How good is Italy at soccer?

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  • Justin3587
    SBR MVP
    • 08-29-12
    • 2566

    #1
    How good is Italy at soccer?
    They’re playing turkey today. I don’t usually dabble with soccer but I have an odds boost that gives me a little bump on the Italy win.
  • dmm
    SBR MVP
    • 04-03-20
    • 1164

    #2
    Usually when I'm offered an odds boost, I compare the boost to a large market-making book like Pinnacle.

    What are the odds offered on Italy with the boost? Is it a 3-way market (Italy/Draw/Turkey)?
    Comment
    • ChuckyTheGoat
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 04-04-11
      • 37199

      #3
      I expect them to win. In-form team. Don't necessarily have the HUGE names that they did in the past.

      Younger team. They've posted several 2-0 type of scorelines. I'd expect them to create 2x as many chances as Turkey, should win.
      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
      Comment
      • Justin3587
        SBR MVP
        • 08-29-12
        • 2566

        #4
        Originally posted by dmm
        Usually when I'm offered an odds boost, I compare the boost to a large market-making book like Pinnacle.

        What are the odds offered on Italy with the boost? Is it a 3-way market (Italy/Draw/Turkey)?
        It’s -150 on Italy win. It was -189.
        Comment
        • lakerboy
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 04-02-09
          • 94379

          #5
          Originally posted by Justin3587
          It’s -150 on Italy win. It was -189.
          That's a great price. It's-200 everywhere. Italy will win. Turkey is not disciplined.
          Comment
          • JAKEPEAVY21
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 03-11-11
            • 29254

            #6
            Turkey has looked pretty damn good leading up to the Euro.

            I'm half Italian so pulling for Italy but Turkey worries me a bit.
            Comment
            • lakerboy
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 04-02-09
              • 94379

              #7
              Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21
              Turkey has looked pretty damn good leading up to the Euro.

              I'm half Italian so pulling for Italy but Turkey worries me a bit.
              They have and yet books are offering+800.
              Comment
              • JAKEPEAVY21
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 03-11-11
                • 29254

                #8
                Hoping Federico Chiesa has a big tourney.
                Comment
                • dmm
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-03-20
                  • 1164

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Justin3587
                  It’s -150 on Italy win. It was -189.
                  Yes, that's a positive expected value play. -150 is an implied probability of 60%. Pinnacle has Italy at -210. After accounting for juice, that's 66.30% fair implied probability.

                  Of course, Italy could still lose or draw, but the math is on your side here. I would play that every time, but I suspect the limit might be low on this type of boost.
                  Comment
                  • Sawyer
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 06-01-09
                    • 7716

                    #10
                    Turkey is a very unpredictable team. Usually tanks when favored. Likes to pull off upsets when underdog. There's a lack of discipline in the team but becomes a different team when motivated. Very emotional team, can beat ''any'' team if they're in the good mood. (1W-1D-0L against France -last World Cup Winner- in last 2 games)

                    Not a good record versus Italy though. 0W-3D-4L in last 7 matches.
                    Comment
                    • Justin3587
                      SBR MVP
                      • 08-29-12
                      • 2566

                      #11
                      Originally posted by dmm
                      Yes, that's a positive expected value play. -150 is an implied probability of 60%. Pinnacle has Italy at -210. After accounting for juice, that's 66.30% fair implied probability.

                      Of course, Italy could still lose or draw, but the math is on your side here. I would play that every time, but I suspect the limit might be low on this type of boost.
                      The max bet is 25 bucks. But it’s beneficial because I have a 25 risk free on soccer as well so.
                      Comment
                      • dmm
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-03-20
                        • 1164

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Justin3587
                        I have a 25 risk free on soccer as well so.
                        Using a risk free bet on a favorite isn't the best play. Ideally you want to use risk-free and freeplay bets on huge underdogs to maximize your return.
                        Comment
                        • jjgold
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 07-20-05
                          • 388179

                          #13
                          Odd boosts are useless Because the juice is already high
                          Comment
                          • Justin3587
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-29-12
                            • 2566

                            #14
                            Originally posted by dmm
                            Using a risk free bet on a favorite isn't the best play. Ideally you want to use risk-free and freeplay bets on huge underdogs to maximize your return.
                            Never really thought of it like that. Appreciate the advice.
                            Comment
                            • Risto234
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 02-20-20
                              • 193

                              #15
                              Saw somewhere that Turkey has participated in EUROs 4 times so far and each time they lost first groupgame so with that in mind i'd imagine this could be positive surprise if they dont lose here ...
                              Comment
                              • littlekona
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 11-19-15
                                • 5242

                                #16
                                this young Italian squad is very different from the typical old defense first teams. Very Young and aggressive plus very offensive with some absolute stars up front. They are a big player
                                Comment
                                • jjgold
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-20-05
                                  • 388179

                                  #17
                                  Italy best years are behind them, no idea what is going on in their programs anymore
                                  Comment
                                  • cincinnatikid513
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 11-23-17
                                    • 45360

                                    #18
                                    nice to see them scoring goals
                                    Comment
                                    • lakerboy
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 04-02-09
                                      • 94379

                                      #19
                                      Ciro Immobile is a goal scoring machine.
                                      Comment
                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 04-04-11
                                        • 37199

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by littlekona
                                        this young Italian squad is very different from the typical old defense first teams. Very Young and aggressive plus very offensive with some absolute stars up front. They are a big player
                                        Very much so. Different breed.

                                        The old Italian teams were so tactical. As if they were playing for a scoreline.
                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                        Comment
                                        • Allure
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 08-18-10
                                          • 7606

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                          Very much so. Different breed.

                                          The old Italian teams were so tactical. As if they were playing for a scoreline.
                                          The new team is even more tactical than ever. Mancini and the squad had Turkey's weaknesses figured out and prepared like a magician. Italy didn't win because they were superior technically but tactically. Turkeys manager was outplayed like an amateur. That was Turkeys worst outing in many

                                          This team is more tactical than ever. Bonucci said it himself in post game interview that they now play very tactical but finally attacking football.

                                          But still Italy isn't winning this thing.
                                          Comment
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