Jeff Sagarin had this line last week at -13.5
Sagarin give ND home field advantage 4.0 points, factored in he's got this game at -11 which I think is spot on perfect.
I refer to Jeff Sagarin a lot, for those unfamiliar he's a sports statistician by trade with an advanced degree in mathematics from MIT.
He's created the ELO rating system amongst others. Las Vegas books and line makers utilizes his services often.
I'm a geek, he's a super geek, he's the geek us geeks look up to when it comes to sports statistics.
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm