[Ghenghis Kahn]

When heavy favorites are either tied or losing, 2nd half -6.5 rarely covers. This is both NFL and NCAA.

Can the math guys with bunch of data confirm? I think I found virtually free money.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

and NBA. just part of the daily scripting. who is the public going to at a reduced line / improved ML odds? 'the shitter team can't blow them out'

this is old info bro lmao

[WalkingLuckCharm]

current meta game is, which one is a trap and which one isn't?

i feel like what you stumbled across was more relevant decades ago

[Ghenghis Kahn]

We will see... I'll keep track. For tonight, Ball State 2nd half. Last one for the NFL was Tampa 2nd half vs NO

[KVB]

We will see... I'll keep track...

lol, I laughed at this. You'll keep track and then what?

This is a grab yo rooster volatile result and while you might be up this year fading the originally favored team who is now trailing or tied at half and favored by -6.5 2nd half you are only about 3 units above where you were ten years ago.

Like I said it's grab yo rooster volatile and you likely won't get past the first shake out when you track. You'll be so stuck in the trees you won't realize there's a forest.

It's a winner, if used correctly. I can be much more specific with the numbers but they might vary for you. After all, Ball St was a 7 point favorite with heavy juice on the dog, not 6.5. I guess it matters where you bet. Windowing doesn't make much of a difference though.

Don't fade that team in the NFL though, it's a bad move. In fact, go with that team, if you can find it. You'll get about 6 plays a year.

Not giving specifics because again I don't agree with your last play of TB and NO qualifying, and that isn't even close, they were more like 4.5 pt fves, unless you start really jacking prices like 5 Dimes might. So maybe I'm not sure what your asking there.

I also didn't distinguish with "heavy favorites" I just took all the favorites.

[hotcross]

I'm interested to follow this, but What do you mean by heavy favorite? I'm confused when you used the last example T.B. home vs N.O. on Sunday Night Nov.8 where Tampa was a -3 home favorite. Are you talking about lopsided money on a side pregame is what makes it a heavy favorite?

[hotcross]

Looks KVB hit submit a minute before I did with the similar question / observation

[KVB]

I'm interested to follow this, but What do you mean by heavy favorite? I'm confused when you used the last example T.B. home vs N.O. on Sunday Night Nov.8 where Tampa was a -3 home favorite. Are you talking about lopsided money on a side pregame is what makes it a heavy favorite?

I think he means line favorite. So TB was the favorite that night, and they were trailing at half, I think he just didn't realize that the halftime line was 4.5, not 6.5.

Had TB been a -6.5 fave at halftime, then it would qualify. That's what I got from it.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Yeah Tampa was a bad example. I'll go back and find some that fit this pattern.

But when I say heavy favorites, I mean at least -7.5 for NFL and double digits for NCAA.

When books put up -6.5 for 2nd half. Bettors think, all they have to do is score a TD and I win.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Looking back at the numbers, this scenario doesn't happen very often. Only couple games fit this pattern... Miss St vs LSU on 9/26 (Line was -14 and 2nd half line was -6.5) and LSU vs Missouri on 10/10 (Line was -14 and 2nd half line was -6.5).

In the NFL, LV vs KC on 10/11 (Line was -10 but the 2nd half line was -6 and not -6.5) and Miami vs SF on 10/11 (Line was -8 but 2nd half line was -7 and not -6.5).

These two games on the same day had similar patterns one covered and one didn't... Denver vs NE on 10/12 (Line was -7 and 2nd half line was -6.5) and Chargers vs NO (Line was -7 and 2nd half line was -7)

Only other game that kind of fit this patter was Cincy vs Indy on 10/18 (Line was -7.5 and 2nd half line was -6).

Very small sample size but -6.5 2nd half lines when the heavy favorites are down seems like a great bet. Too bad this scenario doesn't occur very often.

[RudyRuetigger]

worth thinking about


good info in this thread

[KVB]

KC is a favorite tonight, trailing at half, and are now -6.5 at half.

I will show how this metric operates, especially in recent times. For now, know that it is like 1-3 this year and has room to fall further.

That's why this spot play is "grab yo rooster" style. Remember, for the NFL, it is not wise to fade the favored team, in general, in this spot.

Sure you might be 3-1 this year, but the bettor has little context, it's not like college and variance here is deceiving.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

I will go back when I have time and see how this pattern did last year and the year before.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

KVB You said 2-6 in the NFL in 2019? I guess I missed the 4 losses you mentioned. Please post the games I missed. Thanks

2019

9/8/19 Cincy vs Seattle Line was -9 2nd half line -6.5 LOSE
10/6/19 Indy vs KC Line was -10.5 2nd half line -6.5 LOSE
12/9/19 Giants vs Philly Line was -9 2nd half line -6.5 Win
12/22/19 Detroit vs Denver Line was -8.5 2nd half line -6.5 Win


And read the OP. It say tied or losing. Reading comprehension issues? I'll be waiting.

[gauchojake]

Wait I am confused was there free money or no free money?

[KVB]

KVB You said 2-6 in the NFL in 2019? I guess I missed the 4 losses you mentioned. Please post the games I missed. Thanks

2019

9/8/19 Cincy vs Seattle Line was -9 2nd half line -6.5 LOSE
10/6/19 Indy vs KC Line was -10.5 2nd half line -6.5 LOSE
12/9/19 Giants vs Philly Line was -9 2nd half line -6.5 Win
12/22/19 Detroit vs Denver Line was -8.5 2nd half line -6.5 Win


And read the OP. It say tied or losing. Reading comprehension issues? I'll be waiting.

Pass, I set you straight in the other thread.

You are just dorking around at this point.

[gauchojake]

Are we going to see more KVB vs Kahn battle royale action????????????????

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Pass, I set you straight in the other thread.

You are just dorking around at this point.

LOL you're a fukking fraud. Just throwing up bullshit numbers and calling it "fact". Unlike squares on this site. I actually call out on your bullshit. Regardless of whether this pattern is profitable or not, don't fukking lie. I will expose you. Anyway, get out of my thread. You're a clown I already exposed you long ago and you will always be my little bitch.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Only two plays for the NFL in 2018

12/2/18 Jets vs Tenn Line -9.5 2nd half line -6.5 WIN

12/16/18 Philly vs Rams Line -13.5 2nd half line -6.5 LOSE

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Are we going to see more KVB vs Kahn battle royale action????????????????

Nah, he'll cry out to Opti like a little bitch. Also, I've seen his pic. He's a little nerd. He wouldn't dare mess with me in real life.

[KVB]

Are we going to see more KVB vs Kahn battle royale action????????????????

LOL no, guy is just a drama queen, forogt he posted about ties, forgot where the 2-6 came from, then feels hurt so makes that idiot post above.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post29906385

I'm done wasting time with his back and forth bad examples, typos, "forgetfullness" and ego.

He takes being wrong so personally when it was a simple tie he forgot.

I wasted enough time.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Ok later loser. Don't enter my threads again. People like you are the reason why no one posts about sportbetting strategies in Players Talk.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

I hear you, I've used this metric with a little bit of windowing for two decades.

This year so far, fading that favorite in the NFL would have you 3-1, +2 units, but last year you would have been 2-6.

Context and that little extra bit of capping help make this useful.

That's right, forgot about that.

Fading those are even worse. It's should be obvious why over time this true.

You'll get more plays taking all favorites, and you'll get better results, however you try to force it.

Even the home/road split doesn't reveal a good auto fade here. It's just a fact of the NFL.

Yeah worse than 2-6.

Anyway, this thread is done. Waste of fukking time trying to discuss sportsbetting on Players Talk

[KVB]

“Hey everybody I think fading for 6 1/2 favorite at half time is free money, but I have no clue so can anyone confirm?”

”Good idea in college but don’t do it in the NFL”

”Screw that, I track my own games not following the parameters I put and it’s 2-2 so I’m pounding”

“That’s not a good idea in the NFL you will lose”

”I like to argue on the Internet so everyone else is wrong, even though I know I am clueless, which is why I started this thread so I’m pounding... My bet lost and everyone else is stupid because I know it all. To prevent looking like a dumbass again I won’t try to discuss sports betting in players talk”



These egotistical internet tough guys always fail.

LMAO

[jjgold]

It is just as good as any other method

[gauchojake]

jj 5 finger death punch or avenged sevenfold??????????????????//

[KVB]