If Your Going To Build A Roll Its Not With Favorites

**pologq** · 10-20-22, 07:09 AM

astros were a good builder last night in a great spot

**jjgold** · 10-20-22, 08:26 AM

Yeah, but in the long term that that’s no good, when you get favorites, your win, percentage has to be very high, just to break even

**pologq** · 10-20-22, 08:28 AM

you are right. i just think if pick your spots with faves you are OK. plus the stros were -190 early in the morning. i think that was a fair price given the spot.

**lakerboy** · 10-20-22, 08:29 AM

You can do it but you have to pick spots. Mix and match

**inmyownzone** · 10-20-22, 08:54 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

You can do it but you have to pick spots. Mix and match

Facts

**inmyownzone** · 10-20-22, 08:54 AM

But for the most part, you’re right, coach.

**agendaman** · 10-20-22, 11:04 AM

after week 6 dogs are cashing at a 61.4 per cent rate in nfl.e agree jj.i am fed up with lasing on -240 chalk.

**pologq** · 10-20-22, 11:07 AM

i don't lay any chalk over -180 if i can help it. there are exceptions but i do not go over -200 at any point.

**OldBill** · 10-20-22, 11:11 AM

my easy system on ML sports bet half on any favs go full on any dog never lost when betting with locals then later in offshore sports books

ex fav is is -140 bet $70 DOG is +160 go for it

**KVB** · 10-20-22, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Yeah, but in the long term that that’s no good, when you get favorites, your win, percentage has to be very high, just to break even

But if they are a favorite won't they have a better chance of winning?

Gold, you are making a point but not actually making the point for the reasons it should be made.

Price is irrelevant and too many place on arbirtrary cap on the price they will pay.

While your breakeven is not just a function of price, but also of bet size, instead of focusing, for this topic, on lowering the breakeven point you should be talking more about margins and expected value of bets.

Talk about the vigorish and spreads on high prices being higher. Talk about the why, to show you understand it.

That would better serve the bettor.

**KVB** · 10-20-22, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

You can do it but you have to pick spots. Mix and match

Just like any bet, favorite, dog, pick em, favorites that turn to dogs, dogs that turn to favorites, dgos and favorites that become pick ems.

It's the same strategy all around.

"Since it cost a lot to win and even more to lose,
You and me bound to spend some time wondering what to choose."

**Machba** · 10-20-22, 12:32 PM

we will see about this after tonight . P.O.M #3 coming tonight and its a FAV!

**lakerboy** · 10-20-22, 12:36 PM

I think too many people have gotten into the thinking that you have to bet dogs to win.

**pologq** · 10-20-22, 01:13 PM

i agree laker. you can bet faves and win as long as you are not juiced to the gills on the fave side.

**GunShard** · 10-20-22, 01:26 PM

I was right about Carson Wentz Thursday night games winning record. Here's Andy Dalton worst night games road games losing record. Fade the Saints tonight.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Andy Dalton is 0-11 in his last 11 road primetime games�� <a href="https://t.co/6aE7OzayUl">pic.twitter.com/6aE7OzayUl</a></p>— PointsBet Sportsbook (@PointsBetUSA) <a href="https://twitter.com/PointsBetUSA/status/1583098340039802880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 20, 2022</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

**GunShard** · 10-20-22, 03:10 PM

Stick with the quarterback primetime records. It has been consistent. Andy Dalton is choking as predicted.

**SamsNCharge99** · 10-20-22, 03:28 PM

I eat chalk for breakfast