1. #1
    jjgold
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    Why Is It When Game Looks Too Good It Loses?

    I say 65% of time

  2. #2
    juicername
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    Also jjgold "if I only bet the games I like I would be up big."

    How can the jjgold shifts not have a shared content plan by now?

  3. #3
    A1t2b3t
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  4. #4
    clockwise1965
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    So true.. When the game looks good on paper. It usually loses.

    Case in point: Avalanche last night.

  5. #5
    Thrilla
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  6. #6
    iwantcougars
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    true, i was obsessed with phillies over 7 yesterday, and it ended 1-0

  7. #7
    agendaman
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    also a lenghy long-winded analysis of a game seems to jinx the pick chosen.

  8. #8
    KVB
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    The biggest reason that a game that “looks too good“ ends up losing is because you are not looking at the appropriate relevant factors to predict the game.

    Chances are you’re looking at some other factors likely public ones that swing or exploit emotion but are not predictors of outcomes.

    It may also be that you watched previous games and even though what you saw is not predicted the future outcomes it’s still strong enough to sway your emotions and affect how you bet on the next games.

    Finally, the market tends to swell and build up and then let down different types of bettors, this happens to everyone.

    Stop betting teams and start estimating and betting value. This is the answer to this age old problem for bettors.

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  9. #9
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by iwantcougars View Post
    true, i was obsessed with phillies over 7 yesterday, and it ended 1-0
    I had a no vig line of about -113/+113 with Philly the favorite. I did not want to impact the openers the night before, so I did not buy Philly cheap at -109. Philly grew well over -120 and that was no longer a good bet for me I was hoping it would drop back down. Instead the market pushed the line up and San Diego became +120 so value was there for me.

    I started the day watching the lines for a Philly bet, but ended up taking San Diego. Got value, and also got lucky with a win.

    That’s what I mean when I say betting value in my post above.
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  10. #10
    Machba
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    The biggest reason that a game that “looks too good“ ends up losing is because you are not looking at the appropriate relevant factors to predict the game.

    Chances are you’re looking at some other factors likely public ones that swing or exploit emotion but are not predictors of outcomes.

    It may also be that you watched previous games and even though what you saw is not predicted the future outcomes it’s still strong enough to sway your emotions and affect how you bet on the next games.

    Finally, the market tends to swell and build up and then let down different types of bettors, this happens to everyone.

    Stop betting teams and start estimating and betting value. This is the answer to this age old problem for bettors.

    Exactly 💯

  11. #11
    Da Manster!
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    The biggest reason that a game that “looks too good“ ends up losing is because you are not looking at the appropriate relevant factors to predict the game.

    Chances are you’re looking at some other factors likely public ones that swing or exploit emotion but are not predictors of outcomes.

    It may also be that you watched previous games and even though what you saw is not predicted the future outcomes it’s still strong enough to sway your emotions and affect how you bet on the next games.

    Finally, the market tends to swell and build up and then let down different types of bettors, this happens to everyone.

    Stop betting teams and start estimating and betting value. This is the answer to this age old problem for bettors.

    KVB speaks the truth!...when you consider emotional factors multiplied by reverse reciprocal theories, you have the tendency to over-evaluate a team's performance based on quantitative factors and theological deductive reasoning...it's for this very exact reason why we as cappers can't overcompensate for appropriated depositions and other market mutual funds which may or may not effect the direct outcome of a game...back in 1964 when a Tsunami devastated Indonesia it sent out a rippling effect via the coriolis force we actually facilitated a regression to the means and predispose the distant boundaries between the various dimensions of now (the present) and the hereafter (post-death)...it's this type of kinetic energy that is the crazy glue which binds us all together...what does all of this valuable information translate into??!!.....

    Red Sox@Guardians (over 8.5) for 8 units!...
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  12. #12
    gauchojake
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    Because you're an idiot dad
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  13. #13
    JIBBBY
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    It's called the dreaded trap play. When any game looks to good and the odds are way off it often time loses. Like the SD Padres game the other night at home with their undefeated pitcher on the mound against a shit team, the odds looked great. Looked like a lock.

    Padres then got smoked in that game.

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  14. #14
    jjgold
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    KVB always the guy with reason

    Good On paper games we must fade

  15. #15
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    I had a no vig line of about -113/+113 with Philly the favorite. I did not want to impact the openers the night before, so I did not buy Philly cheap at -109. Philly grew well over -120 and that was no longer a good bet for me I was hoping it would drop back down. Instead the market pushed the line up and San Diego became +120 so value was there for me.

    I started the day watching the lines for a Philly bet, but ended up taking San Diego. Got value, and also got lucky with a win.

    That’s what I mean when I say betting value in my post above.
    very interesting to see the thought process

  16. #16
    KiDBaZkiT
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    Cuz most people don’t know what they are doing or how to cap.

  17. #17
    clockwise1965
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    Its hard to win.

  18. #18
    Snowball
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    jj is very sharp

    too bad he doesn't take it seriously

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