Week 8 college football best bets: Who grabs the Little Brown Jug? 🏈
Week 8 college football best bets: Who grabs the Little Brown Jug?
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (3-1 last week, 13-4 overall), Bill Connelly (0-1, 9-8), Preston Johnson (2-1, 12-9), David M. Hale (1-1, 9-7) and Seth Walder (0-0, 3-3) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 8 of the college football season.
Hale: The number is low, but that should be expected. These are two pretty bad offenses. But we've also got two pretty good defenses, at least thus far. That's not shocking in Tulsa's case -- the Golden Hurricane held Oklahoma State, minus its starting quarterback, to just 16 points in its opener and shut down UCF in the second half of a stunning upset two weeks ago. But South Florida has been solid, too, at least when it comes to big plays. The Bulls have the fourth-best rate in terms of allowing explosive plays among all teams with at least two games played. Tulsa, for what it's worth, ranks 22nd in that category. Meanwhile, Tulsa is 1-6 reaching the total in its past seven games after more than a week off. Add it all up and this should be a grind-it-out game with points few and far between.
Kezirian: I am still a fan of Louisville coach Scott Satterfield, but I've been disappointed at times with his clock management and defense. Consequently, I cannot lay the points, even though it reeks of a flat spot for Florida State off the big upset of North Carolina. However, I trust the Cardinals can score against a leaky Seminoles defense. Quarterback Malik Cunningham can have some frustrating moments, but all in all he's solid and always finds a way to incorporate speedster Tutu Atwell, which is a good thing.
Johnson: First and foremost, I make this number Iowa State +2.5, so getting the hook on the other side of the key number of 3 is a worthwhile advantage. Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders is slated to return from injury and has been practicing, but there are rumors QB Shane Illingworth is still going to get some time as well. I've never really understood the rotating quarterbacks between series strategy, nor have I seen it work.
The market reaction to the Cyclones' loss to Louisiana to open the season out of conference appears to have been too drastic. With a 3-0 start in Big 12, play including a come-from-behind victory over Oklahoma, it's safe to expect more out of Iowa State QB Brock Purdy than a rotating quarterback attack for a Cowboys squad relying on Chuba Hubbard against the 13th-best run defense in the country.
Connelly: Exactly how good do we think Rice is supposed to be here? Even after Middle Tennessee's late collapse against North Texas last week -- the Blue Raiders were up 28-21 late in the first half but got outscored 31-7 the rest of the way, which dropped them from 102nd to 113th in SP+ -- I'm still looking at only a 0.1-point advantage for Rice, per SP+. And that's with a full 2.5-point home-field advantage, which the Owls are unlikely to generate.
Middle Tennessee has rebounded somewhat after a horrid start, playing three consecutive close games (and winning one) before the North Texas collapse, but even if the Blue Raiders aren't in great form, Rice is still debuting at 117th overall and has played six fewer games than them. I have no idea why the Owls are favored, especially by more than a field goal.
Hale: Here's a game where the eye test might be deceptive. On one hand, you have Missouri, off an upset in which its freshman QB completed 85% of his throws with four touchdowns. On the other hand, you have Kentucky coming off two good wins -- but both in which its offense did little to nothing. In fact, the Wildcats are just the 10th team since 2010 to win back-to-back games vs. Power 5 competition while managing less than 300 yards of offense in both. Funny thing is, of the previous nine teams to do that, seven won their next game and six ended up with 10 wins on the season. Winning ugly is actually a sign of good teams, and we think Kentucky might be pretty good.
Then look at the defenses. Missouri has allowed 35 points or more in all three games this season while Kentucky's D is among the best in the nation. Connor Bazelak isn't going to have the same success this week he did against LSU. The Wildcats win this one big -- with at least one defensive TD in the mix.
Hale: Last week's performance is a bit misleading. Yes, BC was blown out by Virginia Tech, but that game started with turnovers in Hokies territory on three of BC's first four drives (the other was an Eagles touchdown). Add in another Eagles interception deep in Virginia Tech territory in the fourth quarter and you get an idea of how badly BC shot itself in the foot against a very good Hokies team. Now recall that Georgia Tech just let Clemson hang 73 on it, has struggled against the run and is prone to turnovers of its own. Moreover, BC has been a cover machine of late in ACC play -- 20-7-1 against the spread since 2017.
Connelly: Troy narrowly survived a funky, 31-29 game against Eastern Kentucky last week; the Trojans outgained the Colonels 7.0-5.4 in yards per play, but turnovers gave EKU a massive field position advantage and set up touchdown drives of 3 and 30 yards. It wasn't a great showing by Troy, but it wasn't as bad as the score, either.
SP+ still gives the Trojans a 6.9-point advantage over Georgia State, primarily because both teams have pretty good offenses, but only Troy can prevent explosions. Troy is a solid 24th in my marginal explosiveness measure (which looks at the magnitude of a team's successful plays and adjusts for field position), while GSU is 67th out of 76 teams that have played so far. I wouldn't be surprised if the point total goes over, but I do think Troy has more than a field goal advantage.
Kezirian: It takes a strong stomach to bet an under in any football game, but I think this situation calls for it. First, the Tigers are likely to turn to a backup quarterback to replace injured starter Myles Brennan, and both options are freshmen. Also, the Tigers' defense has certainly regressed this season, but a deeper dive suggests the under is the right play. LSU ranks fifth worst in all of FBS in yards allowed per pass attempt, while the rushing stats are not nearly as awful. South Carolina is not really a passing team, so I doubt the Gamecocks can capitalize on LSU's biggest weakness. They're a tough team that wants to run the ball. Furthermore, I prefer the under in the first half because I avoid a situation if one team trails by multiple scores and starts to press. That usually results in turnovers.
Connelly: Call this a battle of knowns versus unknowns. Michigan has major upside, but most of it comes from an exciting sophomore class. The offense improved a ton during the second half of last season -- from 66th to 21st in offensive SP+ -- but the passing game has gotten a major overhaul. The Wolverines have a higher ceiling than Minnesota but, at least at the start, a much lower floor.
Minnesota also has wide receiver Rashod Bateman and quarterback Tanner Morgan. The Michigan secondary should be solid, but Minnesota's passing game could be more than that if new offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. doesn't change much. I know the Golden Gophers started slowly last season before picking up steam, and if that happens again this pick could fall apart quickly. But this is a veteran squad. I'm excited to see what Michigan has to offer, but I trust Minnesota slightly more right now. And so does SP+, apparently.
Walder: Northwestern boasted the 41st-most efficient defense last season, but its ability to cover this spread will likely hinge on its offense, which was ugly in 2019, ranking 118th. The unit does have a nice mix of returning experience with new talent. Most notably, former Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey -- who finished 13th in Total QBR last season -- is in under center, under the direction of new offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian (though ESPN's Football Power Index doesn't know about that latter part). The Wildcats bring back their three top running backs and three top receivers from last season.
That's in contrast to Maryland, which has no such certainty of strong ability at quarterback and lost its top two running backs from last season to the NFL draft. Both offenses are bringing back two starters along the offensive line.
Accounting for all of that information is FPI, which favors Northwestern by 18.5 -- a far cry from this line. After our statisticians reworked FPI's priors this offseason, it performed particularly well in the early part of the season. While I'm wary of reading too much into a small sample, if there's something there it would stand to reason that FPI might do well again with teams that have yet to play a game this season.
Johnson: My fair projection for the total is closer to 58, so considering we have possible snow and 10-15 mph winds in the forecast Saturday night, playing under at 61 is a no-brainer. BYU is a large favorite with massive blowout potential anyway come the fourth quarter, and we saw a pass-heavy Texas State team struggle to move the ball in windy conditions against Troy two weeks ago, with just 93 yards on 28 attempts. BYU's defense is a tier above Troy's (or anybody else the Bobcats have faced this season, for that matter). This is one of my favorite bets of the year.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Week 8 college football best bets: Who grabs the Little Brown Jug? 🏈
Reply With Quote
