[Hman]

Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Paul Felder vs. Dan Hooker

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The UFC heads back to sea level this week when it hosts a fight card in Auckland, New Zealand, the promotion's third trip to that country. It's a chance to spotlight regional talent, especially the local fighter in the main event, Dan Hooker.


The odds opened at nearly pick 'em prices for the main event but are starting to trend towards Hooker. We'll examine where the value falls, plus a pick from earlier on the fight card.


Prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, as of Thursday.

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Lightweight main event: No. 7 Dan Hooker (-155) vs. No. 6 Paul Felder (+125)

Tale Of The Tape

	DAN HOOKER	PAUL FELDER
Last Fight Weight Class	Lightweight	Lightweight
Current Age	30	35
Height	72	71
Reach	75	70.5
Stance	Switch	Orthodox
Analyzed Minutes	113	156
Standup striking offense
Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received)	7:1	3:1
Distance Knockdown Rate	5.0%	0.7%
Head Jab Accuracy	37%	18%
Head Power Accuracy	36%	25%
Total Standup Strike Ratio	1.0	1.2
Striking defense
Total Head Strike Defense	64%	68%
Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin")	100%	99%
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.10	0.09
Takedown Accuracy	33%	27%
Advances per Takedown/Top Control	1.0	1.7
Opponent Takedown Attempts	56	47
Takedown Defense	79%	60%
Share of Total Ground Time in Control	52%	43%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.20	0.14

The home cage fighter, Hooker, will also hold several tale-of-the-tape edges, with significant age and reach advantages, plus an ability to switch stances during long-range striking. Interestingly, he does this while maintaining highly accurate striking and knocking opponents down at an above average pace. His standup is offensively superior on paper to that of Felder, except that Hooker's head strike defense is further below average than Felder's.


Neither attempts many takedowns, and both have below average takedown success rates. Combine that with decent takedown defense for Felder and above average defense for Hooker, and we're likely to see a mostly stand-up striking affair.


Should that happen, it's worth noting that both men have loose defense overall. So Hooker's long range and youth could help his durability, while his accuracy could outpoint rounds on the judges' cards. Felder is notoriously tough, but this is an uphill climb for him, and at nearly even odds it is not worth an underdog play.


E+ recommends: ML play on Hooker.

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Other fight card values

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+200) vs. Yan Xiaonan (-250)


Yan is the first Chinese female to be signed by the UFC. Despite a 4-0 UFC record, Yan is still on the outside of the strawweight rankings. Her opponent, Kowalkiewicz, is ranked 14th, making this fight one that could finally put Yan into the ranks. Meanwhile, Kowalkiewicz is on a three-fight slide, although admittedly her losses have come only to highly ranked talent. She'll be the litmus test for the Chinese fighter. The market likes Yan's chances, making her north of a 2-to-1 favorite. The numbers appear to agree, favoring her precision and pace in a fight that is unlikely to go to the ground or see any knockout threats. We're discounting slightly given the talent differential, but still leaning toward the favorite.


E+ recommends: Over 2.5 rounds. Money-line lean on Yan if close to -200 or cheaper.

[jjgold]

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