I'm going to do it this way this season.
This thread will be a season long thread where I'll jot down my notes/thought/ etc...
I will make all my posted plays in the MLB sub forum though.
I have a couple of leans on tonight's two games but nothing worth playing (If I do play them it'll be small)
But here's my thoughts.
If I were to bet a side in the NYY game it'll be NYY +120 -1.5 on the run line. (and +120 is getting hard to find now)
Yanks start a better line up and if you get right down to it both starters being equal elite aces.
Since NY is guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, the run line would be the play if I were playing it.
However I can see an argument if you like Max and the Nats at around +150 also. ( I see NYY are getting a lot of action just four hours ago that line was -135/+125)
Dodgers should handle the Giants in the late game however I'm not laying -290 or whatever the inflated.
Kershaw has regressed, yes, but he's still a staff and league ace not to mention he's still a quality starter.
SF's Cueto is five years removed from his post season heroics and quite frankly the feeling here he's pretty much finished.
I don't lay 3:1 on any regular season baseball game, and I can't make one singular case to back the Giants so I'm passing on the side.
If I were to wager this game it'll probably be on LA over 2.5 runs scored in the first five innings as their lineup is deep and should handle the washed up veteran Cueto.
Now as far as prop bets are concerned there are a lot I like and I narrowed them to my best three.
I feel the offensive numbers the books are hanging are too high and it's of my opinion there's a lot of value in some unders.
This is how I approached it, doesn't mean I'm right, doesn't mean I am wrong, it means this is my thinking.
This is a 60 game season, not 162 games.
So I did some prorating.
60 games is a little more than a third of a full season (.370 to be precise) or 2.7 times the number hung.
For instance the prop bet for the most home runs hit by any player is 20 total.
20 x 2.7 would be 54 if there would be a full season of games.
This is a screen shot of my top three season props.
77 hits is much to high.
77 hits prorates into a 208 hit season.
Now as far as team futures go, I didn't wager any however my position on the Reds is well known by now on these boards as I feel they'll win the NL Central.
The real dark horse to keep an eye on are the Texas Rangers.
That Ranger staff with the addition of Kluber is pretty deep now.
And Texas can hit some too.
Keep an eye out for them.
Projected Go-To Starting Lineup vs RHP▼
This thread will be a season long thread where I'll jot down my notes/thought/ etc...
I will make all my posted plays in the MLB sub forum though.
I have a couple of leans on tonight's two games but nothing worth playing (If I do play them it'll be small)
But here's my thoughts.
If I were to bet a side in the NYY game it'll be NYY +120 -1.5 on the run line. (and +120 is getting hard to find now)
Yanks start a better line up and if you get right down to it both starters being equal elite aces.
Since NY is guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, the run line would be the play if I were playing it.
However I can see an argument if you like Max and the Nats at around +150 also. ( I see NYY are getting a lot of action just four hours ago that line was -135/+125)
Dodgers should handle the Giants in the late game however I'm not laying -290 or whatever the inflated.
Kershaw has regressed, yes, but he's still a staff and league ace not to mention he's still a quality starter.
SF's Cueto is five years removed from his post season heroics and quite frankly the feeling here he's pretty much finished.
I don't lay 3:1 on any regular season baseball game, and I can't make one singular case to back the Giants so I'm passing on the side.
If I were to wager this game it'll probably be on LA over 2.5 runs scored in the first five innings as their lineup is deep and should handle the washed up veteran Cueto.
Now as far as prop bets are concerned there are a lot I like and I narrowed them to my best three.
I feel the offensive numbers the books are hanging are too high and it's of my opinion there's a lot of value in some unders.
This is how I approached it, doesn't mean I'm right, doesn't mean I am wrong, it means this is my thinking.
This is a 60 game season, not 162 games.
So I did some prorating.
60 games is a little more than a third of a full season (.370 to be precise) or 2.7 times the number hung.
For instance the prop bet for the most home runs hit by any player is 20 total.
20 x 2.7 would be 54 if there would be a full season of games.
This is a screen shot of my top three season props.
| 640663551-1 | 7/22/2020 8:12:34 PM | $50.00 | $70.00 | Pending | 7/23/2020 1:00:01 PM Props Baseball 20002 No player scores 49+ runs +140* vs Any player scores 49+ runs (Fixed Price) | |||
| 640663551-2 | 7/22/2020 8:12:34 PM | $50.00 | $78.00 | Pending | 7/23/2020 1:00:01 PM Props Baseball 20004 No player has 77+ hits +155* vs Any player has 77+ hits (Fixed Price) | |||
| 640663551-3 | 7/22/2020 8:12:34 PM | $50.00 | $80.00 | Pending | 7/23/2020 1:00:01 PM Props Baseball 20010 No player hits 20+ home runs +160* vs Any player hits 20+ home runs (Fixed Price) | |||
| $150.00 | $228.00 |
|||||||
77 hits prorates into a 208 hit season.
Now as far as team futures go, I didn't wager any however my position on the Reds is well known by now on these boards as I feel they'll win the NL Central.
The real dark horse to keep an eye on are the Texas Rangers.
That Ranger staff with the addition of Kluber is pretty deep now.
| Power Rank | 2020 PROJECTIONS | |||||||||
| ROLE | POS | PLAYER | THR | Ovr | ERA | GS | IP | H | BB | SO |
| SP1 | SP | Lance Lynn | R | 11 | 3.97 | 12 | 71 | 66 | 25 | 78 |
| SP2 | SP | Mike Minor | L | 29 | 4.47 | 12 | 76 | 74 | 23 | 71 |
| SP3 | SP | Corey Kluber | R | 163 | 4 | 11 | 68 | 64 | 18 | 69 |
| SP4 | SP | Kyle Gibson | R | 75 | 4.71 | 11 | 66 | 68 | 25 | 59 |
| SP5 | SP | Jordan Lyles | R | 67 | 5.1 | 10 | 58 | 60 | 22 | 54 |
And Texas can hit some too.
Keep an eye out for them.
Projected Go-To Starting Lineup vs RHP▼
| 1 | LF | 17 | Shin-Soo Choo | L | 38.0 | Free Agent (CIN) Dec'13 | n/a | 12.119 | AUG 2000 | SEA | 63 | 220 | 7 | 4 | .250 | .353 | .417 | |||||
| 2 | DH | 5 | Willie Calhoun | L | 25.7 | Trade (LAD) Jul'17 | 1 | 1.033 | 2015 | LAD | 4 | 132 | 192 | 192 | 9 | 1 | .268 | .327 | .484 | |||
| 3 | CF | 38 | Danny Santana | S | 29.7 | Free Agent (ATL) Jan'19 | 0 | 4.140 | DEC 2007 | MIN | 91 | 210 | 8 | 7 | .255 | .297 | .455 | |||||
| 4 | RF | 13 | Joey Gallo | L | 26.7 | Drafted 1st Rd (39) '12 | 1 | 3.103 | 2012 | TEX | 1 | 39 | 207 | 231 | 17 | 3 | .221 | .345 | .538 | |||
| 5 | 2B | 12 | Rougned Odor | L | 26.5 | Amateur FA (VEN) Jan'11 | n/a | 5.121 | JAN 2011 | TEX | 100 | 210 | 10 | 5 | .232 | .299 | .451 | |||||
| 6 | 1B | 21 | Todd Frazier | R | 34.4 | Free Agent (NYM) Jan'20 | n/a | 8.071 | 2007 | CIN | 1 | 34 | 142 | 197 | 9 | 1 | .239 | .325 | .438 | |||
| 7 | SS | 1 | Elvis Andrus | R | 31.9 | Trade (ATL) Jul'07 | n/a | 11.000 | JAN 2005 | ATL | 81 | 238 | 5 | 8 | .268 | .315 | .394 | |||||
| 8 | C | 61 | Robinson Chirinos | R | 36.1 | Free Agent (HOU) Jan'20 | n/a | 7.103 | JUL 2000 | CHC | 186 | 137 | 5 | 0 | .222 | .328 | .407 | |||||
| 9 | 3B | 9 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | R | 25.3 | Drafted 4th Rd '13 | 3 | 2.000 | 2013 | TEX | 4 | 130 | 370 | 176 | 2 | 3 | .251 | .313 | .343 |
