1. #1
    Day Game 216
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    The Kansas City Chiefs

    In their last 16 games they are 3-13 vs the spread

    Good time to start betting them?

    They are due for a regression back to the mean right?

    Would not surprise me to see them start covering now

    People are overreacting to the Bills game but without those 2 turnovers it would’ve been a different game

  2. #2
    KVB
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    I hear what you're getting at there but there can be more to it, as you probably know.

    While 3-13 is pretty bad going back to last year it's a bit of a moving yardstick to use by itself so long term.

    This is something I might use video to get more into but looking at this season, let's just take the ATS record a little bit further work out whether or not the books have been under or overestimating them in price. We can also look at the rest of league, and we can question whether it's a pricing issue or performance issue.

    Right now I have the Chiefs at an average ATS margin of -7.1 points. That means, by average, they have lost to he posted spread by a TD.

    There are still within 1 standard deviation of the league there, despite losing to the spread by more than 20 points against Buffalo. But the reality is, the books are not to far off by the end, especially with the Chiefs, over the years.

    You can enhance this thinking to create teasers, I might get into this later.

    Also, due for a regression back to what mean, who's mean?

    50-50?

    Have you seen the history?

    Over the last 18 years, not counting a few pushes, they are at 52.8% ATS.

    But from the 16-17 season through the 19-20 season they were 62.3% ATS.

    This year and last they are 8-13 against the spread,. 7-9 last year, 1-4 this year so far.

    Perhaps they are regressing right now, with more ATS losses.

    When it comes a deeper look at the average ATS margin, and looking at opponents, that average tightens even more within 1 standard deviation. The WFT is basically in the same boat as KC, and a cover by other would help to tighten the avg ATS margin.

    But so would not covering by a couple of points.

    Realistically, over the next 12 games, KC could nearly split those as far as covering, 50-50, and it wouldn't be asking much mathematically. So just assuming that 3-13 will lead to more spread covers could still lose to vig.

    Now I agree with you. They are at a low and they just got beat, as 2.5 point favorites, by 18 points on a Sunday night.

    It does smell rebound situation in the market. The issue, is that the smell of rebound can be factored in and KC is again a public play.

    So we have the Chiefs at a low and they were just selling at a low last week. This week, they look to be overpirced again. We see the 7 line out there, and the public likes it too.

    But I can forecast a much closer game, with many forecasts. I would not be surprised to see the 7 move to 6.5 this week, despite the thirsty public looking for a whooping over a shitty Football Team.

    Another reason for the 7? Back to that teaser.

    Both Washington and KC could be the beneficiary of a teaser. They are enticing action there.

    So yeah, KC is do for a whammy of a game, and Mahomes and Auto probably won't be held down for long.

    One point I'm making in this long post is that using 3-13 might not be enough, but adding the overeaction the Bills is a good start. I'm saying that overreaction is there already, in the line.

    KC is 1-4 against the spread, sure, but WFT is also 1-4 against the spread.

    When I put it all together, I'm looking at two teaser plays, KC -.5 and Washington +13.5.

    I think this is a great week to tease KC, Wash too, but the topic here is KC.

    I addressed a lot of things in here, all of which could be expanded upon, from opponents being factored in to a more in depth analysis of the current game's line and teams, and even concepts of teaser protection.

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  3. #3
    TheMetsSuck
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    Swiss cheese defense

  4. #4
    lakerboy
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    One lucky quarter vs SF is all that separates them from doing nothing.

  5. #5
    BigOrange
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    175 pts

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  6. #6
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...We see the 7 line out there, and the public likes it too.

    But I can forecast a much closer game, with many forecasts. I would not be surprised to see the 7 move to 6.5 this week, despite the thirsty public looking for a whooping over a shitty Football Team...
    Seeing 6.5 pretty much across the board.

    Pressure was real, BOL wanted to protect from the pressure, you can tell, but they eventually followed the market.

    And now they're right back to 6.5.

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  7. #7
    KVB
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    Books did a good job here catering to a public early and then drawing in the money on the mid week steam.

    Pinny charged for the players this time, taking that extra vig as it steamed.

    As we get closer, expect the public to be looking at an attractive price and they will come back in again and the KC ML is offered below that psychological level of -300, or better yet, -325 and higher.

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  8. #8
    KVB
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    I going two open 3 pick 6 point teaser parlays.

    One with KC -.5 and one with Wash +12.5

    Honestly fukked up there, don't like that at all, but I'll do it for this thread. Not gonna lie, I didn't take the 13.5 earlier, like I posted and should have.

    It's ok, when I don't have make the next parlay play now.

    Once it's confirmed, it's game on.

    Let's build some equity.


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  9. #9
    pavyracer
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    Reid's son is a gambler and he bets against the Chiefs. So Andy as a good father makes sure the Chiefs don't cover ATS.

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  10. #10
    jjgold
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    Mahomes forcing the ball too much
    No defense
    Players hurt

    They will not win 8 games

  11. #11
    Marigold HD
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    I agree with JJ for once

  12. #12
    SBR_Guest_Pro
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    They were due 4 games ago.. so that logic to bet now won't work

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  13. #13
    GT21Megatron
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    Gonna smash the skins
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  14. #14
    jjgold
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    They are just the name never bet names

  15. #15
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    They are just the name never bet names
    Where does that leave Washington?









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  16. #16
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    One lucky quarter vs SF is all that separates them from doing nothing.
    Jimmy didn't have to do s h i t in the Niners 2 NFC playoff games and that's why he crumbled in the 4th quarter.

    while KC completed a huge comeback vs Houston's ineptitude with a lead and then a 10+ comeback vs the red hot wild card Titans with the monster Henry who apparently couldn't be stopped

    y do you hate KC... because the bears front office blew it in 2017?

  17. #17
    JIBBBY
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    Chiefs kinda blow this year. Time to fade. Don't bet against trends like records ATS.

  18. #18
    Day Game 216
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Mahomes forcing the ball too much
    No defense
    Players hurt

    They will not win 8 games
    You are correct with all of those statements.

    It will be interesting to see what adjustments they make.

    Josh Gordon is going to get more targets as he learns the playbook

    a few of the players in the secondary will be benched, and I expect them to make a trade or two.

    Marlon Mack may be brought in, Trey Flowers is a free agent, I think there is a corner from the Vikings they may trade for as well.

    I mean did Patrick Mahomes really forget how to play football?

    Maybe it’s taking the new offensive line some time to get comfortable playing together in this system

    who knows… but the Patriots did have that season where they lost 2 games early and then never lost again

    I know the Chiefs have 3 losses but the schedule is pretty easy from here on out except for Packers and Chargers.

    Broncos and Raiders will come back down to earth.

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