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Nasher likes the Jaguars +3 today over the Buccaneers today
Trust me I've looked at this game every which way for an hour and the more I look at it the more I really like the home dog here and this is why.
First and foremost as a pro football fan I have no rooting interest whatsoever in both there teams which is good because it doesn't influence my choice one way or another and I can handicap it with a level head.
I also like the fact this game is getting overlooked by both sharps and squares alike as there are at least six higher profile games today bettors are looking at.
When I handicap NBA or NFL games it's important for me to look at the matchups, in my opinion it's (all about a few things) but it's all about the matchups too.
Nick Foles has a dream matchup passing wise as the Bucs are God awful regarding pass defense. Tampa is dead last or next to dead last in pass defense, they give up 290 passing yards a game and allow almost 31 points per game.
This is Foles third fame back from a 10 week injury and while it's true the Jags have lost the previous two starts I'm dismissing those losses as Foles needs a little time to get rid of the ring rust, this is the game he puts it all together.
Like I mentioned he gets an extremely soft pass defense, he's proven to be a good NFL QB on a high level, and even though the Jax receivers are not household names they are all developing into good ones.
Look at WR DJ Chark, he's received 8 TD passes so far this season, averages 76 yards per game ,very dependable and extremely secure when handing the football. Foles loves too look his way.
WR2 DeDe Westbrook is also developing into a nice receiver, so is Conley.
What Tampa does very well is defend the rush, however Fournette the Jax feature back is not a traditional north/south bull ahead straight rusher he's a hybrid like Matt Forte was and McCaffrey is or Bell he catches ball out of the backfield very well which make him a hybrid back so even though the Bucs have a high rush defense rating this doesn't overly concern me.
Winston and Tampa Bay's offense is pass first and run second and Winston does have two high octane wide outs in Evans and Goodwin what Jax does on defense on a high level is defend the pass Evans and Goodwin are going to have their hands full. Jacksonville is flawed in the run defense department and Tampa just doesn't have a running attack, their RB1 Jones does not scare me one bit so even though Jax has trouble stopping the run I am not overly concerned.
Look at the points Tampa has given up their last four games (22, 34, 27, and 40) like I said they give up over 30 points a game on the average I expect Foles and his offense to match that 31 today.
Like I mentioned I really like the favorable matchups Jax has here today.
I also like home dogs too.
One last item there is no dissention in the Jax locker room I was reading this week from the NFL insiders, Marrone likes Foles over the kid, he's standing by Foles and the team likes him too.
There's a few ways I considered betting this , Jax TT over 21.5 Over 43.5 Fournette over 67.5 rush yards, I think the traditional way to go is the best way to go.
Jags +3 -105 (reduced juice 5Dimes) please.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record here I hit my over 45 Wisconsin/Minnesota play yesterday making me 12-1 in my last 13 plays (all verifiable as you guys know) so tail at your own risk I can not keep this up, I just can't. (or can I?)
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Originally Posted by Mr KLC
