Navy getting respect from the line makers.

[stevenash]

Navy +8 is the early line against Notre Dame in South Bend.
I was expecting 10.5 or so.

[jjgold]

Does navy have any good wins

[Tanko]

It opened at 10 and dropped to 8 quickly...

[mpaschal34]

I would expect Navy to lose by 10-14 points here.

[Tanko]

Navy 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS and they barely lost the one ATS against tulane.
ND 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS.

Best tms played in last 5 are Air Force and Tulane. Won both. Covered AF.

With exception of Tulane game, Navy has been covering with ease and Tulane game was close (-5 spread, won by 3).
ND crushed Duke but prior to that (recent games) not covering.

[Tanko]

I think Navy is close to being on performance par with USC lately.
ND did not cover the USC game (won by 3 but spread was -10).

I think it will be closer to the 8-10 range with Navy.
Not selecting Navy, yet.... Just pointing out info.

[stevenash]

Does navy have any good wins

Versus top 25 teams? No.
Their only loss was to conference leader Memphis (8-1) and that was close 35-23.
Memphis only loss was to Temple.

Navy is now 24th ranke (7-1) Sagarin has them at 28.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Their strength of schedule is 97th (out of 257 D1 teams)
Their best wins are Tulane (that was a nice win) and does USF count? They beat them 35-3 if South Florida counts as a good win.

+8 is a tough number and I come from a Navy family, I'd bet it right now if I could get +11, +8? Lets see how this line moves this week. No total posted yet.

[mpaschal34]

Navy also did not cover against Memphis at +10.5. They were winning at the half by 6 but got spanked in the second half. Of course, this was my largest bet on Navy this year.

[USCPHILLYGUY]

8 in NJ as well.

[BigdaddyQH]

Navy has a long history of giving Notre Dame fits at home. They are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 games at Notre Dame Stadium. This wager has been a staple for Sharps for years. I do not think this line will drop much more. It could go up a bit. You might want to hold off for a bit before taking the Middies.

[stevenash]

Navy has a long history of giving Notre Dame fits at home. It could go up a bit. You might want to hold off for a bit before taking the Middies.

This is very true.
I am holding out for double digits +10 or better, but I think I may be waiting all week.

[2daBank]

Navy +8 is the early line against Notre Dame in South Bend.
I was expecting 10.5 or so.

The look ahead just 2-3 weeks ago was freaking 20!! I thought for sure we would get dd’s, what a bummer. Irish want no part of this game but shit I was hoping for a more favorable line.

[2daBank]

Irish in November when out of playoff consideration generally not a good bet. Thought line was way short last week tho so jumping off that trend and didn’t fade after the easy cash with Vatech.

I can’t see ND interested in fighting thru cut blocks all day. Really wish we were getting more tho.

[Jayson25]

They should get respect , they are 7-1 and Notre Dame is the same old Notre Dame. Overrated and already proven not to be that good. If anything that -8 is monsterous. Beating Duke isn't a accomplishment , this isn't basketball and the ACC is the worse this year on the gridiron.

[stevenash]

Irish in November when out of playoff consideration generally not a good bet. Thought line was way short last week tho so jumping off that trend and didn’t fade after the easy cash with Vatech.

I can’t see ND interested in fighting thru cut blocks all day. Really wish we were getting more tho.

Jeff Sagarin had this line last week at -13.5
Sagarin give ND home field advantage 4.0 points, factored in he's got this game at -11 which I think is spot on perfect.

I refer to Jeff Sagarin a lot, for those unfamiliar he's a sports statistician by trade with an advanced degree in mathematics from MIT.
He's created the ELO rating system amongst others. Las Vegas books and line makers utilizes his services often.
I'm a geek, he's a super geek, he's the geek us geeks look up to when it comes to sports statistics.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

[2daBank]

They should get respect , they are 7-1 and Notre Dame is the same old Notre Dame. Overrated and already proven not to be that good. If anything that -8 is monsterous. Beating Duke isn't a accomplishment , this isn't basketball and the ACC is the worse this year on the gridiron.

It isn’t basketball therefore Irish are not in the acc bud. They remain independent football program, only hoops and I dunno or care bout other sports are conf affiliated.

[stevenash]

It isn’t basketball therefore Irish are not in the acc bud. They remain independent football program, only hoops and I dunno or care bout other sports are conf affiliated.

I love 'ya Banker but I'm going to step in here and defend Jayson.
I think he was referring to Duke and ACC football, but what do I know I just took my meds I'll be ok in 20 mins.

[Otters27]

Navy Rock Solid

[2daBank]

I love 'ya Banker but I'm going to step in here and defend Jayson.
I think he was referring to Duke and ACC football, but what do I know I just took my meds I'll be ok in 20 mins.

Ah, I might have misread. Not like I was rude tho so it ok. Lol.

[GOIRISH]

Navy moneyline for me

[Da Manster!]

Jeff Sagarin had this line last week at -13.5
Sagarin give ND home field advantage 4.0 points, factored in he's got this game at -11 which I think is spot on perfect.

I refer to Jeff Sagarin a lot, for those unfamiliar he's a sports statistician by trade with an advanced degree in mathematics from MIT.
He's created the ELO rating system amongst others. Las Vegas books and line makers utilizes his services often.
I'm a geek, he's a super geek, he's the geek us geeks look up to when it comes to sports statistics.


http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

he's kind of like the George Washington of nerds, right?!...

[stevenash]

he's kind of like the George Washington of nerds, right?!...

Actually Richard Dunkel Sr. (funny name Dick Dunkel) is the George Washington of nerds.

He created the Dunkel index 90 years ago using pencil and index cards. Ask a kid today what an index card is they look at you like you have three heads. Dick Dunkel Sr. was the first to develop a ratings system for college football. As a kid in HS I remember looking at the Dunkel Index in the Newark Star Ledger that published it in the sports page, this is what HS geeks that love sports do.

His kid Dick Jr (naturally) brought his dads index to the world wide web.
Junior's kids the third generation of Dunkel's still maintain the Dunkel website.

Here's the thing when I was in HS the Dunkel Index was considered the go to source, but the kids really haven't developed it much since taking it to the internet where as Sagarin is always fine tuning his methods. Sagarin is a genius he's a world class chess player too.

[Jayson25]

Yessir. Thanks Mr.Nash for correcting banker, I know nd is dependent. I am glad someone got it. And banker I don't care if u were rude or not. Doesn't matter. I know what I was saying and it made perfect sense.

[stevenash]

Yessir. Thanks Mr.Nash for correcting banker, I know nd is dependent. I am glad someone got it. And banker I don't care if u were rude or not. Doesn't matter. I know what I was saying and it made perfect sense.

Banker is solid people, as good as it gets.
He said he misread you, everything is good. (Your pal Nasher just took his meds, believe me all is good.)

[shocka1212]

Does navy have any good wins

I've made some nice $$ on them this year.

[2daBank]

Yessir. Thanks Mr.Nash for correcting banker, I know nd is dependent. I am glad someone got it. And banker I don't care if u were rude or not. Doesn't matter. I know what I was saying and it made perfect sense.

Doesn’t matter if I was rude? That seems wrong, I admitted I misread. Wasn’t like I was a dick about it so give me a break.

[Jayson25]

loL!!! Thanks nasher! Thanks banker! I appreciate it. We r good. I would never take this stuff in here personal. We r All just trying to help each other out. U guys r all my brothers and I would love to see each one of us get paid off of this gambling game. Let's see how this 5 pack goes Tonite :. Niners -6. Niners under. Pistons. Mavs. Pelicans. Really feeling the niners and Mavs. Let's get it guys! If anybody has anything for me that could help me please let me know. I am about to go out to the local sportsbook here in pa shortly. Love this shit! Finally have Vegas in my backyard! Been a great year since it opened!

[jjgold]

The play would probably be navy if it was 10

[JayDr3am]

Navy has a long history of giving Notre Dame fits at home. They are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 games at Notre Dame Stadium. This wager has been a staple for Sharps for years. I do not think this line will drop much more. It could go up a bit. You might want to hold off for a bit before taking the Middies.

QH you didnt even know bama was -5.5 -110 last weekend. stop giving people advice

[JayDr3am]

smh

[2daBank]

loL!!! Thanks nasher! Thanks banker! I appreciate it. We r good. I would never take this stuff in here personal. We r All just trying to help each other out. U guys r all my brothers and I would love to see each one of us get paid off of this gambling game. Let's see how this 5 pack goes Tonite :. Niners -6. Niners under. Pistons. Mavs. Pelicans. Really feeling the niners and Mavs. Let's get it guys! If anybody has anything for me that could help me please let me know. I am about to go out to the local sportsbook here in pa shortly. Love this shit! Finally have Vegas in my backyard! Been a great year since it opened!

I don’t like the MNF under but we discussed in the other thread. Gl tonight

[funnyb25]

Navy is tough to bet against as decent sized dogs. They can keep the ball an entire quarter which makes covering tough for the opposition.

[2daBank]

Navy is tough to bet against as decent sized dogs. They can keep the ball an entire quarter which makes covering tough for the opposition.

Irish schedule kinda brutal too, maybe not far as some the opponents but seems like every team they facing has a bye before playing them. That pretty damn tough walking into every game when opponent is fresher and had a extra week to prepare!!!

The injury list of both these teams is hilarious. Irish list is long, navy has like 1 guy on theirs!! Throw in the fact Irish gonna have guys cut blocking their legs all day and think it sets up as a game that really gonna test their want too!!!! I would have really loved to get way closer to where the look ahead was on this just 2/3 weeks ago but honestly think navy might just pull the upset.

[Da Manster!]

funny how gambling and line movements work in this beloved hobby of ours...the line opened up at Notre Dame (-9.5 or -10) and quickly got pounded down to (-8) within a 24 hour span...now it's back up to 9.5 again at most shops!...obviously, there's plenty of action on both sides and this how the house wins...

[GOIRISH]

It’s going to be 30 degrees in south bend Saturday. Ian book is an ok qb and people on Irish forums already want the 2nd stringer with how poor books reads are. Any pressure and he starts running and makes poor throws. Irish defense is banged up and just lost a leading tackler. Navy is a good team and will have the ball a majority of the game. Notre dames best hope is chase claypool who’s nfl bound. The Irish run game isn’t great. This game will 100% result in my liver failure.