Ranking all 32 NFL teams by their under-25 talent for 2020 🏈
Ranking all 32 NFL teams by their under-25 talent for 2020
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Quarterbacks have generated a year of dramatic risers and fallers in Football Outsiders' ranking of teams by their talent that is under 25 years old. With the public pressure on teams to start their rookie passers in Week 1 -- or at least as soon as their placeholder veterans lose a few games -- it's little wonder that players such as Baker Mayfield can swing their teams' standings by 10 or more spots once they accumulate more than their few hundred freshman pass attempts.
After a different sort of regression, one such player propelled his team to the top spot for 2020. Despite their disappointing playoff exits the past two seasons, they are in even better shape than the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs to make Super Bowl trips over the next few seasons.
These ratings consider not just talent under age 25, but also the value and length of those players' current contracts. This will push up the teams with productive players who have several years left on inexpensive rookie contracts and push down the teams that have already had to, or will soon have to, pay their experienced young talent.
Here are our rankings for this season. All ages are as of Sept. 1, 2020. "Blue chip" players are cornerstone assets from whom teams will likely derive their biggest future value. Players are considered "graduated" if they have turned 25. Read through the full file 1 to 32, or jump to your favorite team by clicking on a link here:
Football Outsiders research has shown that quarterbacks tend to make their biggest performance jumps from Year 1 to Year 2, but Lamar Jackson's sophomore breakout was the Bob Beamon of those.
As a rookie, Jackson was a product of a system that was designed to highlight his strengths and avoid his weaknesses. He was an inefficient passer with a 58% completion rate and -9.2% DVOA, but he only threw 23 passes per game. In 2019, Jackson became the kind of quarterback who can carry a franchise no matter their system or other problems. His passing rates spiked to 66% completions and 34.9% DVOA. His rushing efficiency flipped from -27.2% to 20.5% DVOA thanks in large part to a reduction from 12 to nine fumbles despite eight additional starts -- Jackson seems to have developed a talent to avoid big hits even when he cuts toward the middle of the field and even when defenders appear to take the proper angle to tackle him. Altogether, Jackson led the position with an 81.8 QBR and was named NFL MVP.
But the Ravens don't need Jackson to solve all of their problems. They continue to use a system that takes advantage of Jackson's talents, but they have also accumulated exceptional young depth on both sides of the ball. Jackson's favorite target -- Mark Andrews -- came from his same 2018 draft class. The third-round tight end finished seventh with 123 DYAR at a position whose efficiency leaders tend to be more experienced veterans and made his teammate and fellow tight end Hayden Hurst expendable in a trade with the Falcons. Jackson seldom needed to open up the offense beyond its running game and tight end targets, but 2019 first-rounder Marquise Brown still stretched the field with more than one-fifth of his catches coming on passes thrown 20 or more yards in the air. Miles Boykin can do the same and should also contribute more in the red zone in 2020 with his exceptional size at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds and leaping ability. Third-round receiver Devin Duvernay complements Brown and Boykin with his slot quickness, and second-round running back J.K. Dobbins should seamlessly replace an aging Mark Ingram either in 2021 when Ingram's contract escalates or in 2022 when it expires. Finally, right tackle Orlando Brown was one of five Baltimore linemen with 500 or more snaps and a 1.5% blown block rate or better. His development into a Pro Bowl blocker should help the team survive the loss of retired eventual Hall of Famer Marshal Yanda.
Neither pass-rusher Jaylon Ferguson (15 hurries) nor 25-year-old Tyus Bowser (22) ascended to fully replace Za'Darius Smith (66), who left for the Packers in 2019 in free agency. But the Ravens maintained a top-three pass defense thanks in large part to excellent coverage anchored by All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey's 67% coverage success rate and 5.0 allowed yards per target were top six among positional qualifiers, ahead even of Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore (57%, 6.4). If the Ravens had any weakness in 2019, it was on run defense. But the team likely erased that deficiency with its first- and third-round draft selections of linebackers Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison, the former of whom has the speed and athleticism to excel in coverage and play all three downs. The Ravens have so much young talent that they could have pushed for the top spot in these rankings even without Jackson under center.
The Giants are not the Ravens. While the latter climbed to the top of the list on the strength of exceptional talent evaluation and development, the former reached their place in the rankings with volume. GM Dave Gettleman inherited a three-win Giants team with the No. 2 pick in 2018, made a slew of trades and acquisitions in opposition to analytics, and earned two more top-six picks on the heels of five- and four-win seasons. And yet, Gettleman could have the last laugh. He might not have maximized his return on investment in Saquon Barkley and Dexter Lawrence at their draft positions in the first round. But Barkley again broke a tackle on more than one-fifth of his touches in 2019 and looks like a generational running back at still just 23 years old. And with 18 hurries in his rookie season, Lawrence showed surprising versatility for a player who looks the part of an old-school run-stopper.
Still, the success or failure of this promising Giants roster will rest on the shoulders of quarterback Daniel Jones. After a modestly productive college career, Jones was the biggest surprise of Gettleman's many surprising draft picks at sixth overall in 2019, nine spots ahead of Dwayne Haskins who many scouts preferred. But at least compared to the historically inefficient Haskins, Jones enjoyed a successful rookie season with middling 62% completion and 53.6 QBR rates. His league-leading 18 fumbles sabotaged his overall efficiency last year but do not erase the promise of his future years.
And while the Odell Beckham trade subtracted a young, talented receiver who could have helped Jones reach his potential, Gettleman has since added much more talent around his franchise quarterback. That starts on the offensive line. Left guard Will Hernandez has a standout 1.3% blown block rate in his two professional seasons. First- and third-round tackles Andrew Thomas and Matt Peart will hopefully slow the pass rush that had few problems beating big-money free agent Nate Solder (4.0% blown block rate) in 2019; Solder has opted out for 2020. And at receiver, fifth-round sophomore Darius Slayton might not replace Beckham, but his 9.6% DVOA rookie season showcased badly needed efficiency and field-stretching to complement a core of skill talent that otherwise does its best work near the line of scrimmage.
The Giants' budding defensive talent could take a hit pending the fallout of cornerback DeAndre Baker's criminal charges. Still, the team has several young assets on that side of the ball, especially at safety where Julian Love's outstanding substitute play in late 2019 leaves the team with an extra option at the position with Jabrill Peppers poised to return healthy and second-round steal Xavier McKinney poised to start immediately in his rookie season. 3. Arizona Cardinals
No team has made as dramatic a rise up the under-25 rankings as the Cardinals in recent seasons. The team had already finished in the bottom five of the rankings in 2017 and 2018 when they traded away three draft picks to move up and subsequently select quarterback bust Josh Rosen. GM Steve Keim and head coach Kliff Kingsbury deserve a ton of credit for understanding the concept of sunk costs and not letting a selection of a failed franchise quarterback set them back for multiple seasons. Instead, the Cardinals used the No. 1 pick that Rosen's poor play helped earn them on another franchise passer, Murray. His neutral rookie efficiency of a -3.1% DVOA and 55.7 QBR in 2019 puts him on a star trajectory, and his four remaining years of inexpensive team control put him on the short list of most valuable assets in football.
Veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins was too good of a trade value for the Cardinals pass up. But while he might slow down the development of the team's younger receivers, their talent remains a boon for the team. Christian Kirk has enjoyed the most success to date with more than 100 catches on near-neutral efficiency in his two seasons. But Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler offer major promise as well just a year removed from their second- and fourth-round draft selections and with standout Playmaker Scores that bode well for their potential to bounce back from disappointing rookie seasons.
The Cardinals make their ranking case with top-end talent rather than volume. They only had one draft pick in the first two rounds of 2020, but they made it count with the selection of hybrid linebacker Isaiah Simmons in the top 10. Simmons is an outlier athlete whose size, speed and athleticism should allow him to match up with players from multiple offensive positions. He and blue-chip safety Budda Baker -- who trails only Jamal Adams at the position with 42 defeats the past two seasons -- are the perfect foundation for a modern, position-less defense. 4. Buffalo Bills
Bills GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott share division rival Bill Belichick's preference for stockpiling middle-tier veterans. And yet somehow, the Bills traded their first-round draft pick (and three total picks on net) for veteran receiver Stefon Diggs this offseason and still jumped two spots in the under-25 rankings.
That type of move can only happen when a team has unusual success with its smaller number of rookie additions, and the Bills nailed their four Day 1 and Day 2 draft selections from 2019. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is the clear blue-chip player of that bunch. His five sacks were twice as many as any other rookie defensive tackle. But right tackle Cody Ford, running back Devin Singletary, and tight end Dawson Knox all contributed in their rookie seasons as well. Singletary even finished top five among backs with 150 or more touches with a 23.3% broken tackle rate. He and bigger third-round rookie Zack Moss have a complementary skill set that should spur one of the league's best rushing attacks in 2020.
Of course, it's dual-threat quarterback Josh Allen who pushes the Bills' rushing offense from good to great. But he'll still have to progress as a passer to elevate the team into perennial playoff contention. His improvement from a -35.9% passing DVOA as a rookie to -11.8% as a sophomore is encouraging, but it leaves him behind the schedule that recent successful young quarterbacks have followed in their first two seasons.
If Allen can't make the leap, the Bills can still compete with an old-school, run-and-defense-oriented game plan. Middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds already has 31 career starts and a Pro Bowl selection at an age of 22, when most prospects are just entering the league. Despite his youth, Edmunds finished top 10 among qualified linebackers in both coverage success rate and yards per pass allowed in his sophomore season. And Day 2 selections from 2018 and 2020, Harrison Phillips and A.J. Epenesa, provide some youth for a pass rush whose key contributors apart from Oliver are all north of 30. 5. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers make the Cardinals look rich in draft capital. First-rounders Javon Kinlaw and Brandon Aiyuk were the 49ers' only selections in the first four rounds of the 2020 draft. And yet, the team made the Super Bowl well ahead of schedule, seeing their defensive core of former first-rounders blossom while several key members were still shy of 25 years old.
The team's defense became the second-best in football and second-best against the pass thanks to consistent pressure from a front four that rarely had help from a blitzer -- their 78.6% rate of four pass-rushers was third-highest in football. Nick Bosa is a major part of that success and the team's defensive star. As a rookie in 2019, he finished third in football with 62 hurries. However, the team also saw pressure from its defensive tackles, which is why the explosive Kinlaw was a perfect team fit and a critical piece to replace the traded DeForest Buckner. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are both young starters at linebacker. Warner has not received the same recognition as the Bills' Edmunds and Colts' Darius Leonard, but he is a member of their class of three-down superstar. His 67% coverage success rate in 2019 was better than those contemporaries and fourth-best among qualifiers at his position. Meanwhile, cornerback Emmanuel Moseley provided his own excellent 62% coverage success rate and allowed just 6.3 yards per pass as a part-time player in 2019. A promotion to starter in 2020 could eliminate the one hole the 49ers defense suffered last season.
By and large, the 49ers have an older offense, even if quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have the number of career starts one would expect of a 28-year-old. Sixth-round left tackle Justin Skule helped enable Garoppolo's breakout season with a 3.3% blown block rate, much better than the team could have hoped for from their Day 3 rookie. At the skill positions, the 49ers thrive with speed and tackle-breaking that realize head coach Kyle Shanahan's desire for yards after the catch. Deebo Samuel finished third among heavily targeted wide receivers with 8.3 average yards after the catch in his rookie season. And with Samuel likely hurt to start this season, rookie Aiyuk and Jalen Hurd -- a former college running back -- can replace that production with their similar skill sets.
Lost in an anemic offense without normal quarterback starter Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers' defense matured into a top-three unit against both the run and the pass despite key members being under 25 and inexperienced. Star pass-rusher T.J. Watt missed the cutoff for these rankings, but 2019 first-rounder Devin Bush started 15 games as a rookie, called the defensive plays from his middle linebacker position, and justified his three-down role with a 60% coverage success rate. If he can make just modest improvements to his 18.3% broken tackle rate, he'll deserve Pro Bowl consideration.
With five interceptions and both an interception return and a fumble recovery return for a touchdown in 2019, in-season trade acquisition Minkah Fitzpatrick was at the center of the Steelers' unsustainable turnover luck; they ended 19.0% of their opponents' drives with a turnover, 1.7% more frequently than even the Patriots in second place. Still, there's no doubt that Fitzpatrick is a blue-chip player and, at 23 years old and with three years left on his rookie contract, well worth the first-round pick the team traded for him. The Steelers' own 2018 first-round safety, Terrell Edmunds has been less productive in his two seasons. But he did offer impressive totals of 41 run stops and 15 run defeats to counterbalance an uninspiring 46% coverage success rate. With Fitzpatrick behind him, Edmunds should be able to play as a de facto linebacker with confidence.
After standout rookie and sophomore seasons, JuJu Smith-Schuster can have a pass for a down 2019 season with dreadful quarterback play. Incredibly, he's still just 23 years old. Meanwhile, even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers continued to develop a reputation as wide receiver university. James Washington authored an efficient sophomore season with an 11.2% DVOA despite seeing just 10 of his 25 deep targets be catchable. One would figure those deep passes should be his specialty given his speed; his 21.25 mph top speed was the fastest at the 2018 Senior Bowl. Diontae Johnson led the team with 92 targets and 59 receptions in his rookie season. And second-round rookie Chase Claypool has the size at 6-foot-4 and 238 pounds and physicality to round out a receiving corps with the necessary attributes to target any kind of defensive weakness. They even added a speedy, receiving-capable fourth-round running back in Anthony McFarland to complement the still-young power back Benny Snell if often-injured veteran James Conner is unable to withstand his presumed three-down workload in 2020. 7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite his sixth-round draft selection, Gardner Minshew finished second among the regular rookie quarterbacks with a -5.0% passing DVOA, just behind top overall pick and rookie of the year Kyler Murray (-3.1%) and comfortably ahead of Daniel Jones (-19.2%) and Dwayne Haskins (-42.0%). Even first-round quarterbacks provide their teams with incredible bargains on their rookie deals. If Minshew can build on his rookie season, then the Jaguars will have the rare luxury of cap flexibility to build a veteran team than can compete for the next three seasons no matter their other cost-controlled young talent.
That said, the Jaguars already have other young talent. On offense, Minshew found great chemistry with second-year, second-round receiver DJ Chark, who more than quintupled his rookie production with 73 catches and 1,008 yards in his sophomore season and was efficient overall (1.9% DVOA) and in the red zone (eight touchdowns on just 12 end zone targets). Second-round rookie Laviska Shenault has similar versatility -- he rotated through all three receiver positions at Colorado and even took 42 carries in three seasons there -- and can elevate the team's underrated core of skill talent to one of the best in football. And they'll have help from bookend tackles Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor, who have impressed with 31 and 16 respective starts at just 24 and 22 years old even if their 4.1% and 3.0% blown block rates from 2019 leave room for improvement.
The Jaguars' defense fell from sixth in DVOA in 2018 to 29th in 2019 and sabotaged the efforts of an unexpectedly decent offense to make a playoff push in the AFC South. But despite their recent inefficiency and several trades over the past 12 months, the defense has even more young talent than the offense. Defensive end Josh Allen finished second among rookies to Nick Bosa with 29 hurries and first with 10.5 sacks and made the Pro Bowl. He'll have a new pass-rushing mate in second-round rookie K'Lavon Chaisson to replace the traded Calais Campbell. Top 10 pick CJ Henderson will have his own big shoes to fill as the effective replacement for former cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Henderson has the size and athleticism to do so, and he'll have help from Tre Herndon and fourth-round rookie Josiah Scott. Herndon might have a lesser pedigree than his 2020 rookie teammates, but he produced a solid 52% coverage success rate over 14 starts in his sophomore NFL season. Even accomplished run-stuffing safety Ronnie Harrison excelled in coverage in 2019 with a 63% coverage success rate. The team will have to hope that young secondary can make up for some of the coverage limitations their linebackers have shown in recent seasons.
With an older sophomore quarterback who turned 25 in April, the Browns were poised to fall from their perch of the top spot in last year's under-25 rankings even if the team had matched their lofty expectations in 2019. They didn't do that, and so this year, they fell to eighth.
Even without Baker Mayfield, the Browns have enviable top-endtalent. Defensive end Myles Garrett reached 20 hurries and 10 sacks for the second straight season even though his fight with Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph earned him a suspension for the Browns' final six games. Cornerback Denzel Ward provided a top-10 63% coverage success rate after he returned from a hamstring injury that cost him most of October. And running back Nick Chubb broke 74 tackles, the second most in football. But that trio couldn't keep the Browns in the top five because of their proximity to expensive second contracts. Garrett already signed his this offseason. Ward and Chubb become unrestricted free agents in 2023 and 2022, respectively.
So far, the Browns have not replenished their young asset coffers, but several players offer that potential. 2019 second-rounder Greedy Williams had less success in dealing with his hamstring injury than his teammate Ward, but a poor 46% coverage success rate as a rookie hardly erases his potential. 2020 second-rounder Grant Delpit could round out a young and talented secondary as a Day 1 free safety starter. And with a 22.6% broken tackle rate as a rookie, linebacker Mack Wilson came close to veteran Joe Schobert (17.5%) and might provide a more seamless transition as the new 2020 starter than many would expect of a fifth-round sophomore. Meanwhile, the Browns had three draft picks in the value sweet-spot range between 88th and 115th overall in 2020. Linebacker Jacob Phillips looks like the only immediate starter of that group -- which also includes defensive tackle Jordan Elliott and tight end Harrison Bryant -- but all three could find significant roles within a year. 9. Houston Texans
The Texans and the team that follows them would be much higher in these rankings if we still relied on our original methodology that graded on talent independent of contract situation. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has already checked every box needed to be a true franchise passer, setting a baseline of exceptional efficiency with a 9.5% DVOA and 63.8 QBR or better in all three of his professional seasons and authoring a comeback playoff win over the Bills after trailing by 16 points. There are few holes to poke in Watson's game, but his cap hits escalate to $4.4 million this year and $17.5 million next year, after which he will almost certainly command the second-highest contract in the sport. The Texans will happily pay him that money, but it will do the team no favors in the under-25 talent rankings
Counterintuitively, Watson justifies the Texans' top-10 under-25 ranking by continuing their success while GM Bill O'Brien seems dedicated to trading away their other talent and draft capital. Trades left the Texans with just five total under-25 players and no first-round draft picks in the 2020 draft. Day 2 front-seven additions Ross Blacklock and Jonathan Greenard will hopefully boost a pass rush that slipped to a bottom-six 5.2% adjusted sack rate in 2019. But Max Scharping and Tytus Howard couldn't pull the team's pass protection out of its similar and consistent bottom-six adjusted sack ranking on offense despite decent 2.1% and 3.6% blown block rates over 14 and eight starts, respectively, in their rookie seasons. Watson had veteran receiver DeAndre Hopkins as a safety blanket in his first three seasons when he finished in the top 10 in DVOA under pressure. It might be harder for him to thrive in that chaos in 2020 with a receiving corps full of field-stretching targets. Meanwhile, safety Justin Reid is the team's only other young asset with any real NFL success to date; he finished top 20 in 2019 among qualified safeties with a 58% coverage success rate
With Watson set to turn 25 during the season and without a 2021 draft pick in the first two rounds, the Texans could be on the precipice of a major falloff in next year's rankings. 10. Kansas City Chiefs
A 10th-place ranking might be too low for even a one-man band of under-25 talent because that one man is 2018 regular-season and 2019 Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes. On the field, Mahomes can play every instrument. He has finished in the top three in passing DVOA and QBR in his two seasons as a starter and in the top two in passing DYAR despite missing two games in 2019 with a knee injury. He overcame 24-point, 10-point, and 10-point deficits in his three playoff wins last season. His case as the best quarterback in football is unimpeachable, but his value relative to contract took a hit this offseason when he signed an extension with $141.5 million in guaranteed money. Suddenly, Mahomes' 2020 season is his last with a cap hit shy of $24.8 million. That might not drastically affect the Chiefs' overall competitiveness, but it does affect their standing in the under-25 rankings
As makes sense for a team firmly in its Super Bowl window, the Chiefs fill the bulk of their starting lineup with veterans. Their two most promising young skill players, 2019 second-rounder Mecole Hardman and 2020 first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire, might not even start behind capable veterans like Sammy Watkins and Darrel Williams -- although the latter's chances improved when Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season. That said, there is little doubt that Hardman and Edwards-Helaire are perfect fits for Mahomes and this Chiefs team. Hardman ran a 4.33-second 40 time that nearly equaled the 4.29-second time of teammate and former track star Tyreek Hill. And Edwards-Helaire was the premiere receiving back in this year's draft class, catching 55 passes for 453 yards in his 2019 junior season at LSU
Third-year cornerback Charvarius Ward is a definite 2020 starter and after a 2019 season with a 65% coverage success rate, he is the closest the Chiefs come to an under-25, blue-chip asset alongside Mahomes. Ward's second-half efficiency decline disqualified him for that distinction this year. Safety Juan Thornhill and defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi will likely start, as well, and their respective 56% coverage success and 65% run stop rates from 2019 justify those roles. Beyond that threesome, the Chiefs are down to 2020 Day 2 and Day 3 draft selections in linebacker Willie Gay, tackle Lucas Niang, and safety L'Jarius Sneed when it comes to notable under-25 talent. In the short term, the Chiefs don't need more young talent. But after Mahomes' contract extension kicks in, the cost savings of starters on rookie contracts will become more and more important.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Ranking all 32 NFL teams by their under-25 talent for 2020 🏈
4. Buffalo Bills
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. Houston Texans
10. Kansas City Chiefs
Reply With Quote
