Atl Hawks have not lost at home since April 15

**d2bets** · 06-11-21, 03:58 PM

13 in a row and now it's a packed house. I'm struggling to understand how they are the underdog. And watching the firs couple games they are not afraid of Philly. Looks like a series of runs and Atlanta should be able to have more of those at home. Philly used the home crowd last game. Just trying to understand why so many respected folks like Philly. This line has me confounded a bit. I would have guessed Atlanta -2.5/3.

**KVB** · 06-11-21, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by actiondan

Does the trend continue? Does it matter?

It matters as it will weigh on the market, on both sides of the coin.

It matters in whether or not the market chooses to exploit the known trend. And it might be.

**KVB** · 06-11-21, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

13 in a row and now it's a packed house. I'm struggling to understand how they are the underdog. And watching the firs couple games they are not afraid of Philly. Looks like a series of runs and Atlanta should be able to have more of those at home. Philly used the home crowd last game. Just trying to understand why so many respected folks like Philly. This line has me confounded a bit. I would have guessed Atlanta -2.5/3.

This might help you get a bit of the picture...

Originally posted by KVB

I make a wide range of forecasts and the sharpest playoff forecast I have shows Philly beating Atlanta buy more than 4 points. As I tier down the forecasts Philly continues to have a few point to moneyline edge.

The non-predictive public gauge, which I create to gauge the sentiment of the general betting population, based on ratings, formulas, and an assessment of the news cycle, both local and broad (yeah, what we do in my office is pretty fukkin' sick) also has Philly winning 113-111.

Everyone has Philly nailed down, but it's the public gauge along with unsophisticated ratings and strategies that gives Atlanta more credit, this is evident across the spectrum. Think about that if you are assessing the game based on simple factors or even just feel alone.

When it comes to the market the books know the line is priced low and quite frankly are happy at this point to take in the bets on Philly here. That said, my scan across the market, something I talked about in the Morino WNBA thread, and other info tells us that another group in the New Jersey area or at least getting down there likes Atlanta and represents market moving money to those books in spite of the public pressure on Philly.

It's early and this situation is fluid but this gives yet another glimpse into how my office handicaps.

I have no bet at this time but if the volume continues to come in on the side it has and the books continure to hold the line, we will have Atlanta +1.5 on the contrarian Fund radar...

**d2bets** · 06-11-21, 04:04 PM

KVB give me the go ahead. I really want to hammer Atlanta. I have ML +112 available.

**lakerboy** · 06-11-21, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

13 in a row and now it's a packed house. I'm struggling to understand how they are the underdog. And watching the firs couple games they are not afraid of Philly. Looks like a series of runs and Atlanta should be able to have more of those at home. Philly used the home crowd last game. Just trying to understand why so many respected folks like Philly. This line has me confounded a bit. I would have guessed Atlanta -2.5/3.

Sixers number one seed. The line looks right to me. It will probably be close and the sixers will squeeze it out.

**KVB** · 06-11-21, 04:07 PM

So far just reporting what I have, no bet here but my discipline is high and I've passed on many winners.

**jjgold** · 06-11-21, 04:08 PM

Sixers

**d2bets** · 06-11-21, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Sixers number one seed. The line looks right to me. It will probably be close and the sixers will squeeze it out.

I don't give a crap about seeding. Meaningless. Atlanta was terrible first part of the season. Not sure, but if you take out the first part of the season before they changed coaches, their record was probably close to Philly's. And if you go by home records, not even close.

The seeding thing is exactly why Atlanta has massive value here IMO.

**lakerboy** · 06-11-21, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

I don't give a crap about seeding. Meaningless. Atlanta was terrible first part of the season. Not sure, but if you take out the first part of the season before they changed coaches, their record was probably close to Philly's. And if you go by home records, not even close.

The seeding thing is exactly why Atlanta has massive value here IMO.

Lmao. You asked why the line is what it is. I told you the seeding was part of that but you didn't like that answer.

Okay so if you go by since Macmillan took over and records are relatively the same then the line is okay. It's-1.5/1. That's not some massive favorite.

Philly opened-5 in the first game at betonline before the whole embiid thing. If you take that into consideration then-1/1.5 is the correct line. Take the hawks. I would love to see them win.

**d2bets** · 06-11-21, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Lmao. You asked why the line is what it is. I told you the seeding was part of that but you didn't like that answer.

Okay so if you go by since Macmillan took over and records are relatively the same then the line is okay. It's-1.5/1. That's not some massive favorite.

Philly opened-5 in the first game at betonline before the whole embiid thing. If you take that into consideration then-1/1.5 is the correct line. Take the hawks. I would love to see them win.

Only 3.5 point total difference between going home to road? That's way low. Home court is huge, especially now.

-3/3.5 home should result in -3/3.5 the other way on the road. 6.5 to 7 point swing. So if -5 was correct then it should at Atl -1.5/2. There is a significant difference between +1.5/2 and -1.5/2. If I can take +110 instead of laying -130, that's huge.

**KVB** · 06-11-21, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by d2bets;30333786[QUOTE=d2bets

Only 3.5 point total difference between going home to road? That's way low. Home court is huge, especially now...

I think we now know where you stand and why you are struggling here...

Originally posted by KVB

...but it's the public gauge along with unsophisticated ratings and strategies that gives Atlanta more credit, this is evident across the spectrum. Think about that if you are assessing the game based on simple factors or even just feel alone...

**d2bets** · 06-11-21, 04:41 PM

[QUOTE=KVB;30333789][QUOTE=d2bets;30333786

I think we now know where you stand and why you are struggling here...

[/QUOTE]
I'm "struggling" according to what or whom?

**LT Profits** · 06-11-21, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

13 in a row and now it's a packed house. I'm struggling to understand how they are the underdog. And watching the firs couple games they are not afraid of Philly. Looks like a series of runs and Atlanta should be able to have more of those at home. Philly used the home crowd last game. Just trying to understand why so many respected folks like Philly. This line has me confounded a bit. I would have guessed Atlanta -2.5/3.

Seems obvious to me, this happens almost all the time when the series favorite loses one of the first two games at home. If the 76ers were up 2-0, this line would be around Atlanta -3.

**KVB** · 06-11-21, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

I'm "struggling" according to what or whom?

You are struggling according to you and only you.

Literally your exact words...

Originally posted by d2bets

...I'm struggling to understand how they are the underdog...

**jtoler** · 06-11-21, 05:03 PM

philly is hungry to get back the game atl stole from them at home, but that might have to wait till game 4

**carolinakid** · 06-11-21, 05:06 PM

a very tough game side and total imo with the numbers we have to work with as of now...

**d2bets** · 06-11-21, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by KVB

You are struggling according to you and only you.

Literally your exact words...

It's a turn of phrase. Stop being so literal.

**USCPHILLYGUY** · 06-11-21, 05:23 PM

Agree with LB here. Series will go 7

**LT Profits** · 06-11-21, 05:27 PM

I think Game 4 line would vary by around 5.5 points depending on who wins tonight, which sounds wild bit it is what it is. If 76ers win tonight to "normalize" series based on home court, Atlanta -3. If Hawks win tonight putting 76ers in MUST win mode down 2-1 on road, Philly -2.5

**KVB** · 06-11-21, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

It's a turn of phrase. Stop being so literal.

We are all watching you struggle too, that's why I wrote the original post. You were struggling with not understanding the line in that thread it came from.

lol

Carry on then.

**jjgold** · 06-11-21, 05:32 PM

every game has the same exact chance to win nba

**rm18** · 06-11-21, 05:32 PM

Atlanta is not going to be -3 after losing

. I think they will win though

**JayLA** · 06-11-21, 05:45 PM

good thread so far

**asiagambler** · 06-11-21, 05:46 PM

Wow Atlanta -3 doesn't look right at all as long as Embiid continues to play

**LT Profits** · 06-11-21, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by rm18

Atlanta is not going to be -3 after losing

. I think they will win though

Atlanta would have been -3 tonight if 76ers were up 2-0.

And unless a series is 3-0, the line almost always skews toward the team that lost the previous game, the desperation factor is huge in setting playoff lines.

**LT Profits** · 06-11-21, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by asiagambler

Wow Atlanta -3 doesn't look right at all as long as Embiid continues to play

Hawks get full HCA with 100% capacity.

**lakerboy** · 06-11-21, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Atlanta would have been -3 tonight if 76ers were up 2-0.

And unless a series is 3-0, the line almost always skews toward the team that lost the previous game, the desperation factor is huge in setting playoff lines.

I'm assuming you noticed Denver first hf today

**rm18** · 06-11-21, 05:56 PM

I don't think 2-0 and 2-1 are the same.

**LT Profits** · 06-11-21, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by rm18

I don't think 2-0 and 2-1 are the same.

Ok, Atlanta -2/2.5

**carolinakid** · 06-11-21, 05:57 PM

philly for the 1st half shaping up imo

**KVB** · 06-11-21, 05:59 PM

Atlanta getting some money late, but clearly the books are happy with a small position here on Atlanta.

These groups in New Jersey just fighting over that line at this point.

**LT Profits** · 06-11-21, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I'm assuming you noticed Denver first hf today

That happens all the time too these days, ever since it leaked out couple of years ago that Game 3 home teams down 0-2 in series were like 70% ATS in first half. Ever since that came out, books have skewed 1H lines in those spots and they are closer to 50% since.

**carolinakid** · 06-11-21, 06:02 PM

the line is very weak for atl for the 1st half imo, philly for the 1st half just might work

**carolinakid** · 06-11-21, 06:07 PM

06/11/21 04:03:53pm Pacific
NBA: Game 531-532			Injury	Status	Games	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK
Philadelphia 76ers	PF	Joel Embiid	Knee	Probable	51	28.5	10.6	2.8	1.0	1.4
is upgraded to probable Friday vs Atlanta