1. #1
    EGrecu
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    Do you guys believe you can win long term betting baseball teams who are very hot that are about to face very favorable matchups?

    I'll give you guys example - the Phils had won 7 of 9 games coming into the Nats series. They proceed to win all 4...same by Wipeout scores

    Are there any scenarios where a team is playing very focused, confident baseball but loses a series to a team they should dominate?

    Another example was the mets heading into marlins series. They had won 3 straight games and seem to have some real momentum...they won all 3 games vs Marlins by at least 2 runs


    edit: this isn't necessarily huge favorites either. The mariners were red hot and were facing a rangers team that they've dominated all year - the 3 games were like -110 lines on the moneyline. Mariners swept the series
    Last edited by EGrecu; 08-07-22 at 11:54 PM.

  2. #2
    TheGoldenGoose
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    The juice will eat you up after one loss.

  3. #3
    EGrecu
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose View Post
    The juice will eat you up after one loss.
    I don't bet moneylines - only RLs when the juice is over 200


    this isn't necessarily huge favorites either. The mariners were red hot and were facing a rangers team that they've dominated all year - the 3 games were like -110 lines on the moneyline. Mariners swept the series

  4. #4
    Orbison
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    who are you riding next?
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  5. #5
    EGrecu
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orbison View Post
    who are you riding next?
    Love the Mets tomorrow. They're just playing with extreme confidence and focus


    Other play is Baltimore +1.5 on the RL. That's more of a season wide thing. Not only is Baltimore 31-21 at home... 9 of their home losses are by only 1 run. You're talking literally 77% of their home games, they win or lose by only 1

  6. #6
    jjgold
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    Juices to high you will get destroyed

  7. #7
    pologq
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    this works if you take -1.5, -2 & even -2.5

    most of the time it is a good team against a shit team and the ML juice will kill you after one loss

    i know what you are saying with the mariners against the rangers. that i think is an outlier in your scenario.

    tonight the mets are heavy faves. they need to cover -2 to make it a good bet. i think they are -300 ML and -155 right now on -1.5 RL.

  8. #8
    EGrecu
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    this works if you take -1.5, -2 & even -2.5

    most of the time it is a good team against a shit team and the ML juice will kill you after one loss

    i know what you are saying with the mariners against the rangers. that i think is an outlier in your scenario.

    tonight the mets are heavy faves. they need to cover -2 to make it a good bet. i think they are -300 ML and -155 right now on -1.5 RL.
    Yes I'm only taking RLs

    I don't take ML over 200. It's impossible to succeed long term

  9. #9
    stevek173
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Juices to high you will get destroyed
    I will destroy YOU!
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  10. #10
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by EGrecu View Post
    Yes I'm only taking RLs

    I don't take ML over 200. It's impossible to succeed long term
    Do you take RL -2, -2.5, etc? Or do you just take the -1.5? With even -1.5 the juice is high now on a lot of good teams.

  11. #11
    EGrecu
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    Do you take RL -2, -2.5, etc? Or do you just take the -1.5? With even -1.5 the juice is high now on a lot of good teams.

    I think you can succeed long term taking -140s or 130s

  12. #12
    Waterstpub87
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    All of these types of things end up losing.

    You have to price the game. If your price is more accurate ( whether you calculate it, take it from a better book, or hit off market lines), you'll win long term. If it isn't, you'll lose the vig. If you have system that doesn't take price into account, you won't win longer term.

    I would expect this to perform poorly. People like to bet hot teams. They are priced accordingly. I tend to fade these things, because the prices are juiced, and have won on MLB sides for years straight.

  13. #13
    EGrecu
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    All of these types of things end up losing.

    You have to price the game. If your price is more accurate ( whether you calculate it, take it from a better book, or hit off market lines), you'll win long term. If it isn't, you'll lose the vig. If you have system that doesn't take price into account, you won't win longer term.

    I would expect this to perform poorly. People like to bet hot teams. They are priced accordingly. I tend to fade these things, because the prices are juiced, and have won on MLB sides for years straight.
    The prices are juiced? The Mets are getting -290 today vs the reds. The diamondbacks are getting about the same vs the pirates. The diamondbacks will win maybe 75 games this year. Mets have a chance at 110


    I don't think Vegas is as perfect as you guys claim. Baltimore has covered the spread this year as a 67% clip

  14. #14
    Waterstpub87
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    Yes, and Baltimore is a less public team.

    It's baseball. You have to account for the pitcher. Explains the price a little more.

    If betting good teams that are hot made money, no sportsbook would be in business. Its literally the biggest square idea in the universe. The only way to be more of a square is to parlay them on the moneyline.

  15. #15
    EGrecu
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    Yes, and Baltimore is a less public team.

    It's baseball. You have to account for the pitcher. Explains the price a little more.

    If betting good teams that are hot made money, no sportsbook would be in business. Its literally the biggest square idea in the universe. The only way to be more of a square is to parlay them on the moneyline.
    I'm not just advocating good hot teams. Orioles have been probably my number 1 most consistent team to bet on all year. I was all over Seattle when that hot streak started because they had very favorable matchups and still were getting reasonable lines - around 110 vs rangers


    But I love the Mets right now with the confidence and focus they're playing. I wouldn't touch the Yankees with a 10 foot stick

    There's also some teams who tend to play down to competition due to lack of focus. I wouldn't play the dodgers against bad teams TBH but against teams at least close to 500 and over 500, they're terrific. They've been great ATS all year

  16. #16
    EGrecu
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    2-0 today with orioles and mets


    Playing mets and phillies tomorrow. Prolly won't touch Baltimore. As good as they are, Alek Manoah is very very good

  17. #17
    texhooper
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    You’ve quit gambling like five times this season trying to win this exact same way every time.

    You make this forum a worse place
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  18. #18
    unde0087
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    You’ve quit gambling like five times this season trying to win this exact same way every time.

    You make this forum a worse place
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    texhooper gave unde0087 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


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