[stevenash]

I'm going to do it this way this season.
This thread will be a season long thread where I'll jot down my notes/thought/ etc...

I will make all my posted plays in the MLB sub forum though.

I have a couple of leans on tonight's two games but nothing worth playing (If I do play them it'll be small)
But here's my thoughts.

If I were to bet a side in the NYY game it'll be NYY +120 -1.5 on the run line. (and +120 is getting hard to find now)
Yanks start a better line up and if you get right down to it both starters being equal elite aces.
Since NY is guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, the run line would be the play if I were playing it.
However I can see an argument if you like Max and the Nats at around +150 also. ( I see NYY are getting a lot of action just four hours ago that line was -135/+125)

Dodgers should handle the Giants in the late game however I'm not laying -290 or whatever the inflated.
Kershaw has regressed, yes, but he's still a staff and league ace not to mention he's still a quality starter.
SF's Cueto is five years removed from his post season heroics and quite frankly the feeling here he's pretty much finished.

I don't lay 3:1 on any regular season baseball game, and I can't make one singular case to back the Giants so I'm passing on the side.

If I were to wager this game it'll probably be on LA over 2.5 runs scored in the first five innings as their lineup is deep and should handle the washed up veteran Cueto.


Now as far as prop bets are concerned there are a lot I like and I narrowed them to my best three.
I feel the offensive numbers the books are hanging are too high and it's of my opinion there's a lot of value in some unders.

This is how I approached it, doesn't mean I'm right, doesn't mean I am wrong, it means this is my thinking.

This is a 60 game season, not 162 games.
So I did some prorating.
60 games is a little more than a third of a full season (.370 to be precise) or 2.7 times the number hung.
For instance the prop bet for the most home runs hit by any player is 20 total.
20 x 2.7 would be 54 if there would be a full season of games.

This is a screen shot of my top three season props.

Ticket	Accepted Date	To Risk	To Win	Status	Wager
640663551-1	7/22/2020 8:12:34 PM	$50.00	$70.00	Pending	7/23/2020 1:00:01 PM Props Baseball 20002 No player scores 49+ runs +140* vs Any player scores 49+ runs (Fixed Price)
640663551-2	7/22/2020 8:12:34 PM	$50.00	$78.00	Pending	7/23/2020 1:00:01 PM Props Baseball 20004 No player has 77+ hits +155* vs Any player has 77+ hits (Fixed Price)
640663551-3	7/22/2020 8:12:34 PM	$50.00	$80.00	Pending	7/23/2020 1:00:01 PM Props Baseball 20010 No player hits 20+ home runs +160* vs Any player hits 20+ home runs (Fixed Price)
		$150.00	$228.00

77 hits is much to high.
77 hits prorates into a 208 hit season.



Now as far as team futures go, I didn't wager any however my position on the Reds is well known by now on these boards as I feel they'll win the NL Central.

The real dark horse to keep an eye on are the Texas Rangers.
That Ranger staff with the addition of Kluber is pretty deep now.

				Power Rank	2020 PROJECTIONS
ROLE	POS	PLAYER	THR	Ovr	ERA	GS	IP	H	BB	SO
SP1	SP	Lance Lynn	R	11	3.97	12	71	66	25	78
SP2	SP	Mike Minor	L	29	4.47	12	76	74	23	71
SP3	SP	Corey Kluber	R	163	4	11	68	64	18	69
SP4	SP	Kyle Gibson	R	75	4.71	11	66	68	25	59
SP5	SP	Jordan Lyles	R	67	5.1	10	58	60	22	54

And Texas can hit some too.
Keep an eye out for them.


Projected Go-To Starting Lineup vs RHP▼

									ORIGINAL SIGNING INFO				Prospect Rank			Power Rank	2020 PROJECTIONS
ORDER	POS	#	PLAYER	BATS	AGE	HOW ACQUIRED	Options	MLB Service Time	Year	Team	Rd	Pick	Ovr Rank ('20)	Org Rank ('20)	Org Rank ('19)	Ovr	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	LF	17	Shin-Soo Choo	L	38.0	Free Agent (CIN) Dec'13	n/a	12.119	AUG 2000	SEA						63	220	7	4	.250	.353	.417
2	DH	5	Willie Calhoun	L	25.7	Trade (LAD) Jul'17	1	1.033	2015	LAD	4	132				192	192	9	1	.268	.327	.484
3	CF	38	Danny Santana	S	29.7	Free Agent (ATL) Jan'19	0	4.140	DEC 2007	MIN						91	210	8	7	.255	.297	.455
4	RF	13	Joey Gallo	L	26.7	Drafted 1st Rd (39) '12	1	3.103	2012	TEX	1	39				207	231	17	3	.221	.345	.538
5	2B	12	Rougned Odor	L	26.5	Amateur FA (VEN) Jan'11	n/a	5.121	JAN 2011	TEX						100	210	10	5	.232	.299	.451
6	1B	21	Todd Frazier	R	34.4	Free Agent (NYM) Jan'20	n/a	8.071	2007	CIN	1	34				142	197	9	1	.239	.325	.438
7	SS	1	Elvis Andrus	R	31.9	Trade (ATL) Jul'07	n/a	11.000	JAN 2005	ATL						81	238	5	8	.268	.315	.394
8	C	61	Robinson Chirinos	R	36.1	Free Agent (HOU) Jan'20	n/a	7.103	JUL 2000	CHC						186	137	5	0	.222	.328	.407
9	3B	9	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	R	25.3	Drafted 4th Rd '13	3	2.000	2013	TEX	4	130				370	176	2	3	.251	.313	.343

[MickeyMan]

Good luck this season nasher

[MinnesotaFats]

Wasnt Kershaw scatched?

[Hman]

GL this season

[jjgold]

Nashy You’re making it too complicated but best of luck to you this year

[pimike]

Good luck my friend.

[Buckandadime]

Look forward to reading your info this year..
Good luck Nasher..

[clockwise1965]

Gl Nash. I will have my eye on you

[Ratpack]

gl maybe we can checkout a game somewhere on post road when all this is over

[stevenash]

MLB Baseball			Run Line	Money Line	Total Runs	Team Total Runs
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Fri 7/24		951 Atlanta Braves M Soroka - R	+1½ -170+2½ -290-1½ +215-2½ +348+1 -122	+133 Listed	o7½ -105o7 -135o8 +115o6½ -170o8½ +133	o3½ +115	u3½ -135
4:10PM		952 New York Mets J deGrom - R	-1½ +150-2½ +245+1½ -255+2½ -435-1 +102	-143 Listed	u7½ -115u7 +115u8 -135u6½ +150u8½ -153	o3½ -120	u3½ +100
Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds
Fri 7/24		953 Detroit Tigers M Boyd - L	+1½ -125+2½ -195-1½ +250-2½ +420+1 +110	+148 Listed	o8½ -115o9 +110o8 -142o9½ +135o7½ -162	o3½ -105	u3½ -115
6:10PM		954 Cincinnati Reds S Gray - R	-1½ +105-2½ +168+1½ -300+2½ -535-1 -130	-158 Listed	u8½ -105u9 -130u8 +122u9½ -155u7½ +142	o4½ -120	u4½ +100
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Fri 7/24		955 Toronto Blue Jays H Ryu - L	+1½ -180+2½ -290-1½ +200-2½ +340+1 -132	+115 Listed	o7½ +100o7 -133o8 +121o6½ -168o8½ +140	o3½ +115	u3½ -135
6:40PM		956 Tampa Bay Rays C Morton - R	-1½ +158-2½ +245+1½ -240+2½ -425-1 +112	-125 Listed	u7½ -120u7 +113u8 -141u6½ +148u8½ -160	o3½ -120	u3½ +100
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Fri 7/24		957 Miami Marlins S Alcantara - R	+1½ -120+2½ -185-1½ +265-2½ +435+1 +120	+168 Listed	o9 -105o8½ -130o9½ +120o8 -153o10 +145	o3½ +100	u3½ -120
7:05PM		958 Philadelphia Phillies A Nola - R	-1½ +100-2½ +160+1½ -325+2½ -570-1 -140	-178 Listed	u9 -115u8½ +110u9½ -140u8 +133u10 -165	o4½ -130	u4½ +110
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Fri 7/24		959 Kansas City Royals D Duffy - L	+1½ -105+2½ -160-1½ +313-2½ +515+1 +142	+188 Listed	o9 +100o8½ -125o9½ +125o8 -145o10 +157	o3½ +110	u3½ -130
7:10PM		960 Cleveland Indians S Bieber - R	-1½ -115-2½ +140+1½ -375+2½ -730-1 -162	-205 Listed	u9 -120u8½ +105u9½ -145u8 +125u10 -178	o4½ -140	u4½ +120
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Fri 7/24		961 Milwaukee Brewers B Woodruff - R	+1½ -190+2½ -295-1½ +175-2½ +290+1 -144	+102 Listed	o8½ -120o9 +105o8 -140o9½ +130o7½ -160	o3½ -140	u3½ +120
7:10PM		962 Chicago Cubs K Hendricks - R	-1½ +165-2½ +248+1½ -210+2½ -350-1 +124	-112 Listed	u8½ +100u9 -125u8 +120u9½ -150u7½ +140	o4½ +110	u4½ -130
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Fri 7/24		963 Baltimore Orioles T Milone - L	+1½ +100+2½ -140-1½ +295-2½ +465+1 +145	+190 Listed	o10 -110o10½ +107o9½ -127o11 +138o9 -160	o3½ -135	u3½ +115
7:30PM		964 Boston Red Sox N Eovaldi - R	-1½ -120-2½ +120+1½ -355+2½ -630-1 -165	-210 Listed	u10 -110u10½ -127u9½ +107u11 -158u9 +140	o5½ -125	u5½ +105
Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers
Fri 7/24		965 Colorado Rockies G Marquez - R	+1½ -185+2½ -270-1½ +170-2½ +265+1 -143	+100 Listed	o8½ -120o9 +104o8 -142o9½ +129o7½ -162	o4½ +115	u4½ -135
8:05PM		966 Texas Rangers L Lynn - R	-1½ +160-2½ +230+1½ -200+2½ -325-1 +123	-110 Listed	u8½ +100u9 -124u8 +122u9½ -149u7½ +142	o4½ +105	u4½ -125
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Fri 7/24		967 Minnesota Twins J Berrios - R	-1½ +135-2½ +205+1½ -235+2½ -390-1 +108	-113 Listed	o9 +100o8½ -125o9½ +125o8 -145o10 +157	o4½ +115	u4½ -135
8:10PM		968 Chicago White Sox L Giolito - R	+1½ -155+2½ -245-1½ +195-2½ +320+1 -128	+103 Listed	u9 -120u8½ +105u9½ -145u8 +125u10 -178	o4½ +115	u4½ -135
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Fri 7/24		969 Pittsburgh Pirates J Musgrove - R	+1½ -125+2½ -180-1½ +265-2½ +435+1 +110	+154 Listed	o8 -120o7½ -135o8½ +100o7 -180o9 +135	o3½ +115	u3½ -135
8:15PM		970 St. Louis Cardinals J Flaherty - R	-1½ +105-2½ +158+1½ -325+2½ -570-1 -130	-164 Listed	u8 +100u7½ +115u8½ -120u7 +158u9 -155	o4½ -110	u4½ -110
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Fri 7/24		971 Seattle Mariners M Gonzales - L	+1½ +125+2½ -125-1½ +415-2½ +750+1 +191	+255 Listed	o8½ -115o8 -135o9 +110o7½ -155o9½ +138	o2½ -135	u2½ +115
9:10PM		972 Houston Astros J Verlander - R	-1½ -145-2½ +105+1½ -525+2½ -1165-1 -231	-280 Listed	u8½ -105u8 +115u9 -130u7½ +135u9½ -158	o5½ +110	u5½ -130
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Fri 7/24		973 Arizona Diamondbacks M Bumgarner - L	+1½ -175+2½ -270-1½ +190-2½ +300+1 -126	+123 Listed	o8½ -105o8 -123o9 +123o7½ -141o9½ +150	o3½ -125	u3½ +105
9:10PM		974 San Diego Padres C Paddack - R	-1½ +155-2½ +230+1½ -230+2½ -360-1 +106	-133 Listed	u8½ -115u8 +103u9 -143u7½ +121u9½ -170	o4½ +115	u4½ -135
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Fri 7/24		975 San Francisco Giants J Samardzija - R	+1½ +115+2½ -135-1½ +355-2½ +610+1 +169	+220 Listed	o9 -120o9½ +105o8½ -145o10 +125o8 -173	o3½ +110	u3½ -130
9:40PM		976 Los Angeles Dodgers R Stripling - R	-1½ -135-2½ +115+1½ -445+2½ -920-1 -197	-240 Listed	u9 +100u9½ -125u8½ +125u10 -145u8 +153	o5½ -105	u5½ -115
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Fri 7/24		977 Los Angeles Angels A Heaney - L	+1½ -160+2½ -250-1½ +195-2½ +310+1 -119	+126 Listed	o8½ -120o9 +105o8 -140o9½ +130o7½ -160	o3½ -130	u3½ +110
10:10PM		978 Oakland Athletics F Montas - R	-1½ +140-2½ +210+1½ -235+2½ -370-1 -101	-136 Listed	u8½ +100u9 -125u8 +120u9½ -150u7½ +140	o4½ +100	u4½ -120

Braves / Mets game is interesting.
You can make a case for the Braves at enticing +133 odds.
You can make a case for an elite top three starting pitcher with deGrom and the Mets.
But the price is a little high at -143.
Will get back to that.

Reds should rip Detroit today.
Reds hit lefties well last season and now with Castellanos and Moose in the middle of that Red lineup Cincy on paper should make Boyd (Det LHP starting pitcher) their personal meat puppet.
Moose and Castellanos destroyed LHP last season for a combined 20 HR.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ni...OF&season=2019
I don't like laying -158, I trust Sonny Gray in this spot (Cin. SP)
I may get creative and use the -158 in a two team parlay to cut down on that juice,

Rays look like a play at -125 with Morton over the Jays.
Quite frankly that lime looks a tad soft.
Rays are a sexy pick this season to make the playoffs, I do think their pitching staff is a top eight staff but a tad overrated however I think the Rays lineup is not as soft as people make them out to be either.
LHP Ryu makes the start for the Blue Jays, Tampa looks like a play so far at first glance.

Phillies should handle the Marlins with Nola, I don't like 9:5.
There's other plays that are better values today.
Passing though Philly should get the W.

KC at Cleveland.
I'm one of the boards biggest KC fans and I do love the Duff Man (KC LHP)
Now having said that, I'm putting my heart aside as I can't bet my beloved Royals here.
Plus KC lost the heart of their power (Dozier) due to COVID and that really weakens the bottom half of their order.
Cleveland starts hot shot Beiber and is -205 for a reason.
This game is unbettable to me as the Indians start the better pitcher and sport the better lineup.
I don't lay -205, would love to see a KC win though.
Pass
p.s. the more I look at this Indian roster the more I think they can win the AL Central.

Passing on the Brewer/Cub game.
The game is a pick 'em and that's because it is.
It's a coin toss.
I do think Woodruff makes positive strides this season as staff ace for the Brewers and is a pitcher to keep an eye on.
Very slight lean with the Brews here.


Passing on the Red Sox Fenway home opener today.
Balty is trash, Sox hit lefties well (Baltimore starts Milone)
Sox start 100 mph fireballer Eovaldi.
Over 8.5 may be the way to go here, Sox will get there's off of Milone, Eovaldi has a habit of leaving that fastball of his over the plate and the O's can hit a little.
I like the over here.

Speaking of overs this Rox/Ranger game wreaks of over 8.5
Both teams can mash (Gallo, Arenado, Story, etc. ) and both starters are very hittable.
Side is a 'pick and I can make a case for either side.
Over 8.5 or pass.

Twins/White Sox
This is the game I am most interested in today.
White Sox had a tremendous off season and are bona fide AL Central contenders.
So are the Twins (and Indians)
Sox start Giolito who has established himself as an AL top ten starter.
Twins start their ace Berrios who is nasty as well.
Twin lineup can mash, White Sox can hit a ton now as well.
Game is a pick.
Passing but it is the best game on the card today.

Passing on the Cards/Pirates game.
St. Louis is the play but not at -164

I'm not even going to spend time on the Astro game.
Verlander is -260 which he should be over the inferior Mariners but -260 is ridiculous even if it is an elite squad against pretty much an AAA team.

Diamondbacks at Padres is a very interesting game.
Both these teams will battle for the second spot in the NL West division.
Both are good squads.
'Zona starts Hall of Fame candidate Madison Bumgarner ( a lefty)
Padres start Paddox, a talented up an comer.
I can be enticed to bet 'Zona at +123 here.
I'll get back to this one.

Passing on the Giants/Dodgers.
SF showed me all I needed to know last night, and as suspected they are a very flawed team.
Not betting the pedestrian Dodger starter at -260 though.
Big, fat, pass.

Last game on the west coast.
Angels and A's.
A few think Oakland can pressure Houston for the AL West title.
They can if their starting pitching delivers, as Oakland can hit,
I would love to see the Angels make some noise, Trout is expected to play most of this shortened season, but even with Trout Angels aren't deep enough.
I would need a little more than +132 here to bet the Angels and Heaney.
Pass