NFL week 12- Contrarian Angles

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  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 37240

    #1
    NFL week 12- Contrarian Angles
    NFL week 12- Contrarian Angles

    I'd lay out the parameters as such:
    1) Limit of one pick per week for a given poster.
    2) Totals are fair game.
    3) Quote a current price (vs -110 line or better). Can't just say "Team A".
    4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing. Have to state why you think the play is counter-intuitive and therefore likely to represent value.
    5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

    That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
  • ChuckyTheGoat
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    • 04-04-11
    • 37240

    #2
    wk01: 5-2 ATS
    wk02: 10-0 ATS
    wk03: 10-1 ATS.
    wk04: 10-8 ATS
    wk05: 7-6 ATS
    wk06: 8-4 ATS
    wk07: 7-8 ATS

    wk08: 9-8 ATS
    wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
    wk10: 7-5 ATS
    wk 11: 4-6ATS
    YTD: 78-53 ATS (.595)

    Thx to all for posting.
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
    Comment
    • johnnyvegas13
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      • 05-21-15
      • 27893

      #3
      Thx u chuck
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      • ChuckyTheGoat
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 04-04-11
        • 37240

        #4
        Originally posted by johnnyvegas13
        Thx u chuck
        We're trying, John. Beating the # is not easy.
        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
        Comment
        • TheLock
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 04-06-08
          • 14427

          #5
          Cowboys -9 is the only thing on the contrarian radar for me so far in Week 12. Will see where the # goes before it’s official play. If it moves against Cowboys automatic no-play for me.
          Comment
          • pologq
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 10-07-12
            • 19899

            #6
            everyone is on the commanders bandwagon. i am taking the falcons +4 at -110. i think the falcons will either pull it out or come within a fg. they are playing for something and patterson is a big weapon all over the field.
            Comment
            • Stallion
              SBR MVP
              • 03-21-10
              • 3616

              #7
              Cowboys 1-10 ATS since 2011 on Thanksgiving
              Comment
              • italianbandit
                SBR MVP
                • 05-17-11
                • 2622

                #8
                Thank you Chuck, fun thread. Nice call on Detroit last week Lock. Dallas is my favorite contrarian lean on Thursday too. The short week makes it tough to cap though.
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 37240

                  #9
                  Originally posted by italianbandit
                  Thank you Chuck, fun thread. Nice call on Detroit last week Lock. Dallas is my favorite contrarian lean on Thursday too. The short week makes it tough to cap though.
                  Yes, very quick turnaround.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 04-04-11
                    • 37240

                    #10
                    Originally posted by pologq
                    everyone is on the commanders bandwagon. i am taking the falcons +4 at -110. i think the falcons will either pull it out or come within a fg. they are playing for something and patterson is a big weapon all over the field.
                    Thank you, Polo. Will put ATL in the summary.

                    Good Luck. And Happy Holidays. Hope you relax and eat heartily.
                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                    Comment
                    • pologq
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-07-12
                      • 19899

                      #11
                      Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                      Thank you, Polo. Will put ATL in the summary.

                      Good Luck. And Happy Holidays. Hope you relax and eat heartily.
                      same to your family
                      Comment
                      • TheLock
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 04-06-08
                        • 14427

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Stallion
                        Cowboys 1-10 ATS since 2011 on Thanksgiving
                        Makes them even more contrarian
                        Comment
                        • TheLock
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 04-06-08
                          • 14427

                          #13
                          Originally posted by italianbandit
                          Thank you Chuck, fun thread. Nice call on Detroit last week Lock. Dallas is my favorite contrarian lean on Thursday too. The short week makes it tough to cap though.
                          Thanks, pal.
                          Comment
                          • agendaman
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-01-11
                            • 3727

                            #14
                            just a reflection here.the cowboys pass rush is ferocious.they had 7 sacks last week.the giants have to run run the ball with saquon barkley and keep dak cee dee lamb etc. off the field.it is a bitter rivalry division game and a spread of -9 is a lot.still working on my weekly pick.
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                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 04-04-11
                              • 37240

                              #15
                              Playing: 252 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4

                              ...+4 still available at -110.

                              Jags off the bye and maybe forgotten about, deservedly so. I do think the Bye helps on the injury front. JAX looks pretty healthy, and Balt RB Edwards is still ?able.

                              Jags are a very hard team to back. Even in a weak division, their playoff hopes are shot. Getting close to guys playing for jobs.

                              Jags have top 10 Rush DEF. 110 rush ypg, 4.2 rush ypr. Don't think they'll get gouged by Jackson and any available RB.

                              Jags have been heartbreak hotel on the close games this yr. 3-7 S/U but Net Margin +11.

                              Jags do get some home support. Looking to hang the #.

                              Good Luck. Hope everyone has a nice holiday.
                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                              Comment
                              • Booya711
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 12-20-11
                                • 27329

                                #16
                                Make a bet you fukking clown
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                                • TheLock
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 04-06-08
                                  • 14427

                                  #17
                                  Gonna give the Jags a look, Chucky.
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                                  • agendaman
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-01-11
                                    • 3727

                                    #18
                                    here we go again folks.my wk.12 pick is 49rs-saints over the 43 total at -115.why.49rs havejust too many weapons.qb. j.grapps had 4 td passes last wk. plus deeboyk kttles and 2 fine rbs.n.o can score even with dalton.kamara always dangerous.so i give 9rs 30-35 pts. and n.o 14-17 pts.gl.to all of us.
                                    Comment
                                    • italianbandit
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-17-11
                                      • 2622

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by agendaman
                                      here we go again folks.my wk.12 pick is 49rs-saints over the 43 total at -115.why.49rs havejust too many weapons.qb. j.grapps had 4 td passes last wk. plus deeboyk kttles and 2 fine rbs.n.o can score even with dalton.kamara always dangerous.so i give 9rs 30-35 pts. and n.o 14-17 pts.gl.to all of us.
                                      Sure but that’s not a contrarian perspective.
                                      Comment
                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 04-04-11
                                        • 37240

                                        #20
                                        Summary of picks:

                                        252 JACKSONVILLE +4
                                        255 Atlanta +4
                                        271 no/sf OVER 43
                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                        Comment
                                        • italianbandit
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-17-11
                                          • 2622

                                          #21
                                          Actually agenda, my bad, I misread read your post. I thought you took Niners-9.5. Saints are the likely contrarian side. Good luck.
                                          Comment
                                          • Nate rasta
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-30-22
                                            • 2953

                                            #22
                                            Give me the Giants +10

                                            Giants might win this outright but give me the 10 points and a pound of smoked turkey
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                                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 04-04-11
                                              • 37240

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Nate rasta
                                              Give me the Giants +10

                                              Giants might win this outright but give me the 10 points and a pound of smoked turkey
                                              Thanks, Nate. Will mark you down on Giants +10.

                                              Good Luck. And enjoy your holiday.
                                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                              Comment
                                              • GunShard
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 03-05-10
                                                • 10031

                                                #24
                                                Secret betting trends: Fade these quarterbacks in primetime.





                                                Comment
                                                • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 04-04-11
                                                  • 37240

                                                  #25
                                                  Summary of picks:
                                                  107 NY Giants +10
                                                  252 JACKSONVILLE +4
                                                  255 Atlanta +4
                                                  271 no/sf OVER 43
                                                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • klemopixx
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-02-14
                                                    • 3807

                                                    #26
                                                    I can't see the Chiefs blowing out the Rams +15.5 with that defense. That's an insane spread for any team. I don't care if the Rams starting a high school QB, that defense will still pressure Mahomes enough to keep the score down. And it's not like the Chiefs are a menace on the other side of the ball. Chiefs will get lazy in the 4th quarter and let the Rams get that backdoor cover.
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                                                    • TheLock
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 04-06-08
                                                      • 14427

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Stallion
                                                      Cowboys 1-10 ATS since 2011 on Thanksgiving
                                                      Cowboys -10 -108 is my selection for Week 12

                                                      Obviously Dallas giving double digits to a 7-3 team is contrarian.

                                                      Happy Thanksgiving, boys.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 04-04-11
                                                        • 37240

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                        Summary of picks:
                                                        107 NY Giants +10...with 108 DALLAS -10
                                                        252 JACKSONVILLE +4
                                                        255 Atlanta +4
                                                        269 LA Rams +15.5
                                                        271 no/sf OVER 43
                                                        Lock's Dall pick offsets Nate's NYG +10.

                                                        And adding Klemo's Ram pick.
                                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 04-04-11
                                                          • 37240

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by klemopixx
                                                          I can't see the Chiefs blowing out the Rams +15.5 with that defense. That's an insane spread for any team. I don't care if the Rams starting a high school QB, that defense will still pressure Mahomes enough to keep the score down. And it's not like the Chiefs are a menace on the other side of the ball. Chiefs will get lazy in the 4th quarter and let the Rams get that backdoor cover.
                                                          Thank you, Klemo. Very good points.

                                                          Even adjusting for Stafford/Kupp...how could someone ever get to this mechanical projection? The +15.5 has to be a record for largest dog line for a defending Super Bowl champ.

                                                          See the discussion last week. I think the DD lines are getting trickier to handicap. Sure, Rams +15.5 is going to show up on a lot of tickets. Doesn't mean it's Square. Can be guys identifying the Rams as value.
                                                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TheRedZone
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 11-04-12
                                                            • 261

                                                            #30
                                                            Not many turkey picks today. My pick is Cincinnati @ Tennessee giving 2 1/2. It reminds me of Dallas as a road favorite last week @ Minnesota.

                                                            Cincinnati -2 1/2
                                                            Last edited by TheRedZone; 11-24-22, 12:22 PM.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • johnnyvegas13
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 05-21-15
                                                              • 27893

                                                              #31
                                                              I wonder if lion is even contrarian
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                                                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 04-04-11
                                                                • 37240

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by TheRedZone
                                                                Not many turkey picks today. My pick is Cincinnati @ Tennessee giving 2 1/2. It reminds me of Dallas as a road favorite last week @ Minnesota.

                                                                Cincinnati -2 1/2
                                                                Summary of picks:
                                                                107 NY Giants +10...with 108 DALLAS -10
                                                                252 JACKSONVILLE +4
                                                                255 Atlanta +4
                                                                259 Bengals -2.5
                                                                269 LA Rams +15.5
                                                                271 no/sf OVER 43

                                                                Thank you, Red. CIN reports look like WR Chase might play.
                                                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • TheLock
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 04-06-08
                                                                  • 14427

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by TheLock
                                                                  Cowboys -10 -108 is my selection for Week 12

                                                                  Obviously Dallas giving double digits to a 7-3 team is contrarian..
                                                                  I didn’t watch the game but if I’m reading the notes right the Giants scored a TD with 12 seconds left in the game to cover? Ugh.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • lakerboy
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 04-02-09
                                                                    • 94379

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by TheLock
                                                                    I didn’t watch the game but if I’m reading the notes right the Giants scored a TD with 12 seconds left in the game to cover? Ugh.
                                                                    Yup backdoor country
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 04-04-11
                                                                      • 37240

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by TheLock
                                                                      I didn’t watch the game but if I’m reading the notes right the Giants scored a TD with 12 seconds left in the game to cover? Ugh.
                                                                      Dirty backdoor cover. Also, DALL missed the late FG which would have extended the lead to 18.
                                                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                      Comment
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