[Headsterx]

The lead has changed.

But there is a lot of time left.

Despite seeing NJ dominate on the field, I almost hit Philly at +160, but couldn't get down.

I think tide has changed. Generals look like they are going to control the rest of this game. -130 live.

[KVB]

I think tide has changed. Generals look like they are going to control the rest of this game. -130 live.

Yeah we have flipped.

May not come down to ml/spread after all.

NJ has been the better team all game.

[Headsterx]

That 4th pass was a big gain. I can’t believe that was their 4th pass of the game.😂

[Headsterx]

And don’t forget, FNF is back with our favorite team to laugh at… Mualers v. Stars on May 6.

[Headsterx]

Just heard Maulers coach will be a guest on So Dumb It’s Criminal.

[nick1976]

My projected Week 4 Lines:

Philadelphia -3 39
New Jersey -7 37
Birmingham -5 42
New Orleans -3 43

[KVB]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">RULES UPDATE: In order to maximize fan enjoyment and keep games under 3 hours, during the 1st and 3rd quarters we&#39;re moving to a running clock after an incomplete pass. <br><br>Head of Officiating <a href="https://twitter.com/MikePereira?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MikePe reira</a> breaks down the latest rule change that will begin in Week 4 ⬇️ <a href="https://t.co/JPsuC5Rfoy">pic.twitter.com/JPsuC5Rfoy</a></p>&mdash; USFL (@USFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/USFL/status/1522276862667358214?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >May 5, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[KVB]

A petition to represent the approximately 360 USFL players was recently filed at the National Labor Relations Board, and the league has until May 10 to post the petition in the workplace.

Spring football is a tough financial proposition, littering the sports landscape with bankruptcies, failed leagues and lawsuits. Bringing in organized labor within the first few weeks of the launch of the USFL could be viewed as a worrying sign, as the organizers have strived to keep costs down so much the league is playing all its games in one city, Birmingham, Ala. Players are paid up to $5,000 per game in most cases.

https://theathletic.com/3297820/2022...-steelworkers/

I think USFL pizzagate spurned a call for a Union.

[Headsterx]

Friday Night Football!

Stars v. Panthers (-1.5)

[KVB]

All four Totals dropped this week, some pretty far, perhaps on news of the running clock after incomplete passes in the 1st and 3rd quarter.

[KVB]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&quot;When you watch USFL highlights, they look like Sunday highlights.” <a href="https://twitter.com/ColinCowherd?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Colin Cowherd</a> is all in on the USFL �� <br><br>(via <a href="https://twitter.com/TheHerd?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TheHerd</a>) <a href="https://t.co/fTLRBrXBpw">pic.twitter.com/fTLRBrXBpw</a></p>&mdash; USFL (@USFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/USFL/status/1522696194329235456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >May 6, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[KVB]

Once again I almost want to review last week, including mistakes made, instead of going forward so I'm not going to write much now.

I mentioned that we would see more and more bettors enter the league as the season progresses and I can see this week another batch, or layer, of origination and bookmaking techniques added to the market, there to suck bedttors in.

I mentioned pairs and the need for a favorite and dog, and last week we saw the favorite come back and win, not covering, then the UPSET. The next day it was the favortie covering, then the UPSET. There are a pair of games Saturday.

Tonights game actually had an early opener of Philly -3.5 and it quckly traded down while many houses picked it up at pk or even Mich -1. We still do not have even a rudimentary forecast, we need week 4 to go off, but I do make some gauges.

I'm debating how much to acutally share here, but we haven't had a game that initiated one gauge until this week. Now we have all four games with the spread as a gauge. I call it the KVB Tru Pik.

Today's Tru Pik is Philly. Now against the Circa open it's Philly -3.5, but against the current line it's +1, +1.5, or even +2. This gauge represents the measure of give and take in the market. This is the backbone of the gauge and I am working on expanding it for the USFL.

It does not surprise me that the first game show a spread difference like this. If Philly wins by two we have ambiguity on the first play of the week, first play of the gauge, etc.

In fact I have such faith in the gauge, and the market that I would be willing to buy Philly +112 here but the fact is, this is a pass and the number 3 overall draft pick in the USFL is injured in Philly QB Bryan Scott.

He was also leading the league in passing yards.

Philly is the better team, they really are, and the backup QB wasn't too bad. I would not be surprised if Philly competes here, we could even get the OVER.

In fact the paper bet for this game is the two pick, but the Philly injury makes it tought to swallow...

Philly +2
OVER 33

1-1 is the spoiler here and depending on which one gets taken away, it will help determine the direction of money this week.

It's probably Philly, I expect Michigan to go on a run after winning the battle for ass of the league (or not losing it), but it doesn't have to happen just yet

But Philly could be in trouble with a QB injury. We'll have to see.

Otherwise, going to pass on this game.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bryan Scott is on the sideline after suffering an injury in the first half <a href="https://t.co/tzsZejQx3s">pic.twitter.com/tzsZejQx3s</a></p>&mdash; Philadelphia Stars (@USFLStars) <a href="https://twitter.com/USFLStars/status/1520945651739152384?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >May 2, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[KVB]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Go Stars �� <a href="https://t.co/nji0CMI3kP">pic.twitter.com/nji0CMI3kP</a></p>&mdash; Bryan Scott (@BryanScottQb) <a href="https://twitter.com/BryanScottQb/status/1521969699407515649?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >May 4, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Headsterx]

What channel is this game at? We’re drunk at the bar and can’t find the damn game!

[KVB]

...Philly +2
OVER 33
...

Going to go ahead and make this the two pick...

Philly +1.5
OVER 33

BM had the +2 out there, I even considered the +112 from them, but they adjusted down. +1.5 is the market line.

[KVB]

Tomorrow ass of the League Pitt is going to be facing a 10 point line.

Probably should be thinking about the -9 or -9.5 before they are gone.

[KVB]

What channel is this game at? We’re drunk at the bar and can’t find the damn game!

FS1

Starts in 15 minutes.

[KVB]

Going to go ahead and make this the two pick...

Philly +1.5
OVER 33

BM had the +2 out there, I even considered the +112 from them, but they adjusted down. +1.5 is the market line.

Notice I'm taking a half point of the paper two pick. I'm not trying to win or lose and prove something, I will take either. What I want to know is how that bet settles. That's why it's paper.

Then we move from there.

But I did like Philly here as a Tru Pik.

[KVB]

...BM had the +2 out there, I even considered the +112 from them, but they adjusted down. +1.5 is the market line.

Late money coming in on Philly, that +2 and +112 at BM is now a pickem line at -108.

Circa back to pk as well.

[Headsterx]

FS1

Starts in 15 minutes.

Hell yeah! It’s going to be long night.

[KVB]

Philly with the ball first, was hoping Mich would be the first to score.

I would consider Philly LIVE, perhaps a little better line for that Tru Pik.

That might be worth a market shot.

[KVB]

So after three weeks let's look at the Totals markets.

There have been 12 games and even though UNDERS are 8-4 and there has been some wild variance, the average margin of total scores from the closing market is just -2.3 points.

Here is the average season to date Total Margin from the closing spread for each team. The lightest blue line at -2.3 represents the league average, the yellow lines are a standard deviation...




Notice Michigan, the darker blue line, a team with a 1-2 record and has given up only 27 points in 3 games. They average -17.8 againts the closing Total, that likely won't last.

It will be tough for the defenses to stay stout in such a round robin league and everyone will regress towards the standard deviation in the chart above.

Tonight's Total opened early at 37, the lowest open so far, until tommorrow's Pitt game, and dropped to 33, the lowest close so far. The uncertain QB situation was certainly a factor, but so was Michigan.

This game has already gone OVER satisfying one leg of the moneyflow two pick.

Tomorrow's game with NJ and Pitt opened at 35.5 and has also dropped to 33. Things tend to come in pairs. Totals also have a Tru Pik gauge, which began two weeks ago and of which the OVER was the signal tonight, measuring the give and take of the markets. I'll get into that later.

[Headsterx]

Going to go ahead and make this the two pick...

Philly +1.5
OVER 33

BM had the +2 out there, I even considered the +112 from them, but they adjusted down. +1.5 is the market line.

Nice hit on both with a little bit of luck at the end. These kickers throughout the league are horrible.

[Headsterx]

We got NHL playoffs, NBA playoffs, baseball (but with many games postponed), UFC and boxing but if you want to be entertained come watch the worst head coach in sports...

Generals (-10) v. Maulers

[Headsterx]

Oh yeah, and Kentucky Derby 🐎

[KVB]

...Today's Tru Pik is Philly. Now against the Circa open it's Philly -3.5, but against the current line it's +1, +1.5, or even +2. This gauge represents the measure of give and take in the market. This is the backbone of the gauge and I am working on expanding it for the USFL.

It does not surprise me that the first game show a spread difference like this. If Philly wins by two we have ambiguity on the first play of the week, first play of the gauge, etc.

In fact I have such faith in the gauge, and the market that I would be willing to buy Philly +112...

Philly winning by 1 served the same purpose of ambiguity.

lol

[KVB]

Tomorrow ass of the League Pitt is going to be facing a 10 point line.

Probably should be thinking about the -9 or -9.5 before they are gone...

We got NHL playoffs, NBA playoffs, baseball (but with many games postponed), UFC and boxing but if you want to be entertained come watch the worst head coach in sports...

Generals (-10) v. Maulers...

I tend to agree here with the Generals but the money flow two paper bet is the two pick...

Pitt +10.5
OVER 32.5

Both of these plays represent Tru Piks and I am taking a market shot with...

NJ/PITT OVER 32.5 (-105)

Knew I was taking the OVER last night, but I was waiting last night for the line to drop off of 33, there seem to be indications that it would. I am countering this drop with the OVER.

When it comes to the spread, as big as it is, I am not taking Pitt here, they are the ass of the league and trying to time their spread cover with a large spread at this point is not in the cards for us, even if the moneyflow two pick parlay calls for it.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I didn't talk much about the flow of money but it sure seems like the market is selling a bit of NJ here.

But that's just it, reasons to take Pitt in the give and take market will add up, and it's my belief that it is simply one of many techniques to draw the market analyst to Pitt.

But Pitt is not , they are ass.

I think there are some -9.5's still out there, they are tempting.

Perhaps we look LIVE.

When it comes to game 2 today I am not making a moneyflow parlay until we gain information from game 1. The market will know we seek this information, as such game 1 could be deceiving down the stretch. Could be.

Some value has technically been taken out of TB already, but remember Brimingham are the diry birds of the league so far.

[Headsterx]

I tend to agree here with the Generals but the money flow two paper bet is the two pick...

Pitt +10.5
OVER 32.5

Both of these plays represent Tru Piks and I am taking a market shot with...

NJ/PITT OVER 32.5 (-105)

Knew I was taking the OVER last night, but I was waiting last night for the line to drop off of 33, there seem to be indications that it would. I am countering this drop with the OVER.

When it comes to the spread, as big as it is, I am not taking Pitt here, they are the ass of the league and trying to time their spread cover with a large spread at this point is not in the cards for us, even if the moneyflow two pick parlay calls for it.

Good Luck.

I'm nervous on the over with the rule change. Plus, don't both teams tend to run more than passing. But I'll take a stab and take over.

[jjgold]

clipped a few winners thanks to you guys!

[KVB]

I'm nervous on the over with the rule change. Plus, don't both teams tend to run more than passing. But I'll take a stab and take over.

Yeah, and we countering the line move. I think the market is selling , to a certain extent, the UNDER here. Remember the week two settlemetn? The two pick was NO and UNDER.

The UNDER bettors in that game will try again here, adding another group to the side.

When you take a piece of paper and divide it into two columns, and list the reason for or against a team in each side, I feel there's a an extreme. The side with reasons to buy the OVER or not the UNDER doesn't really have anything.

In the give and take world it's even worse. Those expoliting the line, the situation, etc, got paid last night. In fact they even got the two pick. Too many reasons to not take the OVER again.

One thing we are missing here are forecasts and public gauges. That's a pretty big deal.

[KVB]

I tend to agree here with the Generals but the money flow two paper bet is the two pick...

Pitt +10.5
OVER 32.5

Both of these plays represent Tru Piks and I am taking a market shot with...

NJ/PITT OVER 32.5 (-105)

...When it comes to the spread, as big as it is, I am not taking Pitt here, they are the ass of the league and trying to time their spread cover with a large spread at this point is not in the cards for us, even if the moneyflow two pick parlay calls for it...

So these are the words of advice from and for the patient gambler, the patient analyst. That said, I'm going to speculate that Pitt remans ass and if I'm wrong Pitt could outright win the game....

In fact, if it's the OVER, I don't think it's Pitt. But Pitt just came off of the season's first shut out.

If it was the NFL, and a team was coming off the first shutout like this, then they get a 10 point line, you know anything can happen.

Can't rule out the back door cover here, which could bode well for the OVER. Even so, I'm going out on a limb with a +281 offer from Bet105's reduced juice parlay...

NJ -10 (-105)
OVER 32.5 (-105)

Pays +281.

I'm gambling that the story continues to be Pitt's failure here but I would not be surprised if they show some life today.

We are playing USFL a little loose today, I'm trying to outsmart the moneyflow two pick and speculate that Pitt will be ass of the league for some time. If I'm wrong and Pitt even wins outright, then perhaps the ass of the league will be handed to TB.

Can't rule out the potential moneyflow two pick of Pit/Birm today. We really can't. The first 10 point line of the season being an UPSET should surprise no one.

But I'm gambling on the other side of that coin for +281 and basically doubling down on the OVER.

Do not try this at home...lol.

[KVB]

Bet105 is a reduced juice book that has us at times treated us well, but there are limit issues all around. Shouldn't be a problem for the majority of bettors but I've burned more than one out there already.

lol

[mcaulay777]

Went and signed upped to Peacock to see if the Usfl is free nope its part of the Premium package so no day game for me!

[KVB]

Went and signed upped to Peacock to see if the Usfl is free nope its part of the Premium package so no day game for me!

Yeah, can't even get a stream.