CFL 2021 Discussion & wagering strategies

**pablo222** · 08-02-21, 01:25 PM

What is this all aboot? I have never bet it.

**jjgold** · 08-02-21, 01:39 PM

I can tell you one thing J Vegas is a Canadian football league expert

**KiDBaZkiT** · 08-02-21, 03:45 PM

Tailing. Don’t fukk me pal.

**Brock Landers** · 08-02-21, 03:51 PM

CFL is tremendous, until college and NFL starts

**jjgold** · 08-02-21, 04:00 PM

Jay do not fuk us

**Tuesday** · 08-02-21, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

It all kicks off August 5th with the Grey Cup rematch we’ve all been waiting for ....
Bombers vs. Ti-Cats
I havent seen a line anywhere but, I'd put Hamilton at -4
Total 48.5

Good Luck this season, eh!

**Art Vandelay** · 08-03-21, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

CFL is tremendous, until college and NFL starts

Agree, but still follow it through the Cup. Sucks that Canada couldn't get their Covid act together or we'd already have a month and a half of the season already under our belts...

**KVB** · 08-05-21, 10:46 AM

Almost came in here suggesting Winnipeg only because I thought the line would go from 3.5 to 3.

And it did.

Solid thread Jay, I plan to contribute. I'll get tonights numbers down and we'll start the process. Hopefully we can make this a season long venture.

**Brock Landers** · 08-05-21, 11:03 AM

ESPN Networks and ESPN+ Welcome Back the Canadian Football League with a Complete 68-Game Schedule

https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-releases/2021/08/espn-networks-and-espn-welcome-back-the-canadian-football-league-with-a-complete-68-game-schedule/

All Games in 2021 Will Be Available in the United States on ESPN2, ESPNEWS or ESPN+ Season-Opener Features Hamilton vs. Winnipeg in 2019 Grey Cup Rematch

**Brock Landers** · 08-05-21, 11:04 AM

**KVB** · 08-05-21, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Almost came in here suggesting Winnipeg only because I thought the line would go from 3.5 to 3.

And it did.

Solid thread Jay, I plan to contribute. I'll get tonights numbers down and we'll start the process. Hopefully we can make this a season long venture.

Line dropping to 2.5, getting time to take the favorite and shoot for the middle in the first game of the season.

I don't see any preseason this year. Was there one?

**Brock Landers** · 08-05-21, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Line dropping to 2.5, getting time to take the favorite and shoot for the middle in the first game of the season.

I don't see any preseason this year. Was there one?

No preseason in CFL this year

**Jayvegas420** · 08-05-21, 12:08 PM

Yep season starts in less than 6 hours

**Jayvegas420** · 08-05-21, 12:10 PM

Ti cats -2.5 is a no-brainer for me & 49 total is is a stay away.

**Jayvegas420** · 08-05-21, 12:20 PM

I'm pulling out the BIG GUNS for this one e fellas

**KVB** · 08-05-21, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

Ti cats -2.5 is a no-brainer for me & 49 total is is a stay away.

Yeah, my point was Winnipeg was under a lot of pressure. I think I might shoot for the middle here.

But since I din't exactly post the first play, not sure I'm really going to track it for the season. It's not that kind of play anyway.

Here's what I have for the early season forecasts. Remember, these are early season.

The Stacking percentage forecast has Hamilton winning with 27 or 28 points to Winnipeg's 24 or 25 points. Honestly, the probablities are not equal like the usually are when I post multiple scores, but close enough to equal. I could have posed 27-24, leaving the auxillary scores out.

The non predictive public gauge, which is also early season obviously, has Winnipeg winning 26-23.

Obviously not a whole lot of analysis here but I will lay out the other forecasts for the rest of the weekend and we will see if we can follow the money. Remember, I always say, with just about any sport, we need 4 games under out belts from each team to begin some real forecasting, including the sharp forecast.

I have no early season sharp forecast this year because we had no CFL last year. Let's see what happens.

**KVB** · 08-05-21, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

Ti cats -2.5 is a no-brainer for me & 49 total is is a stay away.

My forecasts, made before the lines came out, are basically right on the market.

I can see that Total rising a bit but that WPG pressure has kept that market down.

From what I'm told, volume isn't very high yet. Unfortunately, because of that for much of the season, there is no Contrarian Fund market tracking for the CFL.

That said, WPG not getting much love in the market, keeping that line on the lower end of the forecasts' ranges.

**KVB** · 08-05-21, 03:08 PM

Line hitting 2.

WPG continues to get the pressure and the books continue to show it.

**Jayvegas420** · 08-05-21, 06:57 PM

yup...pulled the trigger too early

**Jayvegas420** · 08-06-21, 09:42 AM

Didn't matter.

....onto Lions +7.5 (-110) - Riders 47.5 (-110)

**jjgold** · 08-06-21, 12:52 PM

Jay????????????????????

**Jayvegas420** · 08-06-21, 12:54 PM

Minor setback coach.
Studying tonight's game
Check in later

**KVB** · 08-06-21, 01:28 PM

Week 1 Jay, we have little fram of reference.

But I will say this, this could be one of those years. Early on, it might be best to just bet the dogs on the spread, blindly.

I think this could be a onesided market for at least 4 weeks. Let's see what tonight brings.

**KVB** · 08-06-21, 02:08 PM

Remember it's only game two, early season, and with WNBA I used tables instead of paragraphs, lol. We'll get to that I suppose. Even with early season though, the forecasts can be telling. Let's see if they tell us something.

The stacking percentages forecast has this game a tie at 24 points each. There's a slight edge to the moneyline on Saskatch, but it's ever so slight. The non predictive public gauge has Saskatch winning 25-20.

Clearly the line has moved away from the forecast but it's early and doesn't say much.

We keep watching the flow of money here. The pressure was on WPG yesterday, and they came through. Today I don't have as much info yet but from what I've been told the pressure is on the road team, despite the line movement.

Could the books be trying to generate steam, which paid out yesterday? Could we be looking at the dog again?

**Jayvegas420** · 08-07-21, 10:19 AM

TORONTO & CALGARYS last 6 meetings have stayed under.
Total tonight is 48.5 (-110)
Leaning over.

**Mike Huntertz** · 08-07-21, 10:42 AM

Calgary is expecting some wind 10-15MPH and Edmonton has a 25% chance of some rain.
Not too bad a forecast for Alberta.

**KVB** · 08-07-21, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Week 1 Jay, we have little fram of reference.

But I will say this, this could be one of those years. Early on, it might be best to just bet the dogs on the spread, blindly.

I think this could be a onesided market for at least 4 weeks. Let's see what tonight brings...

We could be seeing a little dog run, even if one of today's ends up the favorite.

We have a staggered set of games today, very enticing. We could look for the first game to be misleading, don't be surprised at OT.

But it's week one, let's not gamble too hard here. I just want to put down the forecasts because really don't have much info to go on. We have two results, an UPSET and UNDER, and a DOG and OVER. The stacking forecasts are split with the results ATS as well. So are info isn't great as far as chips stacking against or for bettors, market structure, and what it is will try to offer this thread.

What do know is that there have been two dogs in two games.

Again, it's early season and we need each team to have 4 games under their belts before I'd like to hold the stacking forecast truly accountable in this thread.

Today's Forecasts:

		Stacking		Public
		Percentages		Guage

7-Aug	TOR	20		20
	CAL	30		27

	OTT	17	18	20
	EDM	30	31	27

So much split here and with the idnetical public gauges and lining up spreads in the market the CFL hasn't missed a beat since I was posting about it back in 2015.

Quite frankly, the Stacking forecasts are also pretty similar. I wish I had more for you that wouldn't put us into too much of a gamble, not to mention jeapardize the real message and story that is, once again, best taught by example.

In know that's a lot of words with little meaning now, but I know some of you know it takes a couple weeks for us to make something special happen.

For this weekend, what balances and settles? Two favorites to balance the dogs ATS? What about for the day? One favorite and one dog for it's own balance? We ahve nearly identical spread being offered. The market, and some participants, are playing this very game with market moving money.

For today I still like the idea of a broader wave of dogs for the first few weeks of the season. So if betting I would lean the dogs. But like I did in moron's WNBA thread, I want to add the live lean.

LIVE LEAN: If Toronto takes the early lead, giving that dog lean favor, and making the stacking forecast appear wrong, I will be looking to pick up Calgary LIVE.

It really could be stretched out, to the point of OT or that we don't know the answer until game two starts. Could be a highly unlikely comeback. There will be a splitting of the market tug on the OTT/EDM game with this kind of action and the market will have generated volume for the Sat night CFL game, even if it's only for an exclusive betting audience.

In the CFL, a league where no lead is safe, it's not what the bring, it's how they bring it.

**KVB** · 08-07-21, 02:11 PM

When it comes what's goin on in the market, ear to the ground, again volume is shit. Can't produce a decent Contrarain Fund with that kind of volume. Instead, we profile the bettors, understand how they think, then join with the books when the take that inevitable position.

From what I can tell, the public likes the usual OVERs and with both dogs covering already this week, there is alrady pressure on both favorites. We've seen line movement that reflects it as well, but I'm not convinced it's enough. I think perhaps the books are going to be in a position to benefit from both dogs convering today.

Consistent with my lean, but that doesn't mean it''s guaranteed. Especially week 1, with no preaseason work with and essentially no "last season" to work with.

Good Luck today. I will be on the road a bit, but wil try to give any market updates I can, if I come across any.

**KVB** · 08-07-21, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

TORONTO & CALGARYS last 6 meetings have stayed under.
Total tonight is 48.5 (-110)
Leaning over.

I agree. With my LIVE Lean and predicted scenario haveing Tor with the lead and a Cal comeback, even OT necessary, it lends to the OVER.

Can't fault a bettor for thinking OVER in this first game.

**KVB** · 08-07-21, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...Today's Forecasts:

		Stacking		Public
		Percentages		Guage

7-Aug	TOR	20		20
	CAL	30		27

	OTT	17	18	20
	EDM	30	31	27

I want to clarify that this chart reads like I write it.

For game two, the prediction is Edmonton winning with 30 or 31 points to Ottawa's 17 or 18 points. That's a 12, 13 or 14 point win and a 47, 48, or 49 point game. For the purposes of these posts, that puts the scores all at roughly equal probablility.

We're dealing with adjusted scores here the game of football. While certain key numbers and what not in CFL are not nearly as signficant as in the NFL, there are some things we must pay attention to. We should be getting into that in this thread as well.

**Tuesday** · 08-07-21, 04:32 PM

Taking CGY -7 thinking they'll cover easily tonight

**jjgold** · 08-07-21, 05:23 PM

Good stuff men

The info is solid win or lose

**Jayvegas420** · 08-07-21, 05:48 PM

BET

Aug 07

NFL [675] TOTAL o48½-108 (TORONTO ARGONAUTS vrs CALGARY STAMPEDERS)

1200.00 SBR / 1111.11 SBR

4802918

**jrgum3** · 08-07-21, 05:55 PM

I went with the Elks -6.5 today. Little bit leery of laying points this early in the season but the Redblacks should be one of the worst teams and the Elks ought to be able to cover this spread.