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NFL wild-card weekend: Coming off loss, Patriots offer betting value 🏈
NFL wild-card weekend: Coming off loss, Patriots offer betting value
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After 17 weeks of action, the playoffs are finally upon us. Here's an early look at where the betting value lies in the wild-card weekend matchups.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3, 42.5)
My projections in this matchup are Texans -3.4 with a total of 44.6. I likely won't be getting involved at the current numbers, but it's going to be important to take note of J.J. Watt's status with rumors that he may try to make a return to the field for this wild-card matchup. The Texans' rush defense plummeted after he was injured, allowing 144.1 yards per game on the ground without him.
The Bills can attack efficiently in the run game and ranked sixth in the NFL in success rate. Josh Allen added 510 yards on the ground to go with a league-leading nine touchdowns from the quarterback position.
Betting analysis: Watt's return would be significant for Houston, assuming he is near 100%, and with the market as a whole trending toward -2.5, I would likely start looking at the Texans side if Watt is a go.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-4.5, 43.5)
Thanks to a Patriots home loss to the Dolphins in Week 17, we get a discounted price on New England in this wild-card game. My projections against the Titans are -6.9 with a total of 44.5. The Tennessee love since Ryan Tannehill took over has been wild. I still look at the Titans' résumé and ask myself, what have they really done? They beat the backups in Houston in Week 17, but they lost to the Saints and the Houston starters at home the two weeks prior to that. Wins over the Raiders, Colts and Jaguars wound up being against teams that were all losing their way down the stretch. The only truly impressive win was their 35-32 victory against the Chiefs, but even that required some late-game magic and the Tennessee defense allowed 530 yards.
Betting analysis: I was surprised to see the market come down off of -5.5 and even hit -4 at a few shops on Monday, and it's a buy for me at that price on the Patriots.
Verdict: Patriots if -4 is available.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-8, 48.5)
Is it finally the year the late-game playoff craziness breaks the Saints' way? The numbers say they shouldn't have much to worry about in wild-card weekend. My projections make the Saints -8 with a total of 50.
Betting analysis: I don't show much of an edge betting either the side or the total straight up, but taking New Orleans down to -2 or -1.5 (there are some -7.5s in the market) as a six-point teaser leg cuts through the key numbers as a profitable long-term teaser play.
Verdict: Saints in a teaser.
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 46) at Philadelphia Eagles
My numbers say the wrong team is favored, and considering I have the Eagles -2.1 and we can get them up to +7.5 as a six-point teaser leg with the Saints, I gobbled up as much as I was able to early in the week.
The Eagles defense is fairly underrated. They graded No. 4 in adjusted success rate this season and specifically ranked No. 2 against the run. We know the Seahawks like to pound the ball on the ground (even despite the injuries they've suffered in the backfield), and it plays into what the Eagles do best.
Betting analysis: I trust Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz to keep this close in a home wild-card game against a defense that finished 29th in success rate (only the Dolphins, Raiders and Bengals ranked worse).
Verdict: Eagles in a teaser.
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Originally Posted by jjgold
