1. #1
    WireWire
    bRoKe DiK pRo
    WireWire's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-02-21
    Posts: 905
    Betpoints: 6049

    PRO tip.....

    Since 99.9999999% of all bettors just look at numbers do yourself a favor step back read watch interviews press conferences things of this nature, you can get a good feel for how players/athletes are thinking, or they could slip a nugget in that isn't factored into the number. For example, if you listened to Sean Strickland the UFC fighter leading up to this fight and you know how he normally is you could sense even he didn't think he would win this fight just buy the comments he was making, yet he went off as the FAVRIOTE. Don't just wager to wager unless you feel like you have some kind of advantage that the books won't have in just the numbers.

    Another example is Casper Rudd he said in an interview a few months prior to Wimbledon that he feels more comfortable playing golf on grass then tennis, what happened he faced Ugo Humbert in the round of 64 a guy who loves the grass and has already won a title on it this year but was a +170 DOG just because of the rankings. Yes, you guessed right Ugo won easily 3-1
    Points Awarded:

    Thrilla gave WireWire 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Thrilla
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/08/2022


  2. #2
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,857
    Betpoints: 736

    Quote Originally Posted by WireWire View Post
    Since 99.9999999% of all bettors just look at numbers do yourself a favor step back read watch interviews press conferences things of this nature, you can get a good feel for how players/athletes are thinking, or they could slip a nugget in that isn't factored into the number. For example, if you listened to Sean Strickland the UFC fighter leading up to this fight and you know how he normally is you could sense even he didn't think he would win this fight just buy the comments he was making, yet he went off as the FAVRIOTE. Don't just wager to wager unless you feel like you have some kind of advantage that the books won't have in just the numbers.

    Another example is Casper Rudd he said in an interview a few months prior to Wimbledon that he feels more comfortable playing golf on grass then tennis, what happened he faced Ugo Humbert in the round of 64 a guy who loves the grass and has already won a title on it this year but was a +170 DOG just because of the rankings. Yes, you guessed right Ugo won easily 3-1
    That as an excellent tip thanks pal

  3. #3
    pologq
    Only 2 Girls Short of a Threesome
    pologq's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-07-12
    Posts: 14,673
    Betpoints: 1072

    i agree. there is more than just numbers. good post.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Thrilla

  4. #4
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,518
    Betpoints: 12068

    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    i agree. there is more than just numbers. good post.
    I like subjective info like this. But there's also a confirmation Bias:

    *IE, if you hear something that sounds wise...and it plays out as such, that's surely an angle that you can play going forward.

    Not necessarily. There's always some randomness.

  5. #5
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,518
    Betpoints: 12068

    Some ideas on this, re: how you can find value:

    1) The classic "bulletin board material." If your opinion is partcularly divisive toward the upcoming foe, it can indeed provide a motivational spark.

    2) Coll Bask. Look for 1 or 2 teams that just missed the NCAA Bubble. If you hear coach/player saying they feel luke-warm, that's a tell. Syracuse HC Jim Boeheim spent two days bitching about missing the NCAAs. Obviously didn't spend that time prepping, St Bonav +14 was an ez cover.

    Coll FB. Same thing on the bigger bowl games. TCU had an awesome team, wanted to line up with Florida. Wasn't enough of a TV draw, they lined up w/ Boise St. Player leaked that they weren't too interested in Boise, Frog players wanted to play Florida. TCU lost S/U as Fav vs Boise.

  6. #6
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,518
    Betpoints: 12068

    3) Some years ago, last round of World Cup qualifiers. Arg/ECU were vying for last South American slot.

    Ecuador needed to win at Chile. Was a dead-rubber for Chile, who had already qualified.

    Thing is...Chile's HC was Argentinian-born. He wanted ARG to qualify. He fielded a solid lineup, CHI beat ECU to ensure Argentina's qualification.

  7. #7
    edawg
    edawg's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-09-11
    Posts: 2,521
    Betpoints: 64

    Tremendous tip games are played by human beings so psychology plays a huge role.

  8. #8
    texhooper
    texhooper's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-05-09
    Posts: 9,079
    Betpoints: 3645

    This is a good post and it might seem obvious, or some may even disagree completely, but I love gaining a nugget like this and having it on my side. You have to sort of cultivate your sixth sense on this, lotta times things mean nothing, but sometimes there’s stuff you need to act on, and you just gotta learn how to filter through all the bullshit and know when to act on it
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/08/2022


  9. #9
    pologq
    Only 2 Girls Short of a Threesome
    pologq's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-07-12
    Posts: 14,673
    Betpoints: 1072

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    I like subjective info like this. But there's also a confirmation Bias:

    *IE, if you hear something that sounds wise...and it plays out as such, that's surely an angle that you can play going forward.

    Not necessarily. There's always some randomness.
    i agree it is not an angle to always use. i like the tidbit of info though when factoring into my research and bet.

  10. #10
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,164
    Betpoints: 4114



    I thought it was a good laugh. You guys are walking in circles and don’t even know it.

    “So close no matter how far”

    Think about the value of quantifying what the OP is just guessing on and using for “feel”.

    Think about Texhooper’s post, He’s literally calling for you to turn it into numbers.

    The professional has a skill in that, he doesn’t ignore it and bet on “feel” like to OP is saying. Instead he makes adjustments to the numbers he is working with.

    Think about it.
    Last edited by KVB; 07-05-22 at 11:57 AM.

  11. #11
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,164
    Betpoints: 4114

    Quote Originally Posted by WireWire View Post
    ...Don't just wager to wager unless you feel like you have some kind of advantage that the books won't have in just the numbers...


    Pro's don't wager on feel. At least not in the sense you make it out to be.

  12. #12
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,164
    Betpoints: 4114

    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    This is a good post and it might seem obvious, or some may even disagree completely, but I love gaining a nugget like this and having it on my side. You have to sort of cultivate your sixth sense on this, lotta times things mean nothing, but sometimes there’s stuff you need to act on, and you just gotta learn how to filter through all the bullshit and know when to act on it
    This is where converting that nugget into a meaningful adjustment is what seperates a "pro" from the others.

    And yes, the entire OP post is confirmation bias, using two, and just two, examples of what "would have won" as decided after the fact.

    OP should now be able to produce instances where his same thought process did not work out for him.

    But since he never tracked any of it, he can't.

    Track your bets and why you made them, ascertain a real "feel" that isn't just a guess based on an interview.

    This is why tracking your bets and why you made them is valuable, instead of trying to find an "edge" you can't see over the book.
    Points Awarded:

    JohnGalt2341 gave KVB 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  13. #13
    KiDBaZkiT
    September 2021 POTM
    KiDBaZkiT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-20-09
    Posts: 15,286
    Betpoints: 933

    KVB been listening to Metallica this morning He was doing a parody of them in the shower this morning “Oh these numbers I don’t just crunch, and nothing else matters!”
    Points Awarded:

    texhooper gave KiDBaZkiT 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: KVB

  14. #14
    Darkside Magick
    The Ancient Order of the Illuminati
    Darkside Magick's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-28-10
    Posts: 12,293
    Betpoints: 24

    Making bets off interviews

  15. #15
    KiDBaZkiT
    September 2021 POTM
    KiDBaZkiT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-20-09
    Posts: 15,286
    Betpoints: 933

    KVB make a vocaroo on your ukulele of the opening clean riff of “Nothing Else Matters”

  16. #16
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,164
    Betpoints: 4114

    Quote Originally Posted by WireWire View Post
    ...Don't just wager to wager unless you feel like you have some kind of advantage that the books won't have in just the numbers...
    I encourge posters to read and re-read this sentence.

    Subjective bettors will run hot and cold and evetnually emotions will get to even the best of them, I've posted about emotions short circuiting rational thinking.

    But the OP is talking about overcoming vig here,even if he doesn't realize it, and implying he can determine an edge over the "number" without factoring in a number.

    That's simply not how it works.

  17. #17
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 79,164
    Betpoints: 4114

    Quote Originally Posted by KiDBaZkiT View Post
    KVB make a vocaroo on your ukulele of the opening clean riff of “Nothing Else Matters”
    Was thinking Metallica when I wrote that.




  18. #18
    DiggityDaggityDo
    DiggityDaggityDo's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-30-08
    Posts: 112,092
    Betpoints: 19158


  19. #19
    WireWire
    bRoKe DiK pRo
    WireWire's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-02-21
    Posts: 905
    Betpoints: 6049

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    I encourge posters to read and re-read this sentence.

    Subjective bettors will run hot and cold and evetnually emotions will get to even the best of them, I've posted about emotions short circuiting rational thinking.

    But the OP is talking about overcoming vig here,even if he doesn't realize it, and implying he can determine an edge over the "number" without factoring in a number.

    That's simply not how it works.
    Settle down KVB, we get it you're a "number cruncher" that's not going to work for majority of bettors, and there without a doubt is value in what I'm saying, now you can listen to 25 different interviews press conferences etc and still not find anything, I'm not saying it's easy to find but if watch and read enough things certain things will jump out that you can use that aren't factored into the numbers 100000000000000%. There is more than 1 way to skin a cat.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/08/2022


  20. #20
    KiDBaZkiT
    September 2021 POTM
    KiDBaZkiT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-20-09
    Posts: 15,286
    Betpoints: 933

    KVB you fukk!! Now I got that song stuck in my head. Fukkin Lars, most overrated drummer of all time.

  21. #21
    pavyracer
    MOLON LABE
    pavyracer's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-12-07
    Posts: 79,521
    Betpoints: 179

    If the numbers are not right you don't bet it period. How many times do I have to say? It's a numbers game. Study the math.

  22. #22
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,518
    Betpoints: 12068

    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    i agree it is not an angle to always use. i like the tidbit of info though when factoring into my research and bet.
    Polo, I actually lean to KVB's opinion in this thread.

    Remember that Alan Boston guy. He used to read every Coll Bask summary. No way that carves out an edge.

    So often, you kid yourself about playing into an edge. I'm saying that it can be applicable OCCASIONALLY. Sounds like your threshold is too light.

  23. #23
    Darkside Magick
    The Ancient Order of the Illuminati
    Darkside Magick's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-28-10
    Posts: 12,293
    Betpoints: 24

    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    If the numbers are not right you don't bet it period. How many times do I have to say? It's a numbers game. Study the math.
    The numbers are subjective... Who got the right numbers... I'm asking for somebody

  24. #24
    manny24
    pay Bobby
    manny24's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-22-07
    Posts: 20,292
    Betpoints: 945

    press conference bets are cool

    sometimes you can figure out which chicks are on the rag before the fights

  25. #25
    texhooper
    texhooper's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-05-09
    Posts: 9,079
    Betpoints: 3645

    Quote Originally Posted by manny24 View Post
    press conference bets are cool

    sometimes you can figure out which chicks are on the rag before the fights
    My favorite is when you use advanced audio software to detect one whispering “oh my god my pu$$y is killing me” to herself at the weigh-in

    Then autofade, all in

    NUGGETS
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/08/2022


  26. #26
    WireWire
    bRoKe DiK pRo
    WireWire's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-02-21
    Posts: 905
    Betpoints: 6049

    I will say this works well with individual sports tennis,golf,UFC etc more than team sports obviously, and like I said the more you do this the more you can piece together how a guy feels against somebody or where there confidence level is it's a skill like anything else, people assume these nuggets tips just come with ever interview or press conference or whatever it dont, but when it does I pound the shit out of it.

    Next time I find something I will post it in here, now I'm not saying this never going to lose but I will say since I've started doing this I'm well ahead. Now if you're a guy who loves to play 5-10 games a day and needs action disregard this because this isn't for you.
    Last edited by WireWire; 07-05-22 at 11:40 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    ChuckyTheGoat gave WireWire 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/08/2022


  27. #27
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,518
    Betpoints: 12068

    Quote Originally Posted by WireWire View Post
    I will say this works well with individual sports tennis,golf,UFC etc more than team sports obviously, and like I said the more you do this the more you can piece together how a guy feels against somebody or where there confidence level is it's a skill like anything else, people assume these nuggets tips just come with ever interview or press conference or whatever it dont, but when it does I pound the shit out of it.

    Next time I find something I will post it in here, now I'm not saying this never going to lose but I will say since I've started doing this I'm well ahead. Now if you're a guy who loves to play 5-10 games a day and needs action disregard this because this isn't for you.

  28. #28
    Thrilla
    Hillary my Queen
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,274
    Betpoints: 9068

    KVB settle down . Nobody is stupid in this thread. Ofcourse we will factor in the number with the edge we believe to have gained from an interview.

    So Djokovic faces a paralympian in a wheelchair tomorrow. Djkovic says that he was having shoulder pain after his last match while the wheelchair player said that he felt like in the form of his life, feeling super human.

    Odds are Djokov -233
    Wheelchair player +208

    You think we gonna bet the wheelchair player? da fuq

  29. #29
    DiggityDaggityDo
    DiggityDaggityDo's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-30-08
    Posts: 112,092
    Betpoints: 19158

    Thrilla is fired up today!

  30. #30
    KiDBaZkiT
    September 2021 POTM
    KiDBaZkiT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-20-09
    Posts: 15,286
    Betpoints: 933

    Quote Originally Posted by Thrilla View Post
    KVB settle down
    My guy gets a little defensive when people attack his coveted numbers and equations. Stubbornness is an advantage when capping games. If you let other people affect the process you use that you know is successful TO YOU it can lead to losses. Guys probably examining some pie charts and a graph as we speak.

  31. #31
    Thrilla
    Hillary my Queen
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,274
    Betpoints: 9068

    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    Thrilla is fired up today!
    at the Bing



  32. #32
    Darkside Magick
    The Ancient Order of the Illuminati
    Darkside Magick's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-28-10
    Posts: 12,293
    Betpoints: 24

    Quote Originally Posted by KiDBaZkiT View Post
    My guy gets a little defensive when people attack his coveted numbers and equations. Stubbornness is an advantage when capping games. If you let other people affect the process you use that you know is successful TO YOU it can lead to losses. Guys probably examining some pie charts and a graph as we speak.
    KVB is a great guy and poster.... BUT all the numbers and probability is all randomness and basically you looking for a pattern that your subconscious mind feels comfortable with... The human brain is built off patterns

  33. #33
    KiDBaZkiT
    September 2021 POTM
    KiDBaZkiT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-20-09
    Posts: 15,286
    Betpoints: 933

    Quote Originally Posted by Darkside Magick View Post
    KVB is a great guy and poster.... BUT all the numbers and probability is all randomness and basically you looking for a pattern that your subconscious mind feels comfortable with... The human brain is built off patterns
    You’re preaching to the choir here bro. I’m old school af.

  34. #34
    Darkside Magick
    The Ancient Order of the Illuminati
    Darkside Magick's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-28-10
    Posts: 12,293
    Betpoints: 24

    Quote Originally Posted by KiDBaZkiT View Post
    You’re preaching to the choir here bro. I’m old school af.
    The old school way is just Bayes Theorem.. I like a bet and I'm going with it.. You just not converting it into a odds ratio
    Points Awarded:

    JacketFan81 gave Darkside Magick 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  35. #35
    WireWire
    bRoKe DiK pRo
    WireWire's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-02-21
    Posts: 905
    Betpoints: 6049

    �� Found another nugget for ATP Newport later on today
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/08/2022


12 Last
Top