[WireWire]

Since 99.9999999% of all bettors just look at numbers do yourself a favor step back read watch interviews press conferences things of this nature, you can get a good feel for how players/athletes are thinking, or they could slip a nugget in that isn't factored into the number. For example, if you listened to Sean Strickland the UFC fighter leading up to this fight and you know how he normally is you could sense even he didn't think he would win this fight just buy the comments he was making, yet he went off as the FAVRIOTE. Don't just wager to wager unless you feel like you have some kind of advantage that the books won't have in just the numbers.

Another example is Casper Rudd he said in an interview a few months prior to Wimbledon that he feels more comfortable playing golf on grass then tennis, what happened he faced Ugo Humbert in the round of 64 a guy who loves the grass and has already won a title on it this year but was a +170 DOG just because of the rankings. Yes, you guessed right Ugo won easily 3-1

[jjgold]

Since 99.9999999% of all bettors just look at numbers do yourself a favor step back read watch interviews press conferences things of this nature, you can get a good feel for how players/athletes are thinking, or they could slip a nugget in that isn't factored into the number. For example, if you listened to Sean Strickland the UFC fighter leading up to this fight and you know how he normally is you could sense even he didn't think he would win this fight just buy the comments he was making, yet he went off as the FAVRIOTE. Don't just wager to wager unless you feel like you have some kind of advantage that the books won't have in just the numbers.

Another example is Casper Rudd he said in an interview a few months prior to Wimbledon that he feels more comfortable playing golf on grass then tennis, what happened he faced Ugo Humbert in the round of 64 a guy who loves the grass and has already won a title on it this year but was a +170 DOG just because of the rankings. Yes, you guessed right Ugo won easily 3-1

That as an excellent tip thanks pal

[pologq]

i agree. there is more than just numbers. good post.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i agree. there is more than just numbers. good post.

I like subjective info like this. But there's also a confirmation Bias:

*IE, if you hear something that sounds wise...and it plays out as such, that's surely an angle that you can play going forward.

Not necessarily. There's always some randomness.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Some ideas on this, re: how you can find value:

1) The classic "bulletin board material." If your opinion is partcularly divisive toward the upcoming foe, it can indeed provide a motivational spark.

2) Coll Bask. Look for 1 or 2 teams that just missed the NCAA Bubble. If you hear coach/player saying they feel luke-warm, that's a tell. Syracuse HC Jim Boeheim spent two days bitching about missing the NCAAs. Obviously didn't spend that time prepping, St Bonav +14 was an ez cover.

Coll FB. Same thing on the bigger bowl games. TCU had an awesome team, wanted to line up with Florida. Wasn't enough of a TV draw, they lined up w/ Boise St. Player leaked that they weren't too interested in Boise, Frog players wanted to play Florida. TCU lost S/U as Fav vs Boise.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

3) Some years ago, last round of World Cup qualifiers. Arg/ECU were vying for last South American slot.

Ecuador needed to win at Chile. Was a dead-rubber for Chile, who had already qualified.

Thing is...Chile's HC was Argentinian-born. He wanted ARG to qualify. He fielded a solid lineup, CHI beat ECU to ensure Argentina's qualification.

[edawg]

Tremendous tip games are played by human beings so psychology plays a huge role.

[texhooper]

This is a good post and it might seem obvious, or some may even disagree completely, but I love gaining a nugget like this and having it on my side. You have to sort of cultivate your sixth sense on this, lotta times things mean nothing, but sometimes there’s stuff you need to act on, and you just gotta learn how to filter through all the bullshit and know when to act on it

[pologq]

I like subjective info like this. But there's also a confirmation Bias:

*IE, if you hear something that sounds wise...and it plays out as such, that's surely an angle that you can play going forward.

Not necessarily. There's always some randomness.

i agree it is not an angle to always use. i like the tidbit of info though when factoring into my research and bet.

[KVB]

I thought it was a good laugh. You guys are walking in circles and don’t even know it.

“So close no matter how far”

Think about the value of quantifying what the OP is just guessing on and using for “feel”.

Think about Texhooper’s post, He’s literally calling for you to turn it into numbers.

The professional has a skill in that, he doesn’t ignore it and bet on “feel” like to OP is saying. Instead he makes adjustments to the numbers he is working with.

Think about it.

[KVB]

...Don't just wager to wager unless you feel like you have some kind of advantage that the books won't have in just the numbers...

Pro's don't wager on feel. At least not in the sense you make it out to be.

[KVB]

This is a good post and it might seem obvious, or some may even disagree completely, but I love gaining a nugget like this and having it on my side. You have to sort of cultivate your sixth sense on this, lotta times things mean nothing, but sometimes there’s stuff you need to act on, and you just gotta learn how to filter through all the bullshit and know when to act on it

This is where converting that nugget into a meaningful adjustment is what seperates a "pro" from the others.

And yes, the entire OP post is confirmation bias, using two, and just two, examples of what "would have won" as decided after the fact.

OP should now be able to produce instances where his same thought process did not work out for him.

But since he never tracked any of it, he can't.

Track your bets and why you made them, ascertain a real "feel" that isn't just a guess based on an interview.

This is why tracking your bets and why you made them is valuable, instead of trying to find an "edge" you can't see over the book.

[KiDBaZkiT]

KVB been listening to Metallica this morning He was doing a parody of them in the shower this morning “Oh these numbers I don’t just crunch, and nothing else matters!”

[Darkside Magick]

Making bets off interviews

[KiDBaZkiT]

KVB make a vocaroo on your ukulele of the opening clean riff of “Nothing Else Matters”

[KVB]

...Don't just wager to wager unless you feel like you have some kind of advantage that the books won't have in just the numbers...

I encourge posters to read and re-read this sentence.

Subjective bettors will run hot and cold and evetnually emotions will get to even the best of them, I've posted about emotions short circuiting rational thinking.

But the OP is talking about overcoming vig here,even if he doesn't realize it, and implying he can determine an edge over the "number" without factoring in a number.

That's simply not how it works.

[KVB]

KVB make a vocaroo on your ukulele of the opening clean riff of “Nothing Else Matters”

Was thinking Metallica when I wrote that.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[WireWire]

I encourge posters to read and re-read this sentence.

Subjective bettors will run hot and cold and evetnually emotions will get to even the best of them, I've posted about emotions short circuiting rational thinking.

But the OP is talking about overcoming vig here,even if he doesn't realize it, and implying he can determine an edge over the "number" without factoring in a number.

That's simply not how it works.

Settle down KVB, we get it you're a "number cruncher" that's not going to work for majority of bettors, and there without a doubt is value in what I'm saying, now you can listen to 25 different interviews press conferences etc and still not find anything, I'm not saying it's easy to find but if watch and read enough things certain things will jump out that you can use that aren't factored into the numbers 100000000000000%. There is more than 1 way to skin a cat.

[KiDBaZkiT]

KVB you fukk!! Now I got that song stuck in my head. Fukkin Lars, most overrated drummer of all time.

[pavyracer]

If the numbers are not right you don't bet it period. How many times do I have to say? It's a numbers game. Study the math.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i agree it is not an angle to always use. i like the tidbit of info though when factoring into my research and bet.

Polo, I actually lean to KVB's opinion in this thread.

Remember that Alan Boston guy. He used to read every Coll Bask summary. No way that carves out an edge.

So often, you kid yourself about playing into an edge. I'm saying that it can be applicable OCCASIONALLY. Sounds like your threshold is too light.

[Darkside Magick]

If the numbers are not right you don't bet it period. How many times do I have to say? It's a numbers game. Study the math.

The numbers are subjective... Who got the right numbers... I'm asking for somebody

[manny24]

press conference bets are cool

sometimes you can figure out which chicks are on the rag before the fights

[texhooper]

press conference bets are cool

sometimes you can figure out which chicks are on the rag before the fights

My favorite is when you use advanced audio software to detect one whispering “oh my god my pu$$y is killing me” to herself at the weigh-in

Then autofade, all in

NUGGETS

[WireWire]

I will say this works well with individual sports tennis,golf,UFC etc more than team sports obviously, and like I said the more you do this the more you can piece together how a guy feels against somebody or where there confidence level is it's a skill like anything else, people assume these nuggets tips just come with ever interview or press conference or whatever it dont, but when it does I pound the shit out of it.

Next time I find something I will post it in here, now I'm not saying this never going to lose but I will say since I've started doing this I'm well ahead. Now if you're a guy who loves to play 5-10 games a day and needs action disregard this because this isn't for you.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I will say this works well with individual sports tennis,golf,UFC etc more than team sports obviously, and like I said the more you do this the more you can piece together how a guy feels against somebody or where there confidence level is it's a skill like anything else, people assume these nuggets tips just come with ever interview or press conference or whatever it dont, but when it does I pound the shit out of it.

Next time I find something I will post it in here, now I'm not saying this never going to lose but I will say since I've started doing this I'm well ahead. Now if you're a guy who loves to play 5-10 games a day and needs action disregard this because this isn't for you.

[Thrilla]

KVB settle down . Nobody is stupid in this thread. Ofcourse we will factor in the number with the edge we believe to have gained from an interview.

So Djokovic faces a paralympian in a wheelchair tomorrow. Djkovic says that he was having shoulder pain after his last match while the wheelchair player said that he felt like in the form of his life, feeling super human.

Odds are Djokov -233
Wheelchair player +208

You think we gonna bet the wheelchair player? da fuq

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Thrilla is fired up today!

[KiDBaZkiT]

KVB settle down

My guy gets a little defensive when people attack his coveted numbers and equations. Stubbornness is an advantage when capping games. If you let other people affect the process you use that you know is successful TO YOU it can lead to losses. Guys probably examining some pie charts and a graph as we speak.

[Thrilla]

Thrilla is fired up today!

at the Bing

[Darkside Magick]

My guy gets a little defensive when people attack his coveted numbers and equations. Stubbornness is an advantage when capping games. If you let other people affect the process you use that you know is successful TO YOU it can lead to losses. Guys probably examining some pie charts and a graph as we speak.

KVB is a great guy and poster.... BUT all the numbers and probability is all randomness and basically you looking for a pattern that your subconscious mind feels comfortable with... The human brain is built off patterns

[KiDBaZkiT]

KVB is a great guy and poster.... BUT all the numbers and probability is all randomness and basically you looking for a pattern that your subconscious mind feels comfortable with... The human brain is built off patterns

You’re preaching to the choir here bro. I’m old school af.

[Darkside Magick]

You’re preaching to the choir here bro. I’m old school af.

The old school way is just Bayes Theorem.. I like a bet and I'm going with it.. You just not converting it into a odds ratio

[WireWire]

�� Found another nugget for ATP Newport later on today