Arkansas opens -5.5 against Vermont?

[pilebuck13]

Weird Arkansas seems to Easy what am I missing

[Tanko]

I know Arkansas struggled against Colgate in the 1H in the opening game last year AND Vermont's style of play will challenge Arkansas, but -5.5 is waaaaaayyy to low IMO.

This is nuts.

[Da Manster!]

@pilebuck...Vermont wins outright but I will gladly take the 5.5 points...


@Tanko...what does it tell you when Vegas thinks a #4 seed is only 5.5 points better than the #13 seed they are playing?...clearly that the committee fukked up by underseeding Vermont (at least a 10 IMO) or overseeding Arkansas

[pilebuck13]

I know Arkansas struggled against Colgate in the 1H in the opening game last year AND Vermont's style of play will challenge Arkansas, but -5.5 is waaaaaayyy to low IMO.

This is nuts.

Right why the books hanging that line like that

[DrunkHorseplayer]

The linesmakers are smarter than the committee; bet accordingly.

[stevenash]

@pilebuck...Vermont wins outright but I will gladly take the 5.5 points...


@Tanko...what does it tell you when Vegas thinks a #4 seed is only 5.5 points better than the #13 seed they are playing?...clearly that the committee fukked up by underseeding Vermont (at least a 10 IMO) or overseeding Arkansas

This.
Groovy UV is legit!
They have a cult following and everything here in New England.

Seen UV play six or so times this year.
Totally legit mid-major.

[KRIT]

Musselman teams are usually an easy fade in the tourney. Their style of play usually allows teams to hang around. Haven't watched a lot of Arky this year, but his past teams usually play high tempo with little to no defense. I remember his high seeded Nevada team getting knocked off early.

[texhooper]

Because Vermont is badass and old as shit. Top ten usage players are 1 soph 1 jr and 8 seniors. I wish they drew someone else besides Arkansas because I think Arkansas is legit and they’re pretty experienced as well but I have been thinking Vermont would be a dangerous team in the field and this spread doesn’t surprise me that much.

I just wish it wasn’t goddamn Arkansas. I’ll have to mull it over some and see what happens with the line and whatnot

[texhooper]

Musselman teams are usually an easy fade in the tourney. Their style of play usually allows teams to hang around. Haven't watched a lot of Arky this year, but his past teams usually play high tempo with little to no defense. I remember his high seeded Nevada team getting knocked off early.

He never actually had a high seeded Nevada team. That last one with the twins and Jordan Caroline was supposed to be amazing and go undefeated but they had a disappointing 7 seed and may have even lost in the first round to Florida I think.

I do see what you’re saying though but just the dudes Arkansas has and their ability to come up clutch down the stretch, they’ve been really good about closing games lately and I just feel like taking 5 is too flimsy in the tournament with an athletically disadvantaged opponent fouling relentlessly down the stretch. But I don’t know, maybe I’ll change my mind and take Vermont. I really had every intention of taking Vermont in the first round but I just don’t care much for this matchup. Or maybe I’ll end up taking the bait with Arkansas haha…I don’t know. Should be a good game regardless

[LT Profits]

I saw 6.5 opener and now down to 5 flat.

[TheMetsSuck]

I hammered the 6.5 opener. I took Colgate +7.5 vs my badgers as well

[Pigpen]

Musselman teams are usually an easy fade in the tourney. Their style of play usually allows teams to hang around. Haven't watched a lot of Arky this year, but his past teams usually play high tempo with little to no defense. I remember his high seeded Nevada team getting knocked off early.

I agree you have not watched this team much this year. I have not looked into Vermont but they will have to earn their points IMO

[teecee]

I wouldn't lay more than 3 with Arkansas in this spot.

[pilebuck13]

I don’t know this Vermont team but I do know everyone and there mom loves Arkansas and they play in a tough conference.

[jjgold]

Linesmakers are rarely wrong

It’s why gamblers broke and books rich

[stevenash]

Linesmakers are rarely wrong

It’s why gamblers broke and books rich

I was about to say line makers aren't in the business of hanging bad lines in a high profile tournament, and there's a reason why it opened at -6 and getting driven down,

[stevenash]

Just read this off the Action blog:



Vermont vs. Arkansas


Thursday | 9:20 p.m. ET | TNT

It’s only Monday, but the early Vermont vs. Arkansas betting trends are already setting this game up as classic case of sharps vs. squares.

Sixty-three percent of spread tickets have landed on Arkansas to this point, but every other data point suggests that wiseguys have already taken a position on Vermont.

First, despite attracting just 37% of the spread action, 74% of the actual money wagered has come in on the Catamounts, suggesting that the biggest bets are backing the underdogs.

Second, Action Labs’ Bet Signals, which track and report professional betting action in real-time, are reporting two steam moves on Vermont.

Steam refers to sudden, uniform line movement across the market that is often the result of bettors with the respect and resources to move odds getting down on the same side of the same game at multiple sportsbooks, all at once.

And finally, line movement doesn’t lie, so it’s not at all surprising to see that Vermont has dropped from +6.5 to between +5.5 and +5, depending on the sportsbook, as oddsmaker react to the influx of smart money.

[masr]

Vt is legit...I learned the hard way

[pilebuck13]

Seems like the opener would have been the number to get I understand the steam looks like we possibly see a buy back on Arkansas soon I’d assume

[stevenash]

Who knows, I've seen these types of situations go the other way too.

I learned a long time ago, and now I preach to anybody who'll listen...

"Don't get mind f*cked by the line, if you like the side, then bet the side, don't let the number mind f*ck you out of your bet"
Back in the day, I used to second guess my original position only to get hosed.

"Like the side, bet the side"
But you can't ignore the early action.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Who knows, I've seen these types of situations go the other way too.

I learned a long time ago, and now I preach to anybody who'll listen...

"Don't get mind f*cked by the line, if you like the side, then bet the side, don't let the number mind f*ck you out of your bet"
Back in the day, I used to second guess my original position only to get hosed.

"Like the side, bet the side"
But you can't ignore the early action.

Then when you lose the side you originally liked you tell yourself, I knew that line was a trap. You're mindfukked either way

[stevenash]

^
I also say just bet it and forget it.

[Crusherrr]

Just take Arkansas live when Vermont is up at half. Otherwise- no bet. Vermont won every game in their conference tournament by 30+ I believe. They're hot and experienced.

[Tanko]

All the love for Vermont in this thread is pushing me towards Arkansas.

[MinnesotaFats]

I don't see much D in this one, isn't the 139.5 # a little low? Both teams should get into the 70s w plenty of time left

[pavyracer]

Vermont is a Sweet Sixteen team. They will give Arkansas trouble with their speed.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Just take Arkansas live when Vermont is up at half. Otherwise- no bet. Vermont won every game in their conference tournament by 30+ I believe. They're hot and experienced.

The flip side is that they played one ranked team all year; they lost by 11 on the road against No. 21 Maryland. It was the third game of the year which means Maryland's rank was based on hype instead of results and Maryland proceeded to end up 15-17. Arkansas is light years the best team they've played this year.

[stevenash]

The flip side is that they played one ranked team all year; they lost by 11 on the road against No. 21 Maryland. It was the third game of the year which means Maryland's rank was based on hype instead of results and Maryland proceeded to end up 15-17. Arkansas is light years the best team they've played this year.

Which means what, exactly?

[DrunkHorseplayer]

It means that Vermont's destruction of their conference competition doesn't mean much.

[stevenash]

It means that Vermont's destruction of their conference competition doesn't mean much.

Sure it does, it means they whooped up their peers, and earned the right to step up in class.

[jjgold]

Arkansas ML

Lets make it simple

[ThaTopMoron]

I'm using Vermont in my opening round 4 game parlay where I take -110 to -140 ml max and toss in a couple of the no doubter ML like Baylor and Zags first half ML

thinking over North Carolina

and fading Ohio State

think Carolina will play real hard and take care of the ball to make sure Davis doesn't go out in the first round in his first year

Ohio State vs Loyola... well... look at the defensive ranks of each team and how the Buckeyes have performed recently... 2 man show...

[sweethook]

be careful , lot of killers on arkansas's team

[pilebuck13]

I don't see much D in this one, isn't the 139.5 # a little low? Both teams should get into the 70s w plenty of time left

Agree

[pilebuck13]

4.5 @ bookmaker