[ABEHONEST]

I've been thinking this game over--who hasn't--even though the Books say Duke's ML is 1.90 or so, UNC is hot and has a ton of momentum rolling.
Duke had 2 close games out of their last three and showed some possible vulnerability in both those two games.

Meanwhile, UNC has 3 won of the last 4 games rather handily--including 2 blowouts--an OT win over Baylor, co-favorite with Gonzaga to win it all. But they got the job done.
And throw that nice win over UCLA, who was highly ranked.
I just don't know about the 4 points quite yet? I may change my mind in 2 days, but I have doubts about that.
And get this, they are at 5/1 dogs to win the NCAA? And if they do win Sat. and Kansa also wins, the experts say UNC will be another 4 to 6 dog.

So the Books are high on Kansas, no doubt? And will be even favored over Duke if both get there.


I don't believe I will be betting on Kansas if that scenario gets there?

[pavyracer]

Final will be NC vs Kansas.

These are the two best teams left.

[ABEHONEST]

Final will be NC vs Kansas.

These are the two best teams left.

Just maybe? Both will have very strong momentum riding for them.

[ABEHONEST]

Just when I thought Duke was going to drop to 3 1/2, they do the opposite? I also thought Kansas would be the one to go to 4 1/2?
So, who wants to guess just what is truly going on here?
Me: Is it the Book's sole idea to change these two lines by that 1//2 point because Kansas was 4 1/2 a few days ago and you can still find that number if you shop around?

Or, was it the heavy wagering that moved both these lines?
* Come on JJ, you're the Bruce Springfield on SBR, give us some insight?
Also, JJ, you may want to tell your 1200 followers, "Hey, it's okay to have a different opinion
than of Abes, and suggest that they are not in danger of him turning his Lion loose on them even if they do offer an opposite opinion?"

[flakeandbake]

It looks like MLs for a stack. Stick the spreads in the ceiling fans this weekend. Can always hedge out if need be

[johnnyvegas13]

Final will be NC vs Kansas.

These are the two best teams left.

Something tells me one will lose

duke Kansas is square

[ABEHONEST]

Vegas, how about clearing up that opinion?

[johnnyvegas13]

Vegas, how about clearing up that opinion?

Just saying good chance one gets upset

i don’t care tho I am done w this tourney

[ABEHONEST]

I see. The good or the bad will soon be over.
G.L. next year.

[BuckyOne]

I agree with you that it has been rough play in the tournament. If that is what it is that is fine. As long as the reffing doesn't decide to call it close now and the players have to make an adjustment!

[flakeandbake]

Something tells me one will lose

duke Kansas is square

This tourney has been an all you can eat square dance —hasn’t it? One of my boys has a perfect final four in both brackets (98.2% percentile) and he’s usually a go-to fade for years.

I’ve went from 56--67% during the season to below 33% in the tourney (< 20% if looking only at pregame picks. I can win live/ neutral games but no pregame picks) 😶

[flakeandbake]

Something tells me one will lose

duke Kansas is square

My friend I mentioned could figure out the squarer side if it was Skip vs Stephen A. He has Kansas > Duke to win it and his biggest fear is “duke wins it all” All I hear is “gotta save up for Kansas” and he actually bet a friend on duke -10 even $ lol (getting cocky)

Im oppo, if it happens the way people expect on paper I’ll be getting buried. When I first saw the bracket I thought it looked impossible and he just said it was the “easiest bracket he’s ever seen in his life” (congrats).

Kind of strange that the ticket % is on Nova and UNC — but most ppl are chasing the steam and not even thinking about the games/ teams at this point. The scripts been egregious but I need to learn to square it up. I’m trying it here because I’m confident I would be able to flip sides early if and hop back on Nova/ UNC if they pull an upset.

I started to fade myself specifically in the college football bowl games and NIT 3-5 years ago and have been a smooth sale in those spots ever since — square AF/ opposite until the very last game or so. So I may have to adopt the same theory in NFL playoffs (at least wild card weekend) and March madness (seems there’s 1 or 2 good tourneys every 5-10 years. The last was when Michigan lost to Nova. Same friend was a fade machine that tourney).

Also, is it just that high level fixed or are people that good/ incredible at getting people off their shit and riding winners/ blowing steam? The streakiness and consistency of the same script just seems like bullshit and it continues until ppl get wiped

[flakeandbake]

There’s my rant of the day to those on a freezer

[johnnyvegas13]

I didn’t do that dad I hit saint peter vs dew

that is my point tho big upsets r done and not worth it on these 4 pt dogs

[flakeandbake]

I didn’t do that dad I hit saint peter vs dew

that is my point tho big upsets r done and not worth it on these 4 pt dogs

True/ sad story - I hit SPU for 3K vs Kentucky and about 4-5k vs Purdue. But I let those come to me vs picking them. And I’m still down on the tourney. Maybe my problem is discipline but if im picking 20-30% on pregame picks / leans it doesn’t matter how many SPUs there are

[pavyracer]

The pressure is all on Duke. NC is playing with house money in this game.

[flakeandbake]

The pressure is all on Duke. NC is playing with house money in this game.

That’s what I’m saying though. There’s always something that makes you want to fade the f*ck out of these square public joe teams. I’m loaded SCU, Kansas and Duke ML and all I think about is when I’m going to flip onto Kansas and UNC. I could really see Nova getting smoked here (because they just look so much like a play). Idk about Duke/ UNC yet (feel like I usually want to fade the shit out of duke but all this bad talking on them makes me almost lean Duke) — which would make UNC a play immediately

[ABEHONEST]

The pressure is all on Duke. NC is playing with house money in this game.

I still do not understand UNC low ranking?
They were only 1 or 2 games away from ripping Duke when the tourney stated. The biggest clash all year in the ACC.
ESPN just stated--is this true--UNC was a 100/1 shot to win the tourney soon before it kicked off? Where was I at when that supposed longshot was offered?

Did the Books forget they beat Baylor a couple of weeks ago? And still considered to be the dog, along with Villanova. in this Final Four?

Okay Mr. K go out there and prove the Books right if you can?

[pavyracer]

I still do not understand UNC low ranking?
They were only 1 or 2 games away from ripping Duke when the tourney stated. The biggest clash all year in the ACC.
ESPN just stated--is this true--UNC was a 100/1 shot to win the tourney soon before it kicked off? Where was I at when that supposed longshot was offered?

Did the Books forget they beat Baylor a couple of weeks ago? And still considered to be the dog, along with Villanova. in this Final Four?

Okay Mr. K go out there and prove the Books right if you can?

The books know what they are doing. Look at what happened last night. Texas A&M -5, -220 ML. Look at that juice on the ML! Everyone bets Texas A&M because they say they can't lose! Look at what happened. Books murdered the public.

Same concept with Duke. -4 and -180 ML. They can't lose right? What happens when they lose? The book took all the public's money.

The point is the books set up the lines in a way that will induce the public to make juicy bets that are more profitable for them. NC may be a better team than Duke. But in the eyes of the books the public will bet more on Duke if they make them favorite.

[d2bets]

The books know what they are doing. Look at what happened last night. Texas A&M -5, -220 ML. Look at that juice on the ML! Everyone bets Texas A&M because they say they can't lose! Look at what happened. Books murdered the public.

Same concept with Duke. -4 and -180 ML. They can't lose right? What happens when they lose? The book took all the public's money.

The point is the books set up the lines in a way that will induce the public to make juicy bets that are more profitable for them. NC may be a better team than Duke. But in the eyes of the books the public will bet more on Duke if they make them favorite.

Really? So you think the public wouldn't bet Duke if they were +4? It would be 99% on Duke.

[ABEHONEST]

Yes, the Books are normally in charge and don't forget, they are dealt an automatic Ace in the hole before you even wager, and meanwhile, you always start with a pair of Duces?

[beefcake]

I still do not understand UNC low ranking?
They were only 1 or 2 games away from ripping Duke when the tourney stated. The biggest clash all year in the ACC.
ESPN just stated--is this true--UNC was a 100/1 shot to win the tourney soon before it kicked off? Where was I at when that supposed longshot was offered?

Did the Books forget they beat Baylor a couple of weeks ago? And still considered to be the dog, along with Villanova. in this Final Four?

Okay Mr. K go out there and prove the Books right if you can?

I have a ticket on UNC AT 170-1 made on march 7th..100-1 was a piss poor line but it prob fell after they won at cameron

[ABEHONEST]

I have a ticket on UNC AT 170-1 made on march 7th..100-1 was a piss poor line but it prob fell after they won at cameron

I would trade you for that "lock" Gonzaga and my longshot favorite, Michigan?
Those tickets may be worth a fortune in 5 decades?

[OldBill]

i can almost guarantee these games are fixed

i remember one finals the champ was up by 5 points - 2.5 chalk other team player sinks a 3 and loses game by 2 and HE's pumping his fist after sinking a meaningless 3 pointer

BUT thier aint no more local bookies because it's legal most every state

and now the biggest damn state CALIF. is joining the rest OMG alaredy have card rooms and casinos all over omg they will kill Vegas and Reno

BETTER step it up Vegas

[ABEHONEST]

i can almost guarantee these games are fixed

i remember one finals the champ was up by 5 points - 2.5 chalk other team player sinks a 3 and loses game by 2 and HE's pumping his fist after sinking a meaningless 3 pointer

BUT thier aint no more local bookies because it's legal most every state

and now the biggest damn state CALIF. is joining the rest OMG alaredy have card rooms and casinos all over omg they will kill Vegas and Reno

BETTER step it up Vegas

Thanks, Old Bill, for not mentioning Biden or Trump, my stomach is already flopping enough, so again, I thank you.
Even though--I know--illegal on PT, even seeing the B guy's face has my tummy doing flip-flops. So keep up the good work.

* Should we just block each other?

[pavyracer]

[beefcake]

Time to hedge that future!!