What team in this 7 team ML parlay is the weak link?

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  • Nittany Lion
    SBR MVP
    • 09-14-10
    • 1639

    #1
    What team in this 7 team ML parlay is the weak link?


    So this is a 7 team parlay with a bunch of heavy ML favs that pays +133. I got a $500 free bet on draftkings and instead of just putting it on the spread in a game I'm thinking of doing this instead. What team would you switch out and substitute for or what team do you think is the weak link and has a good chance of losing?

    There's also a few other heavy favs I was considering but didn't use:

    Boise State -715 against Air Force
    Texas A&M -530 against Arkansas
    SMU -480 against Navy
    Oklahoma -670 against Texas Texh
    Last edited by Nittany Lion; 10-28-20, 11:11 PM.
  • 19th Hole
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-22-09
    • 18847

    #2
    Florida may be the weakest link.
    Comment
    • SnakesPicks
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-05-13
      • 685

      #3
      Minnesota is probably the weakest link.
      Comment
      • mjsuax13
        Moderator
        • 03-14-15
        • 24862

        #4
        Looks good. Georgia & Florida get cute every now and then.
        Comment
        • mjsuax13
          Moderator
          • 03-14-15
          • 24862

          #5
          Originally posted by SnakesPicks
          Minnesota is probably the weakest link.
          I agree they could be weak but Maryland is awful.
          Comment
          • Buckandadime
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 04-21-15
            • 8847

            #6
            Looks solid to me..
            Gun to head, pick one that I think is weakest then I would have to say ND..
            Just don't think they are that good but they should beat Tech..
            Might throw Tulsa in there @ -800 or whatever they are..
            Finally get to play a home game and its vs. E. Carolina..
            GL Nittany...
            Comment
            • 19th Hole
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-22-09
              • 18847

              #7
              Boise St may be a good add-on from your sub-group.
              Comment
              • ace7550
                SBR MVP
                • 05-08-15
                • 3729

                #8
                Tampa weakest link. I do think they'll win. But if I had to choose one that would be it. Good luck!
                Comment
                • Orbison
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-07-20
                  • 4692

                  #9
                  to get a better payout, exchange the Chiefs and ND with 2 of the other faves you were considering
                  Comment
                  • rm18
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 09-20-05
                    • 22291

                    #10
                    Switch Bucs to A@M
                    Comment
                    • KVB
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 05-29-14
                      • 74817

                      #11
                      Is Penn State scrappy enough? Probably not. I'll get slaughtered if I say Ohio St is the weak link, but look out. Minnesota? I don't know, Maryland is pretty bad.

                      Notre Dame and the Chiefs are probably overpriced there quite a bit, look at your secondary list to sub those out...like Orbison said.

                      I saw you mentioned SMU, don't underestimate Navy here. At the very least, that Navy spread was too large and we have seen it drop. Can't rule out the upset there.

                      Good Luck

                      Last edited by KVB; 10-28-20, 11:44 PM. Reason: edit didn't see some posts above me
                      Comment
                      • mjsuax13
                        Moderator
                        • 03-14-15
                        • 24862

                        #12
                        It’s not going to be a normal season and we must remember that. Penn State capable but damn... I just don’t see it.
                        Comment
                        • Nittany Lion
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-14-10
                          • 1639

                          #13
                          Originally posted by 19th Hole
                          Florida may be the weakest link.
                          I'm a little concerned about that one as well, Florida's defense not the best but they are at home...hmmmm. Missou pretty bad as well and has a garbage defense though.
                          Originally posted by 19th Hole
                          Boise St may be a good add-on from your sub-group.
                          I was strongly considering Boise St but they are playing Air Force which is a scappy team that could give them a fight...Air Force not bad at home.
                          Originally posted by KVB
                          Is Penn State scrappy enough? Probably not. I'll get slaughtered if I say Ohio St is the weak link, but look out. Minnesota? I don't know, Maryland is pretty bad.

                          Notre Dame and the Chiefs are probably overpriced there quite a bit, look at your secondary list to sub those out...like Orbison said.

                          I saw you mentioned SMU, don't underestimate Navy here. At the very least, that Navy spread was too large and we have seen it drop. Can't rule out the upset there.

                          Good Luck

                          I'm a Penn State fan graduated 2008, no way we beat Ohio State this season. Not after how we looked against Indiana and no fans in the stadium to give us home field advantage. Last couple of years we had better players and still couldn't beat Ohio State, just don't have the horses this year.
                          Comment
                          • ThaTopMoron
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 04-30-10
                            • 27018

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Nittany Lion


                            So this is a 7 team parlay with a bunch of heavy ML favs that pays +133. I got a $500 free bet on draftkings and instead of just putting it on the spread in a game I'm thinking of doing this instead. What team would you switch out and substitute for or what team do you think is the weak link and has a good chance of losing?

                            There's also a few other heavy favs I was considering but didn't use:

                            Boise State -715 against Air Force
                            Texas A&M -530 against Arkansas
                            SMU -480 against Navy
                            Oklahoma -670 against Texas Texh
                            Florida

                            will Minnesota have a true punter available... if you didn't watch them vs michigan you better look into it. that's why they went for it on 4th down on their own 30 or whatever and tried a horrible fake... why didn't they just line up on offense and run a real play is beyond me. if you know the punter isn't a punter and will only punt it maybe 20 yards then just line up on offense and execute. coaches are so bad sometimes makes you laugh

                            but yeah

                            I wouldn't trust Florida
                            Comment
                            • ThaTopMoron
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 04-30-10
                              • 27018

                              #15
                              do not use SMU

                              Boise looks good to go as some said

                              never trust Oklahoma
                              Comment
                              • Eddy Munny
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 08-13-13
                                • 15749

                                #16
                                I'd say Bucs most likely to lose out of that group.
                                Comment
                                • Headsterx
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 12-03-16
                                  • 22468

                                  #17
                                  Good points on Buckeyes but it's still an away game and x-factor of no tune-up games may allow Lions to pull an upset.

                                  And Bucs as it might be the game old man gets injured. All of them are solid but thinking of which one maybe susceptible to an upset.
                                  Comment
                                  • Nittany Lion
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-14-10
                                    • 1639

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by ThaTopMoron

                                    Florida

                                    will Minnesota have a true punter available... if you didn't watch them vs michigan you better look into it. that's why they went for it on 4th down on their own 30 or whatever and tried a horrible fake... why didn't they just line up on offense and run a real play is beyond me. if you know the punter isn't a punter and will only punt it maybe 20 yards then just line up on offense and execute. coaches are so bad sometimes makes you laugh

                                    but yeah

                                    I wouldn't trust Florida
                                    Originally posted by ThaTopMoron
                                    do not use SMU

                                    Boise looks good to go as some said

                                    never trust Oklahoma
                                    I'll prob ditch Florida then, I didn't watch the Minnesota game but Maryland is so garbage I don't know if a punter will matter in that game. I want to put Boise State in there instead of Florida but scrappy Air Force always fights Boise hard...Air Force at home as well with that added advanatge.
                                    Comment
                                    • ThaTopMoron
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 04-30-10
                                      • 27018

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Nittany Lion
                                      I'll prob ditch Florida then, I didn't watch the Minnesota game but Maryland is so garbage I don't know if a punter will matter in that game. I want to put Boise State in there instead of Florida but scrappy Air Force always fights Boise hard...Air Force at home as well with that added advanatge.
                                      minnesota gets some iffy holding calls gets backed up and has to punt from their own 5...

                                      dude they had trying to punt shanked one later in game after the failed fake punt and he punted it 18 yards LOL

                                      if you are wondering how Michigan got hot and just kept on rolling in that game

                                      but maybe real punter is back?

                                      i think Boise gets a lead and will eventually force air force to the pass game and it's ball game

                                      but every game has it's risk... Florida probably rolls since everyone is iffy on them
                                      Comment
                                      • Enkhbat
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-18-11
                                        • 3145

                                        #20
                                        Definitely don't add Oklahoma, Florida is risky as well.
                                        Comment
                                        • ThaTopMoron
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 04-30-10
                                          • 27018

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Nittany Lion
                                          I'll prob ditch Florida then, I didn't watch the Minnesota game but Maryland is so garbage I don't know if a punter will matter in that game. I want to put Boise State in there instead of Florida but scrappy Air Force always fights Boise hard...Air Force at home as well with that added advanatge.
                                          here I found some info

                                          if you use them good luck if they are screwed again at punter, kicker and kickoff return specialist and maryland mad off a 3 point game gets to take advantage of a number of short fields

                                          https://www.startribune.com/gophers-...ong/572880231/



                                          A return to normalcy on the special teams would help, too. Because of COVID-19 issues, the Gophers were without starting punter Mark Crawford, first-string kicker Michael Lantz and top kickoff man Grant Ryerse, though all three were on the sideline. The absences contributed to Michigan starting possessions at the Minnesota 45 (after a 31-yard punt), at the 8 (after a 66-yard kickoff return) and at the 47 (after an 18-yard punt) in the first half. “It kind of hit the specialists hard, and it hit them at different times,” Fleck said after the game.
                                          The status of those three is uncertain for the Maryland game.
                                          Comment
                                          • thetrinity
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-25-11
                                            • 22430

                                            #22
                                            they all look good until after they happen
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                                            • johnnyvegas13
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 05-21-15
                                              • 27819

                                              #23
                                              One of those college road favs lose
                                              Comment
                                              • Nittany Lion
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 09-14-10
                                                • 1639

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Enkhbat
                                                Definitely don't add Oklahoma, Florida is risky as well.
                                                Yeah gonna eliminate Florida.


                                                Originally posted by ThaTopMoron

                                                here I found some info

                                                if you use them good luck if they are screwed again at punter, kicker and kickoff return specialist and maryland mad off a 3 point game gets to take advantage of a number of short fields

                                                https://www.startribune.com/gophers-...ong/572880231/



                                                A return to normalcy on the special teams would help, too. Because of COVID-19 issues, the Gophers were without starting punter Mark Crawford, first-string kicker Michael Lantz and top kickoff man Grant Ryerse, though all three were on the sideline. The absences contributed to Michigan starting possessions at the Minnesota 45 (after a 31-yard punt), at the 8 (after a 66-yard kickoff return) and at the 47 (after an 18-yard punt) in the first half. “It kind of hit the specialists hard, and it hit them at different times,” Fleck said after the game.
                                                The status of those three is uncertain for the Maryland game.
                                                Hmmm good find might have to toss Minnesota out of it, wonder why the books have Minnesota such a heavy fav when their special team guys are all out with Covid.


                                                Originally posted by thetrinity
                                                they all look good until after they happen
                                                Right, some team will screw me proably.
                                                Comment
                                                • Mr KLC
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-19-07
                                                  • 30995

                                                  #25
                                                  Minnesota is 6-0 ATS L6G as conference favorite;

                                                  Maryland is 1-8-1 ATS when line is >-10;
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                                                  • ThaTopMoron
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 04-30-10
                                                    • 27018

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Nittany Lion
                                                    Yeah gonna eliminate Florida.



                                                    Hmmm good find might have to toss Minnesota out of it, wonder why the books have Minnesota such a heavy fav when their special team guys are all out with Covid.



                                                    Right, some team will screw me proably.
                                                    Minny might be able to win but it might be a sweat the entire game who knows

                                                    any 19 point dogs ever win a football game before?
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                                                    • Otters27
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 07-14-07
                                                      • 30749

                                                      #27
                                                      It's always the one I don't expect
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                                                      • lakerboy
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 04-02-09
                                                        • 94368

                                                        #28
                                                        Every chalk parlay looks great before the games start. Then after 2/3 lose and you wonder how?
                                                        Get rid of florida
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 007D
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-04-14
                                                          • 768

                                                          #29
                                                          Notre Dame .. Minnesota .. Ohio State.. Boise State .Oklahoma and 1 N.F.L team Tampa Bay. There is your winner. Leave K.C out No value at -2000 and you want to avoid to many N.F.L Games. I agree with everyone else leave Florida whether they do it or not I wouldn't risk them. You would be pissed if they jacked it up.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • homerbush
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-17-08
                                                            • 2317

                                                            #30
                                                            Just the fact there are too many. I limit my chalk MLs parlays to 4 teams. I would just leave out all the 4 digit ones. I did this one: Tulsa, Ohio State, SMU, Louisiana Laf.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Nittany Lion
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 09-14-10
                                                              • 1639

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by homerbush
                                                              Just the fact there are too many. I limit my chalk MLs parlays to 4 teams. I would just leave out all the 4 digit ones. I did this one: Tulsa, Ohio State, SMU, Louisiana Laf.
                                                              I have a $500 free bet on Draftkings I have to place before it expires in a few hours so I'm trying to get as close to +100 odds or a little above is fine. If I bet those 4 teams you mentioned then it comes out to like ‐120 odds which I don't want to do for a free bet.
                                                              Last edited by Nittany Lion; 10-30-20, 03:26 PM.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Nittany Lion
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 09-14-10
                                                                • 1639

                                                                #32
                                                                Alright everyone, I ditched Florida and Chiefs. I got Texas A&M and Boise State in here and the parlay is at +134 odds so my DraftKings $500 free bet has the chance of winning $669.81. Should I get rid of Boise State or Texas A&M or keep them both? If I do drop one of those teams, the payout just drops to closer to +100 odds which is fine but think it's safe to put both of them in? My goal is to get +100 or better. Final thoughts?

                                                                Last edited by Nittany Lion; 10-30-20, 03:09 PM.
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                                                                • KVB
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 05-29-14
                                                                  • 74817

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Good Luck Lion!!!!

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 007D
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-04-14
                                                                    • 768

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Good Luck " I think you got it.. keep all if them. The + is really good. Plus free bet.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Nittany Lion
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 09-14-10
                                                                      • 1639

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by KVB
                                                                      Good Luck Lion!!!!

                                                                      Originally posted by 007D
                                                                      Good Luck " I think you got it.. keep all if them. The + is really good. Plus free bet.
                                                                      All right bet is placed, we'll see what happens
                                                                      Comment
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