You can’t beat the juice

[Bostongambler]

Cuz he’s an idiot nasher, that’s why.


He just posted you have to win 52.8% of the time to be profitable then the very next thread I read is him taking Utah -115. Doesn’t that skew the numbers. Lol

[Bostongambler]

Standard vig requires 52.8% to be profitable, 55% for a high volume bettor to make good money. Many people do this, you can't, you don't understand math or gambling.

You do realize for your posted plays out here for the last 2-3 years you are hitting maybe 30-35 %, correct?

[stevenash]

Standard vig requires 52.8% to be profitable, 55% for a high volume bettor to make good money. Many people do this, you can't, you don't understand math or gambling.

You're not going to get me into a flame war, I'll leave your ridiculous I don't know math alone.

What percentage of sports bettors win at a 55 percent or better rate.

I'll debate you fact for fact though if you wish, right here, right now.
No name calling, no flaming, just facts.

Q. What percentage of players win at a 55% plus rate?

[stevenash]

Cuz he’s an idiot nasher, that’s why.


He just posted you have to win 52.8% of the time to be profitable then the very next thread I read is him taking Utah -115. Doesn’t that skew the numbers. Lol

I know what I'm getting myself into here.
Same tired tricks, "I don't know this" type of remarks.

If he wants to debate math topics like binomial distribution, probability, means, I'm here for him to debate in a civil manner.
It is after all what I do for a living, I'm comfortable debating this with him.

[thomorino]

The gambling industry is no different than most other industries.

90% of gamblers make little to no money. The top 10% make most of the profits, the top 1% makes almost a third of the overall money.

That's the bell curve in almost every industry.

The vig can be beaten and smart bookmakers know that - that's why they kickout and limit people everyday.

The books advantage is they charge vig - my advantage is I decide what I bet and how much I bet.

[thomorino]

Cuz he’s an idiot nasher, that’s why.


He just posted you have to win 52.8% of the time to be profitable then the very next thread I read is him taking Utah -115. Doesn’t that skew the numbers. Lol

The 52.8% win percentage presumes 10 cent lines - dumb post. I obviously think I'll win more than 52.8% of the time if I'm betting a 15 cent or greater line.

[stevenash]

You're just dancing around the questions.

[thomorino]

You're not going to get me into a flame war, I'll leave your ridiculous I don't know math alone.

What percentage of sports bettors win at a 55 percent or better rate.

I'll debate you fact for fact though if you wish, right here, right now.
No name calling, no flaming, just facts.

Q. What percentage of players win at a 55% plus rate?

Stop talking.

I am not disputing the argument that most players are not profitable.

I said the gambling industry, like nearly every other industry, 10% make 90% of the profits. The top 1% makes nearly half the profits.

That's the gambling industry, that's most industries.

Most people in most professions don't make the much money, that's why the median salary in the US is less than 40k.

Most bankers make under 100k - some make 10 million a year.

[thomorino]

You're just dancing around the questions.

It is an absolute and undisputed fact that many players like myself are profitable, we consistently beat the vig.

That's why books limits and kick players out - each and everyday.

[chico2663]

I win every bet until I actually put money on. I lose every real bet.

[thomorino]

You do realize for your posted plays out here for the last 2-3 years you are hitting maybe 30-35 %, correct?

Wrong, my records are strong across the board.

Post a thread tracking your fades like little headsterx - it's always a failure.

[stevenash]

The 52.8% win percentage presumes 10 cent lines - dumb post. I obviously think I'll win more than 52.8% of the time if I'm betting a 15 cent or greater line.

This where I jump off.
Do you seriously believe that.

Unreal

[thomorino]

[QUOTE=stevenash;30798035]This where I jump off.
Do you seriously believe that.

I know that, your comments are ignorant and unreal.

[ABEHONEST]

That is all.

Ba BaBeeGGee?
Afterall I've taught you, you're still not listening?
First of all, you seem [or do] have a loser's attitude? Get off that negative HS right now.
This: If you have no worthwhile [or any] winning resume in the past 2 or 3 years, why would anyone believe you can win at this treacherous basketball sport?

Watch and learn and try to decifpher your losing teams and see if you can determine the reason they didn't cover.
Sure, sometimes like Gonz and Duke, your team is simply overwhelmed. Or, maybe this reason; the team is worn down by this late time of the season?
Highly ranked and fighting to win every game, and add; many times only getting 48 hours of mental/physical rest.

Was Duke worn down yesterday? Were the Zags? We know for sure, in those two games, which 2 teams were revved up and ready for a superp effort against these 2 high ranked teams.

BBAabbeeeGGG, are you awake now and ready to give every once of your brain and body strenght to take on another day of one of the toughest sports, ever, to win money?
So show me now or keep of the; lazy bad work?

*This big 7' Williams, as I mentioned before, was hurt someway in the previous game.
And he only played 26 miniutes Sat., but had great numbers. 16 pnts and 13 rbs.

My hunch says is was not quite fit for that game?

[stevenash]

Let's use the number -118
The decimal odds are 1.84

Let's give you a hypothetical bankroll of $10,000.
100 flat bets at $100 dollars a bet using -118

Decimal odds like I mentioned on -118 is 1.84, which means for every $100 dollar bet you lost you pay 118, for every $100 bet you won, you collect 100.

If you won 54 times you'd collect 5400, and lost 46 times you'd pay out 5428 (-118 x 46)

You're telling me you can win 55 percent of the time, long term, laying -118, just to break even, 56 percent of the time to show just a modest profit?

Can you tell me that with a straight face?

[Bostongambler]

It is an absolute and undisputed fact that many players like myself are profitable, we consistently beat the vig.

That's why books limits and kick players out - each and everyday.

And yet you posted something about bonuses not that long ago. Newsflash; If they are giving you bonuses you ain’t winning.

[Bostongambler]

Ba BaBeeGGee?
Afterall I've taught you, you're still not listening?
First of all, you seem [or do] have a loser's attitude? Get off that negative HS right now.
This: If you have no worthwhile [or any] winning resume in the past 2 or 3 years, why would anyone believe you can win at this treacherous basketball sport?

Watch and learn and try to decifpher your losing teams and see if you can determine the reason they didn't cover.
Sure, sometimes like Gonz and Duke, your team is simply overwhelmed. Or, maybe this reason; the team is worn down by this late time of the season?
Highly ranked and fighting to win every game, and add; many times only getting 48 hours of mental/physical rest.

Was Duke worn down yesterday? Were the Zags? We know for sure, in those two games, which 2 teams were revved up and ready for a superp effort against these 2 high ranked teams.

BBAabbeeeGGG, are you awake now and ready to give every once of your brain and body strenght to take on another day of one of the toughest sports, ever, to win money?
So show me now or keep of the; lazy bad work?

*This big 7' Williams, as I mentioned before, was hurt someway in the previous game.
And he only played 26 miniutes Sat., but had great numbers. 16 pnts and 13 rbs.

My hunch says is was not quite fit for that game?

Only thing I can learn from you is that if I get in your shape that I must stay on my meds. Wtf do you people come from.

[KVB]

Yeah but they were all tiny little books any respectable book is still around for 20 straight years at least 20

See Gold, this is where you dig yourself a hole in this conversation.

Some of the biggest books of the last 20 years pride themselves on taking action from professionals and consistent winners.

Yet they are still around and considered the top of the industry.

If the bookmaker is sharp enough, he will welcome action from anyone.

Fact.

[KVB]

If it were true that bettors and betting groups couldn't beat the vigorish, then there would be no need for risk managment.

And all the little risk management games that go with it.

The only "risk management" we would see is -115 on lesser liquid events.

I realize that until my posts this thread made no sense, of course I didn't read half of it because it looks like that moron entered and some of you fools actually engage with him.

Sorry BG, but you just asserted that all the risk management and sharp bookmaking in the world is pointless because of the vig.

We know this is not true.

That is all.

[Bostongambler]

[QUOTE=KVB;30798123]If it were true that bettors and betting groups couldn't beat the vigorish, then there would be no need for risk managment.

And all the little risk management games that go with it.

The only "risk management" we would see is -115 on lesser liquid events.

I realize that until my posts this thread made no sense, of course I didn't read half of it because it looks like that moron entered and some of you fools actually engage with him.

Sorry BG, but you just asserted that all the risk management and sharp bookmaking in the world is pointless because of the vig.

We know this is not true.

That is all.[/QUOTE



I did no such thing. Obviously if say a line is -3 -110 and and you get it at -1 -110 obviously it matters. You know what I meant .

[thomorino]

And yet you posted something about bonuses not that long ago. Newsflash; If they are giving you bonuses you ain’t winning.

Dumb post. With legalization the legal books are offering bonuses to everyone. You, yet again, show you know nothing about gambling or the gambling industry.

[thomorino]

If it were true that bettors and betting groups couldn't beat the vigorish, then there would be no need for risk managment.

And all the little risk management games that go with it.

The only "risk management" we would see is -115 on lesser liquid events.

I realize that until my posts this thread made no sense, of course I didn't read half of it because it looks like that moron entered and some of you fools actually engage with him.

Sorry BG, but you just asserted that all the risk management and sharp bookmaking in the world is pointless because of the vig.

We know this is not true.

That is all.

I see this mentally ill guy who can't beat any market is still obsessed with me.

[chico2663]

Only thing I can learn from you is that if I get in your shape that I must stay on my meds. Wtf do you people come from.

Usually from their mom’s ass!

[KVB]

[QUOTE=Bostongambler;30798138]

If it were true that bettors and betting groups couldn't beat the vigorish, then there would be no need for risk managment.

And all the little risk management games that go with it.

The only "risk management" we would see is -115 on lesser liquid events.

I realize that until my posts this thread made no sense, of course I didn't read half of it because it looks like that moron entered and some of you fools actually engage with him.

Sorry BG, but you just asserted that all the risk management and sharp bookmaking in the world is pointless because of the vig.

We know this is not true.

That is all.[/QUOTE



I did no such thing. Obviously if say a line is -3 -110 and and you get it at -1 -110 obviously it matters. You know what I meant .

I know, I was making a point, mostly for other readers.

[Covering the #]

The 3 best ways to beat the vig are:

A) Use alternate lines at + odds

B) 2 team parlays. Use a heavy favorite ml along with the normal -110

C) Use odds boosts when offered

Everyone should be using this method leaving yourself room to hit under 50% and still make a profit

[thomorino]

The 3 best ways to beat the vig are:

A) Use alternate lines at + odds

B) 2 team parlays. Use a heavy favorite ml along with the normal -110

C) Use odds boosts when offered

Everyone should be using this method leaving yourself room to hit under 50% and still make a profit

This is completely wrong. Alternative lines are almost always juiced to shit.

[Covering the #]

This is completely wrong. Alternative lines are almost always juiced to shit.

What I said was completely correct. You should know that you can move the line in either direction. For example, if I like a certain underdog, favorite or total at any random number, I'd move the line against me a couple of points and get + odds. How do you not know this?

[stevenash]

Alternative lines are advantageous when selling points.
For instance, you love say Miami over Orlando.
Miami is -5 standard vig -110
You think Miami wins by double digits.
Alt line might be Miami +500 -10.5

I'd stay away from buying point.
Selling points if you pick your spots, not a bad idea.

[TheLock]

I essentially agree with the OP

I’m up 6.85 units over 477 plays on Action Network (Expected_Utility is the username).

But, yeah, 477 plays is a relatively small
sample size (and a low ROI).

And, yes, most guys are BURIED lifetime.

[thomorino]

What I said was completely correct. You should know that you can move the line in either direction. For example, if I like a certain underdog, favorite or total at any random number, I'd move the line against me a couple of points and get + odds. How do you not know this?

Alternative lines almost never offer fair value. I don't understand how anyone who understands markets and gambling wouldn't know this.

[Covering the #]

Alternative lines almost never offer fair value. I don't understand how anyone who understands markets and gambling wouldn't know this.

Doesn't matter if you think the value is not good or not. Eliminating paying the tax on normal lines is a good strategy. When is the last time you had a play at + odds?

[RangeFinder]

See Gold, this is where you dig yourself a hole in this conversation.

Some of the biggest books of the last 20 years pride themselves on taking action from professionals and consistent winners.

Yet they are still around and considered the top of the industry.

If the bookmaker is sharp enough, he will welcome action from anyone.

Fact.

K, that is mic drop material there.