[Hman]

Best bets for PGA Tour: Zozo Championship at Sherwood

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The PGA Tour heads to Thousand Oaks, California, for the Zozo Championship at Sherwood Country Club. Defending champion Tiger Woods returns to action for the first time since missing the cut at the U.S. Open. Phil Mickelson, fresh off his second senior tour win in two tries, is also in the field. The tournament originally was to be played in Japan but was moved because of the coronavirus pandemic.


Who is underrated, and whom should you fade? Which bets and props are worth a look?


Sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.

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Bets to win

Webb Simpson 18-1; Simpson (-125) over Patrick Reed (+100)

Marks: The fact that Sherwood CC has five par 5s and five par 3s has me feeling Webb this week, considering he is one of the best on tour scoring on both. You can leave your driver in the bag here, and the advantage in metrics is in approach and putting on bentgrass, which Webb excels at. Creative shot-makers with excellent ball striking skills win here.


Collin Morikawa 20-1; +375 top 5

Bearman: Players have described Sherwood as a ball-striker's course ... get it out there and shape shots to big, elevated greens. As we have seen these past few months, Morikawa is one of the best with the irons, riding them to a PGA Championship win over the summer. Morikawa finished the 2019-20 season second in shots gained on approach, fifth in shots gained tee to green and 14th in shots gained overall. He also had a respectable T-12th last week at Shadow Creek and has done well on courses he has not played before, a situation that normally scares people off. If his putting stroke is on this week, Morikawa at 20-1 would have some good value.


Matthew Wolff 30-1; +250 top 10

Bearman: If I have learned any lesson this golf season, it's "stick with your guys." I won with Webb Simpson at the RBC Heritage a week after he missed the cut at Colonial when I had him. I had Wolff last week at Shadow Creek, trying to play off his second-place finish the week before. That was a colossal miss, as he finished 73rd out of 77 players. But I'm back riding with him this week. Why? Well, for one, he grew up playing Sherwood and said this week, "I can't really remember much, but I've played that course 1,000 times." Good enough for me. As far as Wolff's game, before last week's forgettable 73rd-place finish, he went second (U.S. Open) and T-2nd (Shriners). He's 19th in shots gained on approach and someone I expect to be in contention the entire weekend.


Viktor Hovland 30-1; +100 top 20

Bearman: I was looking for someone with good recent form with decent odds and came across Hovland, who has not missed a cut since the tour resumed in June and has finished in the top 25 nine times, including both starts of the 2020-21 season. As reliable as they come, Hovland has made 13 cuts since the restart, the most of anyone, and rebounded from a first-round 75 last week to finish T-12th in Vegas. He's currently 15th in shots gained tee to green after finishing 20th last season. He also finished seventh in shots gained on approach, a big stat this week at Sherwood.

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Prop bets

Tiger Woods (-105) over Hideki Matsuyama (-120)

Bearman: No one has played tournaments better at Sherwood than Tiger, who finished first or second in 10 of 12 Hero World Challenges held there over the last two decades. It was a different type of event with a much smaller field back then, but the course is still the same, and it's one Tiger loves. While the 30-1 to win is appealing, having not seen him much lately and without any top-25 finishes since the break from the pandemic, it's hard to take him to win. But I like the matchup with Hideki here. Matsuyama has played OK, not great, since his third-place finish at the BMW in August. You get Tiger as a slight dog over four rounds at a course he likes.


Justin Thomas +275 top 5; Thomas/Xander Schauffele straight forecast 130-1 (at DraftKings)

Marks: Coming off a 12th-place finish last week at the CJ Cup, which would have been even better if not for a final-round 74. JT is at the top of this field in strokes gained tee to green, T-4 in par 3 birdies or better and T-9 around the green this season. I love the metrics and dig the dude in the fall season, where he shines.


Wolff +250 top 10; Wolff (-105) over Hovland (-120)

Marks: Most golfers teeing it up this week will be very unfamiliar with the Sherwood track, but Wolff will be one of the exceptions. Wolff was raised 10 miles away from the club, and I'm banking on his knowledge of the course having more impact than his ankle injury. The metrics are impressive: 19th in strokes gained on approach, T-13 from 150 to 175 yard in and T-14 in par-5 scoring this season.


Matthew Fitzpatrick +105 top 20; Fitzpatrick (-120) over Russell Henley (-105); Top European player +800 (at DK)

Marks: Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite plays this week. He is coming in hot after finishing 12th in Vegas last week and dominating on strokes on approach. He is not long off the tee, but he is a great ball-striker, and that gets rewarded at Sherwood. Metrics that matter: 11th in strokes gained on approach and T-16 in par 3 birdies or better this season.

[jjgold]

Hovland at a price