i have been hitting on trend plays at a decent percentage so far this season. i look for the strongest and most recent. and if you aren't a trend player that is fine. i have heard all the negatives so it would just be repetitive overkill when you post it. thanks.
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Last edited by kingdom; 10-20-19, 10:47 AM. -
Washington is an under play. they are a big home dog this week and the under for teams as a home dog higher than +8 is 9-41 o/u since '13 season. sf also a play as the road favs in this situation are 15-1 ats last 16.
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GL with the action kingComment -
Raiders go into gb as a power rushing team. non-division favorites (packers this week) have struggled against these teams going 3-19-2 ats since '16 and or 0-10-1 last 11 occurences.
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Ravens are 17-3 ats as a road dog since 2013 against teams that avg over 30 passes a game (hawks). i would love this play at +4, but its too expensive so i am gonna tease it with niners.
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Don't let me down, bro. Lol. Playing these three in a teaser.Comment -
not playing the jags cause i hate the line. but favs on road against losing teams post week 5 are 15-3 su and 13-5 ats since 15 season.
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With betpointsComment -
Chargers are sporadic, but they are good on road following a home loss. they are 15-5 ats since 2012 in this spot.
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Lots of great trend information here King... Thanks.
Good luck.Comment -
Falcons are on a bad stretch and aren't playing much defense at all. after losing their last two ats, they are 3-13 ats in next game last 16 occurences. numbers on a big downshift post shanahan.
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some trends are safe to play every time they occur and you will win over time. one is the pats on the road. as brady has aged, they have been more conservative, especially on road. and the running game and defense has become a bigger part of their offense. pats are 11-24-1 under on the road for just a 31% over rate since 2015 season. this trend also gives you the option to bet progressively at that rate.
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lots of useful info. goodluck bro.Comment -
looking at the card, i lean arizona, miami, and the saints. but will only play those 3 in a teaser. gl.Comment -
i dont like the lines on any of these games, but teams that were losers last year and are on a 2 game losing streak get their ass kicked ats. bungles, giants, and lions are qualifiers. i do like the frequency of this trend as it is also good for progressive betting.
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Falcons secondary is a total wreck and looks like they aren't even trying at times. Their pass defense is 31st in the league, only Miami's is worse. I guess they should be motivated for this game but after practicing bad habits all season, can they just turn it on? I don't think so.
If Goff can't throw on this defense, he needs to be benched
With all that said, offense is still very good. Can't go against them at home, I took overComment -
i think ryan turns it over maybe twice. donald is gonna be all over him. having ramsey i think rams are really ready to make a turn. seems like their (falcons) offense has been a lot of garbage time offense. rams are going to definitely need balance on offense to pull it off. i would use gurley out of backfield more and with him and cupp it could really be a nightmare. especially with goff struggling. this coach is supposed to be a genius. lets see how he helps his qb against this bad defense.Falcons secondary is a total wreck and looks like they aren't even trying at times. Their pass defense is 31st in the league, only Miami's is worse. I guess they should be motivated for this game but after practicing bad habits all season, can they just turn it on? I don't think so.
If Goff can't throw on this defense, he needs to be benched
With all that said, offense is still very good. Can't go against them at home, I took overComment -
true. o line looking like world beaters. goff still missing guys though. these gurley limitations are crazy. why not play hard first 2 quarters. limited 3rd, and heavy 4th. don't know why they didn't pick up a cheap vet in offseason. can't be scared to use your running back.Comment -
good week last week. back at it again. chargers lost last week by the hook. this week it may be worth buying the hook after line drop. chargers are 19-8 ats on road coming off a loss.
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no surprise pats are 29-11 ats at home since 2015. browns are in trouble today.
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Falcons are now 3-14 ats after losing last 2 ats. don't expect schaub to change that.
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this is time of year things usually go bad for detroit. teams that were losers last year and are struggling with back 2 back L's this year are 31-54 ats next game.
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Broncos, jets, and giants qualify as strong dogs under this trend. teams that have given up more than 24 at home last week and are dogs the following week are 53-30 ats over last 2 season. jets gave up more than 31 and those teams are 27-10 ats for a 73% cover rate.
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this trend is less common, but saints qualify as large favorites here are 16-2 ats since 2011
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Raiders are 5-15 ats as a road dog in their last 20.Comment -
now for totals. some of these o/u trends are surprising:
the pats are on a 3-14 o/u run as a fav. bill has been trending towards defense as tommy terrific ages well.
bucs are actually 15-4-1 over in last 20 road games. turnover prone and empty stats trying to come back.
broncos are 1-14 o/u last 15 as they just can't score
jags are 1-6 o/u last 7 home as they avg only 13.4 and give up 16.6 (this includes giving up 40 to chiefs in sept)
texans are 1-6 o/u last 7 home as they give up only 17 ppg.Comment -
Ron Rivera is 25-15 as a dog on road. the over is 25-14-1.
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it took tremendous effort for sea to blow this cover. 24-0 lead and give up a 2 pt conversion. kinda wish they had lost the game.Comment -
other than the dolphins being terrible lately, the general trends favor the fish. steelers should win easily, but line may be inflated just enough. Fitz is terrible against the steelers, but while the organization wants to lose he is trying to win and may get a backdoor here.
Home teams against the leagues worst offenses are 8-20-2 ats the last 4 seasons against a team scoring on less than 20% of drives. also appears tomlin plays it safe against these bad teams and doesn't try and run up the score.
Betting System Favoring Miami: Play Against Home favorites (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, with a losing record. (51-21 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)
Coach Mike Tomlin is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season as the coach of PITTSBURGH.Comment
