[Renegades]

Navy also did not cover against Memphis at +10.5. They were winning at the half by 6 but got spanked in the second half. Of course, this was my largest bet on Navy this year.

Me too and Im still pissed about that game. Navy outplayed them for 3 quarters. If they played now Navy would win

[Renegades]

The 3rd and 15 where Memphis caught it and took it to the house to cover still haunts me

[gojetsgomoxies]

Jeff Sagarin had this line last week at -13.5
Sagarin give ND home field advantage 4.0 points, factored in he's got this game at -11 which I think is spot on perfect.

I refer to Jeff Sagarin a lot, for those unfamiliar he's a sports statistician by trade with an advanced degree in mathematics from MIT.
He's created the ELO rating system amongst others. Las Vegas books and line makers utilizes his services often.
I'm a geek, he's a super geek, he's the geek us geeks look up to when it comes to sports statistics.


http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

are his lines 100% based on one power ratings, or based on composite, or power rating then subjective adjustment?

i find this time of year power ratings are fairly tight to the point spread........ maybe opportunity? as that shouldn't necessarily be the case. OTOH don't overcomplicate. i love power ratings myself

[gojetsgomoxies]

navy was decent forever... moderate stumble in recent years...... seems back on track today

i don't handicap service academies (running teams. depth chart/recruiting is different) and blockbuster programs (easy to fill gaping holes with amazing talent) the same as other teams.

power ratings seems to have this more like ND 7 point favorite.

[mpaschal34]

Had a feeling Navy would get crushed.

[jjgold]

Wow pounded