbandit View Post
    Thank you Chuck, fun thread. Nice call on Detroit last week Lock. Dallas is my favorite contrarian lean on Thursday too. The short week makes it tough to cap though.
    Thanks, pal.

  14. #14
    agendaman
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    just a reflection here.the cowboys pass rush is ferocious.they had 7 sacks last week.the giants have to run run the ball with saquon barkley and keep dak cee dee lamb etc. off the field.it is a bitter rivalry division game and a spread of -9 is a lot.still working on my weekly pick.
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  15. #15
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Playing: 252 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4

    ...+4 still available at -110.

    Jags off the bye and maybe forgotten about, deservedly so. I do think the Bye helps on the injury front. JAX looks pretty healthy, and Balt RB Edwards is still ?able.

    Jags are a very hard team to back. Even in a weak division, their playoff hopes are shot. Getting close to guys playing for jobs.

    Jags have top 10 Rush DEF. 110 rush ypg, 4.2 rush ypr. Don't think they'll get gouged by Jackson and any available RB.

    Jags have been heartbreak hotel on the close games this yr. 3-7 S/U but Net Margin +11.

    Jags do get some home support. Looking to hang the #.

    Good Luck. Hope everyone has a nice holiday.

  16. #16
    Booya711
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    Make a bet you fukking clown

  17. #17
    TheLock
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    Gonna give the Jags a look, Chucky.

  18. #18
    agendaman
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    here we go again folks.my wk.12 pick is 49rs-saints over the 43 total at -115.why.49rs havejust too many weapons.qb. j.grapps had 4 td passes last wk. plus deeboyk kttles and 2 fine rbs.n.o can score even with dalton.kamara always dangerous.so i give 9rs 30-35 pts. and n.o 14-17 pts.gl.to all of us.
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  19. #19
    italianbandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by agendaman View Post
    here we go again folks.my wk.12 pick is 49rs-saints over the 43 total at -115.why.49rs havejust too many weapons.qb. j.grapps had 4 td passes last wk. plus deeboyk kttles and 2 fine rbs.n.o can score even with dalton.kamara always dangerous.so i give 9rs 30-35 pts. and n.o 14-17 pts.gl.to all of us.
    Sure but thatís not a contrarian perspective.

  20. #20
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Summary of picks:

    252 JACKSONVILLE +4
    255 Atlanta +4
    271 no/sf OVER 43

  21. #21
    italianbandit
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    Actually agenda, my bad, I misread read your post. I thought you took Niners-9.5. Saints are the likely contrarian side. Good luck.

  22. #22
    Nate rasta
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    Give me the Giants +10

    Giants might win this outright but give me the 10 points and a pound of smoked turkey

  23. #23
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate rasta View Post
    Give me the Giants +10

    Giants might win this outright but give me the 10 points and a pound of smoked turkey
    Thanks, Nate. Will mark you down on Giants +10.

    Good Luck. And enjoy your holiday.

  24. #24
    GunShard
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    Secret betting trends: Fade these quarterbacks in primetime.






  25. #25
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Summary of picks:
    107 NY Giants +10
    252 JACKSONVILLE +4
    255 Atlanta +4
    271 no/sf OVER 43

  26. #26
    klemopixx
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    I can't see the Chiefs blowing out the Rams +15.5 with that defense. That's an insane spread for any team. I don't care if the Rams starting a high school QB, that defense will still pressure Mahomes enough to keep the score down. And it's not like the Chiefs are a menace on the other side of the ball. Chiefs will get lazy in the 4th quarter and let the Rams get that backdoor cover.

  27. #27
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stallion View Post
    Cowboys 1-10 ATS since 2011 on Thanksgiving
    Cowboys -10 -108 is my selection for Week 12

    Obviously Dallas giving double digits to a 7-3 team is contrarian.

    Happy Thanksgiving, boys.

  28. #28
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Summary of picks:
    107 NY Giants +10...with 108 DALLAS -10
    252 JACKSONVILLE +4
    255 Atlanta +4
    269 LA Rams +15.5
    271 no/sf OVER 43
    Lock's Dall pick offsets Nate's NYG +10.

    And adding Klemo's Ram pick.

  29. #29
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by klemopixx View Post
    I can't see the Chiefs blowing out the Rams +15.5 with that defense. That's an insane spread for any team. I don't care if the Rams starting a high school QB, that defense will still pressure Mahomes enough to keep the score down. And it's not like the Chiefs are a menace on the other side of the ball. Chiefs will get lazy in the 4th quarter and let the Rams get that backdoor cover.
    Thank you, Klemo. Very good points.

    Even adjusting for Stafford/Kupp...how could someone ever get to this mechanical projection? The +15.5 has to be a record for largest dog line for a defending Super Bowl champ.

    See the discussion last week. I think the DD lines are getting trickier to handicap. Sure, Rams +15.5 is going to show up on a lot of tickets. Doesn't mean it's Square. Can be guys identifying the Rams as value.

  30. #30
    TheRedZone
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    Not many turkey picks today. My pick is Cincinnati @ Tennessee giving 2 1/2. It reminds me of Dallas as a road favorite last week @ Minnesota.

    Cincinnati -2 1/2
    Last edited by TheRedZone; 11-24-22 at 12:22 PM.

  31. #31
    johnnyvegas13
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    I wonder if lion is even contrarian

  32. #32
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRedZone View Post
    Not many turkey picks today. My pick is Cincinnati @ Tennessee giving 2 1/2. It reminds me of Dallas as a road favorite last week @ Minnesota.

    Cincinnati -2 1/2
    Summary of picks:
    107 NY Giants +10...with 108 DALLAS -10
    252 JACKSONVILLE +4
    255 Atlanta +4
    259 Bengals -2.5
    269 LA Rams +15.5
    271 no/sf OVER 43

    Thank you, Red. CIN reports look like WR Chase might play.

  33. #33
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    Cowboys -10 -108 is my selection for Week 12

    Obviously Dallas giving double digits to a 7-3 team is contrarian..
    I didnít watch the game but if Iím reading the notes right the Giants scored a TD with 12 seconds left in the game to cover? Ugh.

  34. #34
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    I didnít watch the game but if Iím reading the notes right the Giants scored a TD with 12 seconds left in the game to cover? Ugh.
    Yup backdoor country

  35. #35
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    I didn’t watch the game but if I’m reading the notes right the Giants scored a TD with 12 seconds left in the game to cover? Ugh.
    Dirty backdoor cover. Also, DALL missed the late FG which would have extended the lead to 18.

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