How good is Italy at soccer?

**dmm** · 06-11-21, 10:16 AM

Usually when I'm offered an odds boost, I compare the boost to a large market-making book like Pinnacle.

What are the odds offered on Italy with the boost? Is it a 3-way market (Italy/Draw/Turkey)?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-11-21, 10:17 AM

I expect them to win. In-form team. Don't necessarily have the HUGE names that they did in the past.

Younger team. They've posted several 2-0 type of scorelines. I'd expect them to create 2x as many chances as Turkey, should win.

**Justin3587** · 06-11-21, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by dmm

Usually when I'm offered an odds boost, I compare the boost to a large market-making book like Pinnacle.

What are the odds offered on Italy with the boost? Is it a 3-way market (Italy/Draw/Turkey)?

It’s -150 on Italy win. It was -189.

**lakerboy** · 06-11-21, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Justin3587

It’s -150 on Italy win. It was -189.

That's a great price. It's-200 everywhere. Italy will win. Turkey is not disciplined.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-11-21, 10:27 AM

Turkey has looked pretty damn good leading up to the Euro.

I'm half Italian so pulling for Italy but Turkey worries me a bit.

**lakerboy** · 06-11-21, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

Turkey has looked pretty damn good leading up to the Euro.

I'm half Italian so pulling for Italy but Turkey worries me a bit.

They have and yet books are offering+800.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-11-21, 10:32 AM

Hoping Federico Chiesa has a big tourney.

**dmm** · 06-11-21, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by Justin3587

It’s -150 on Italy win. It was -189.

Yes, that's a positive expected value play. -150 is an implied probability of 60%. Pinnacle has Italy at -210. After accounting for juice, that's 66.30% fair implied probability.

Of course, Italy could still lose or draw, but the math is on your side here. I would play that every time, but I suspect the limit might be low on this type of boost.

**Sawyer** · 06-11-21, 10:33 AM

Turkey is a very unpredictable team. Usually tanks when favored. Likes to pull off upsets when underdog. There's a lack of discipline in the team but becomes a different team when motivated. Very emotional team, can beat ''any'' team if they're in the good mood. (1W-1D-0L against France -last World Cup Winner- in last 2 games)

Not a good record versus Italy though. 0W-3D-4L in last 7 matches.

**Justin3587** · 06-11-21, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by dmm

Yes, that's a positive expected value play. -150 is an implied probability of 60%. Pinnacle has Italy at -210. After accounting for juice, that's 66.30% fair implied probability.

Of course, Italy could still lose or draw, but the math is on your side here. I would play that every time, but I suspect the limit might be low on this type of boost.

The max bet is 25 bucks. But it’s beneficial because I have a 25 risk free on soccer as well so.

**dmm** · 06-11-21, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by Justin3587

I have a 25 risk free on soccer as well so.

Using a risk free bet on a favorite isn't the best play. Ideally you want to use risk-free and freeplay bets on huge underdogs to maximize your return.

**jjgold** · 06-11-21, 11:09 AM

Odd boosts are useless Because the juice is already high

**Justin3587** · 06-11-21, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by dmm

Using a risk free bet on a favorite isn't the best play. Ideally you want to use risk-free and freeplay bets on huge underdogs to maximize your return.

Never really thought of it like that. Appreciate the advice.

**Risto234** · 06-11-21, 11:36 AM

Saw somewhere that Turkey has participated in EUROs 4 times so far and each time they lost first groupgame so with that in mind i'd imagine this could be positive surprise if they dont lose here ...

**littlekona** · 06-12-21, 12:55 PM

this young Italian squad is very different from the typical old defense first teams. Very Young and aggressive plus very offensive with some absolute stars up front. They are a big player

**jjgold** · 06-12-21, 12:58 PM

Italy best years are behind them, no idea what is going on in their programs anymore

**cincinnatikid513** · 06-12-21, 01:12 PM

nice to see them scoring goals

**lakerboy** · 06-12-21, 01:14 PM

Ciro Immobile is a goal scoring machine.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 06-12-21, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

this young Italian squad is very different from the typical old defense first teams. Very Young and aggressive plus very offensive with some absolute stars up front. They are a big player

Very much so. Different breed.

The old Italian teams were so tactical. As if they were playing for a scoreline.

**Allure** · 06-12-21, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Very much so. Different breed.

The old Italian teams were so tactical. As if they were playing for a scoreline.

The new team is even more tactical than ever. Mancini and the squad had Turkey's weaknesses figured out and prepared like a magician. Italy didn't win because they were superior technically but tactically. Turkeys manager was outplayed like an amateur. That was Turkeys worst outing in many

This team is more tactical than ever. Bonucci said it himself in post game interview that they now play very tactical but finally attacking football.

But still Italy isn't winning this thing.