1. #1
    jjgold
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    Anyone Smacking LSU Money Line?

    $10

  2. #2
    KVB
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    Good Luck Gold, I just can't find value there or I would take it.

    Don't even like the spread here. My non predicitve public gauge has an 11 point game, stacking percentages forecast go up to about an 18 point victory.

    One thing I do see, in many of the predictive forecasts, is an UNDER.

    Just how many points you think LSU is going to put up tonight?

    Sharpest forecast I make, shows a 21-3 game. Over the last 100 plays that forecast has been 50-47-3 against the closing spread and 52-46-2 against closing Totals, both measured with as little as .5 points discrepency from the closing line.

    Like the UNDER here, 57, 56.5 and even 56.


  3. #3
    KVB
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    Actually looking at the chalky UCLA moneyline you liked earlier. Might see some value.

    Maybe a parlay, where we can decrease our risk and increase our reward.



  4. #4
    KVB
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    LSu picks off Bama in the endzone after a strong, dominate, drive down the field.


  5. #5
    KVB
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    Nil-Nil after one!

    I hate leading early.


  6. #6
    KVB
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    LSU winning the feild position battle so far in the first half, that's for sure.

  7. #7
    KVB
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    There you go Gold, Bama sold out and LSU took advantage of the field position for a 30 yard TD.

    It's LSU's to lose. Hopefully it doesn't open the flood gates.

    Now we both have the sharks circling.


  8. #8
    jjgold
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    We love our position on LSU right now

  9. #9
    KVB
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    An even better position on the UNDER.

    One TD, 2 FG's.

    But it's a game of halves, Gold. We're not out of the woods yet, especially you.

    It's both of ours to lose.


  10. #10
    KVB
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    LIVE Total down to 37.5.


  11. #11
    KVB
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    One can learn a lot from this LIVE line setup....


  12. #12
    pavyracer
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    does this mean the game will end up 21-17 Alabama or LSU?

  13. #13
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    does this mean the game will end up 21-17 Alabama or LSU?
    No, wrong line of thinking. It's not about the result.

    It's about something more valuable. I know you'd rather make a bet that wins than a winning bet, but what can be learned from that screenshot is about making winning bets...a much more valuable talent in sports betting, one that is the difference between winning and losing over time.

    It's not a prediction of score. But if you want it to be, for you it can be. If it becomes the result, you can feel like a genius...as if you knew.

  14. #14
    jjgold
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    KVB the guy that writes 75 words and says nothing
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: pavyracer

  15. #15
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    KVB the guy that writes 75 words and says nothing


    I'm just waiting to give folks a chance to chime in.

    Pavy doesn't get the idea of value and price for points, so he likely won't get on the right line of thinking.

    But that's a lot of hints to what can be learned from the picture.

    The picture says more words than I did, that's on purpose.


  16. #16
    KVB
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    Here we go Gold.

    Only 23 points going into the 4th, UNDER looking good.

    Bama briefly turned to a dog LIVE, but that evaporated quick, I think you know why.

    It's LSU's to lose Gold, they came to play defense.


  17. #17
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Wow, got a shot.

    Alab OFF has dried up. Only FGs.

  18. #18
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...Bama briefly turned to a dog LIVE, but that evaporated quick, I think you know why...
    Bama such a force in the market, with their vig it's so hard to pick them up as dogs and with any lead it's impossible.

  19. #19
    KVB
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    Here we go Gold.

    LSU trying to make their move, down 21-17.

    They should be about +140 to +150 marketwide by my calculation. That will go up with every defensive tackle that stops a 1st down as time isn't much of an issue for LSU. Every 3rd down should bring near 2-1 odds.

  20. #20
    KVB
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    Touchdown Gold!!!!

    As Bama gets into two minute drill, maybe we get them as dogs again, I expect (from my spreadsheet) a +160 range (vig included), as a field goal opens the game up again.

    OT would splash my UNDER, so the sharks are back for me. It's been a 22 point 4th quarter and while there was room to score those points, it's a bummer to see them come, they approach the teaser range.


  21. #21
    KVB
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    Oh wow, Bama barely made the FG.

    That's not good for either of us, Gold.

    Pet the shark, Gold. Pet the shark...


  22. #22
    KVB
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    Welp Gold, we can't both win now.

    The shark caught up to us, and bit someone in the ass, maybe both of us.

    Not watching the rest.

    Good Luck, if you win congrats, if not, I feel you.


  23. #23
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Giddyup. Props, LSU.

  24. #24
    svsooner
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Here we go Gold.

    LSU trying to make their move, down 21-17.

    They should be about +140 to +150 marketwide by my calculation. That will go up with every defensive tackle that stops a 1st down as time isn't much of an issue for LSU. Every 3rd down should bring near 2-1 odds.
    Kev,

    Pardon my primitive mind, but is the goal to try to get + money bets on both sides?

  25. #25
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by svsooner View Post
    Kev,

    Pardon my primitive mind, but is the goal to try to get + money bets on both sides?
    Sometimes. It really does just depend but many times if available, I will take both dogs.

    Had both teams as dogs in the World Series tonight, that worked out.

    If I expect the opportunity is coming, I will buy extra of a dog position I deem +EV with the plan to sell part of that back if I can get a similar +EV LIVE bet.

    This can help even out some of the variance that comes with the pregame underdog bets. It is also a way to change the amounts in different accounts, or it can be.

    It can be a tricky beast though and you don't win them all, sometimes the opportunity to get the other side just doesn't come. Sometimes it comes early, sometimes it comes very late.

  26. #26
    stake1
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    Nice job Jj, Lsu ended Sabanís playoff chances tonite

  27. #27
    jjgold
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    Glad Saban out

  28. #28
    pologq
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    JJ solid call

    LSU showed great big balls

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