Can you be a winning gambler if you're able to consistently beat the closing lines?

[d2bets]

And if you don't think value matters, check your ticket if you bet the GSW/OKC spread tonight. No line shopper lost that game.

[WireWire]

My answer is yes but I also do not think anybody is that good. BW type people that were line manipulators could create value. They suckered line chasers into fattening up the point spread for them and then they middled it. But, I do not know how you could get in on the ground floor unless you were the originator.
If you believe in playing this method try somebody like Right Angle Sports. Biggest difficulty is getting the original number.

But, grade the closing line with one point in your favor on the steam side and see the difference in results.

Oh yes there are guys out there that are that good, I was following a guy's college basketball plays at the beginning of the year, I would see him put in the bets in at the same time every day and within 3-5 minutes every book was moving the line anywhere from 0.5-2.0 he was hitting at an insane rate!!!! Whoever he was was moving the numbers and i could see who he was on and actually set my alarm to get up to put them in before the numbers moved, i just had the auto refresher on for every 30 seconds lol he was on the right side of the closing line 95% of the time, He was betting between 3-5k a game. sadly, I haven't seen him in a few weeks.

[gauchojake]

Can you be a winning gambler if you DON'T consistently beat the closer?


Guys who are beating the closer consistently - are you using a model or eyeballing that shit???

[WireWire]

Can you be a winning gambler if you DON'T consistently beat the closer?


Guys who are beating the closer consistently - are you using a model or eyeballing that shit???

No, if you are not beating the closing line at least 80%+ of the time long term you're not winning, Models for the most part but I would also say there are guys (very few) who can beat the closing lines just based on following a certain sport day in and day out hard with no model, you have to immerse yourself in just that sport and you can get a flow going on what you think lines are to low or high for sure.

[floridagolfer]

I was looking to bet on Miami and Phoenix today
Line was -5.5 and -6.5...now both have been pushed up 1 point already. Will likely finish at 7 and 8 each

Perfect example why the answer is no. Miami turned out to be a 21-point margin at the end; Phoenix 3. Turned out those line movements didn't mean a thing. No one is good enough to know in advance whether a line moves in the right direction.

[Gaze73]

Hit around 60% of your plays and you will win long term. If you want to save money bet air for one or two years until you finally hit 60%. Then you can bet with cash.

As if it took just one or two years to learn how to hit 60%. 99% of people will never hit that much in their entire lives. Still, air betting is good advice, or $1 bets to keep it real and practice BRM. Many people lose tens of thousands each year and instead of lowering their stakes they will do the same thing next year.

[jjgold]

Work hard
Have lots of books
Get yourself a reliable line screen

Throw out handicapping

[juicername]

Perfect example why the answer is no. Miami turned out to be a 21-point margin at the end; Phoenix 3. Turned out those line movements didn't mean a thing. No one is good enough to know in advance whether a line moves in the right direction.

A whole two game sample that went 1-1? Perfect example!

[EGrecu]

Perfect example why the answer is no. Miami turned out to be a 21-point margin at the end; Phoenix 3. Turned out those line movements didn't mean a thing. No one is good enough to know in advance whether a line moves in the right direction.

but 1 in 20 games will end up with the suns winning by 7 or 8


which means that's the difference between winning at 50% vs 55%

[d2bets]

but 1 in 20 games will end up with the suns winning by 7 or 8


which means that's the difference between winning at 50% vs 55%

Exactly. Most people literally cannot get their head around this.

And Suns by 7 or 8 is way more than 5% likely.

[EGrecu]

Exactly. Most people literally cannot get their head around this.

And Suns by 7 or 8 is way more than 5% likely.

the celtics line was -5 in the morning...it is now up to 7...another great example

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Keep thinking you can beat NBA long term by beating the closing lines. Modern NBA is a garbage product

[juicername]

Real data for NBA this season.

ATS opener beating the closing line by

1p or more 54.5%
2p or more 58.5%
3p or more 65.8%

So yes, if you accurately can predict how the line will move you will win.

[thomorino]

Real data for NBA this season.

ATS opener beating the closing line by

1p or more 54.5%
2p or more 58.5%
3p or more 65.8%

So yes, if you accurately can predict how the line will move you will win.

Dumb post. This season many players have been out with covid, so many times beating the line means people are betting games before people are declared out. Beating an NBA line by 1 point is not going to produce anywhere near a 55% win percentage long-term.

[JIBBBY]

If you have gambling discipline and can grind over time yes. Treat it like a business and don't get the gambling highs and lows.

[juicername]

Dumb post. This season many players have been out with covid, so many times beating the line means people are betting games before people are declared out. Beating an NBA line by 1 point is not going to produce anywhere near a 55% win percentage long-term.

Your NBA record speaks for itself.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Real data for NBA this season.

ATS opener beating the closing line by

1p or more 54.5%
2p or more 58.5%
3p or more 65.8%

So yes, if you accurately can predict how the line will move you will win.

Stop with this data mining garbage

No one bets or beats the closing line every game

It's like saying just take the ML and pick winners, you'll win 100% of the time

[thomorino]

Your NBA record speaks for itself.

My records are strong across the board, you are afraid to post and track for a day because you are a fraud.

[pabonaparte]

Your NBA record speaks for itself.

Know your customer, lol

[d2bets]

Keep thinking you can beat NBA long term by beating the closing lines. Modern NBA is a garbage product

If you can't beat the NBA beating the closer then you can beat the NBA betting market late against the move. It's one or the other. Celtics go from -5 to -8. If -5 isn't +EV then +8 must be. If you can't understand this then you shouldn't be betting. It's irrelevant whether the product is garbage. Who cares.

[d2bets]

Dumb post. This season many players have been out with covid, so many times beating the line means people are betting games before people are declared out. Beating an NBA line by 1 point is not going to produce anywhere near a 55% win percentage long-term.

You couldn't be more clueless if you tried. And I think you have tried.

[thomorino]

You couldn't be more clueless if you tried. And I think you have tried.

Dumb post. I guarantee that beating an NBA line by a single point long-term will not produce a 55% winning percentage. Single point moves in the NBA are not usually significant, the exception at times this year is the players out with covid that the line moves signal.

You are a clueless person.

[EGrecu]

If you can't beat the NBA beating the closer then you can beat the NBA betting market late against the move. It's one or the other. Celtics go from -5 to -8. If -5 isn't +EV then +8 must be. If you can't understand this then you shouldn't be betting. It's irrelevant whether the product is garbage. Who cares.

Yep

[juicername]

Dumb post. I guarantee that beating an NBA line by a single point long-term will not produce a 55% winning percentage. Single point moves in the NBA are not usually significant, the exception at times this year is the players out with covid that the line moves signal.

You are a clueless person.

I guarantee you are better off spending time trying to predict live moments than how wind will affect a baseball game played in a dome, like you did before shutting down your MLB "betting" for good.

[thomorino]

There are 2 basic ways to make good money gambling. By having a big bankroll and betting small on a lot of games, being a high volume bettor. Or picking your spots as someone with an average or small bankroll and betting big.

This strategy of being a high volume bettor and betting small amounts of money on games where you have 1 or 2 point edge is only going to produce long-term profitability for people who have big bankroll.

Getting the best of an NBA line by just a single point will at best produce profitability rates of 4-5% long-term, which is meaningless unless you have a very significant amount of capital.

For most people to make any real money gambling they are going to have to pick spots and vary their bet size, obviously betting bigger when their perceived edge is bigger.

[thomorino]

I guarantee you are better off spending time trying to predict live moments than how wind will affect a baseball game played in a dome, like you did before shutting down your MLB "betting" for good.

I have never talked about wind in a dome, you lie about everything. You don't have a clue about betting - your contest records speak for themself, they are all trash.

[d2bets]

There are 2 basic ways to make good money gambling. By having a big bankroll and betting small on a lot of games, being a high volume bettor. Or picking your spots as someone with an average or small bankroll and betting big.

This strategy of being a high volume bettor and betting small amounts of money on games where you have 1 or 2 point edge is only going to produce long-term profitability for people who have big bankroll.

Getting the best of an NBA line by just a single point will at best produce profitability rates of 4-5% long-term, which is meaningless unless you have a very significant amount of capital.

For most people to make any real money gambling they are going to have to pick spots and vary their bet size, obviously betting bigger when their perceived edge is bigger.

I was wrong. You could be more clueless with some effort.

4-5% profitability is not meaningless. It's everything. Of course betting more is better.

"Picking your spots" is not going to get you to better than 4-5% profitability. It's just stupid.

Take that 4-5% profitability and hammer it as hard and as often as you can.

[EGrecu]

There are 2 basic ways to make good money gambling. By having a big bankroll and betting small on a lot of games, being a high volume bettor. Or picking your spots as someone with an average or small bankroll and betting big.

This strategy of being a high volume bettor and betting small amounts of money on games where you have 1 or 2 point edge is only going to produce long-term profitability for people who have big bankroll.

Getting the best of an NBA line by just a single point will at best produce profitability rates of 4-5% long-term, which is meaningless unless you have a very significant amount of capital.

For most people to make any real money gambling they are going to have to pick spots and vary their bet size, obviously betting bigger when their perceived edge is bigger.

4-5% profitability with a 100K bankroll will make a ton of money

[thomorino]

I was wrong. You could be more clueless with some effort.

4-5% profitability is not meaningless. It's everything. Of course betting more is better.

"Picking your spots" is not going to get you to better than 4-5% profitability. It's just stupid.

Take that 4-5% profitability and hammer it as hard and as often as you can.

You are clueless.

I didn't say 4-5 percent is meaningless, I said for most bettors with average or small bankrolls that's not enough.Pickijg your spots and betting bigger when you have a bigger edge is how most people with average or small bankrolls can make significant money.

You are clueless and you don't understand that to make any significant amount of money gambling long term, you can just have edges, you have to know how big your edge is.

[thomorino]

4-5% profitability with a 100K bankroll will make a ton of money

It will make money, not a ton, but it will produce a return better than most people would get in equit a or other tradition nao assets.

Most people don't have that bankroll though.

[Waterstpub87]

Starting with 1,000. Betting 1% a play. At a 4% return, you would have ~ $1492 after 1,000 plays. Easy to get 1,000 plays across major American sports, I managed more than that in baseball alone.

At 2,000, you will be at $2,225.

At 10,000 plays, this will grow to ~$54,555. If you are betting everything, this may take you a couple of years.

The 4% adds up quickly. It continues to add exponentially.

Small bankrolls when played well become big bankrolls. Small bankrolls when played stupidly become zero, and you need to replenish. The mentality of needing to run a small bankroll into a large one with huge bets is an unprofitable and toxic idea.

[thomorino]

Starting with 1,000. Betting 1% a play. At a 4% return, you would have ~ $1492 after 1,000 plays. Easy to get 1,000 plays across major American sports, I managed more than that in baseball alone.

At 2,000, you will be at $2,225.

At 10,000 plays, this will grow to ~$54,555. If you are betting everything, this may take you a couple of years.

The 4% adds up quickly. It continues to add exponentially.

Small bankrolls when played well become big bankrolls. Small bankrolls when played stupidly become zero, and you need to replenish. The mentality of needing to run a small bankroll into a large one with huge bets is an unprofitable and toxic idea.

I'm not saying anyone should bet huge, what I'm saying is that the only realistic way to grow a small bankroll into a larger is by betting around 5 units per play when you think your edge is biggest.

The problem with your post is that there are not 10,000 plays a year where a player can expect to beat the market. The strategy talked about in this thread works rarely in the unique situation where you can beat an NBA line by a full point, that happens about once or twice a week, and you aren't going to do anywhere near 10,000 plays using this specific strategy.

You can bet bigger when your edge is bigger without betting huge and being reckless. To be a successful bettor you have not just know if you have an edge, you have to have an idea of how big your edge is.

[dante1]

I'm not saying anyone should be huge, what I'm saying is that the only realistic way to grow a small bankroll into a larger is by betting around 5 units per play when you think your edge is biggest.

The problem with your post is that there are not 10,000 plays a year where a player can expect to beat the market. The strategy talked about in this thread works rarely in the unique situation where you can beat an NBA line by a full point, that happens about once or twice a week, and you aren't going to do anywhere near 10,000 plays using this specific strategy.

You can bet bigger when your edge is bigger without betting huge and being reckless. To be a successful bettor you have not just know if you have an edge, you have to have an idea of how big your edge is.

nice post. are you a successful player.

[dante1]

Starting with 1,000. Betting 1% a play. At a 4% return, you would have ~ $1492 after 1,000 plays. Easy to get 1,000 plays across major American sports, I managed more than that in baseball alone.

At 2,000, you will be at $2,225.

At 10,000 plays, this will grow to ~$54,555. If you are betting everything, this may take you a couple of years.

The 4% adds up quickly. It continues to add exponentially.

Small bankrolls when played well become big bankrolls. Small bankrolls when played stupidly become zero, and you need to replenish. The mentality of needing to run a small bankroll into a large one with huge bets is an unprofitable and toxic idea.

wonder how many players even understand this.

[thomorino]

nice post. are you a successful player.

I am, my point here is that to have real success long-term you can't just understand sports and beat the market, you have to be able to accurately know what your edge is and vary your bet size accordinly.