LAST-MINUTE WRITEUP: Brewers at Nationals WILDCARD

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  • hotcross
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-04-17
    • 7934

    #1
    LAST-MINUTE WRITEUP: Brewers at Nationals WILDCARD
    Tuesday Oct.1 - NL Wild Card Game

    I like Washington to win this game, it is pretty intriguing matchup beyond only looking at the starting pitchers.

    But I'm not placing a wager on this game pre-game. If it is tight, or Brewers leading after a few innings, I would consider taking Washington LIVE only if the opportunity presents itself at significantly lower risk odds than what they are available at pre-game, around -175 (patience and discipline).

    Here are points I've looked at:

    Neither team likes facing the opposing starting pitcher. All-time team batting averages look like this:
    Milwaukee .133 vs Max Scherzer
    Washington .154 vs Brandon Woodruff
    >those are for the players in the starting lineups

    THE WAY NOT TO BET THIS GAME, in my opinion, would be taking Washington first five innings. Scherzer hasn't looked fully himself with a 4.74 ERA in seven outings since returning from a back injury in late August, but the team will have Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg available out of the bullpen should things go wrong early (this sentence is exact wording from a rotisserie site, in the interest of time).

    Another stat to consider is the Nationals are 1-8 W/L in Mr. Scherzer's last 9 starts during Game 1 of a series.
    Furthermore, the Nationals have such a weak history against Brandon Woodruff, who should also be fresher on 8 days of rest since his last outing on Sept.22 in which he only threw 2 innings.

    This will be "all hands on-deck" game for both teams, so unless you have inside access to the coaches and pitching staff, its difficult to say exactly which pitchers will be brought in relief, and when.

    Let's look at hitting lineups quickly. Washington has the edge with an overall .287 batting average for the season, among the players in the starting lineups (not including the pitcher). Milwaukee batters come in with .256 average. Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain have minor injuries reported, but are both in the starting lineup, while Christian Yellich as we know will not play. Washington does not have reported injuries for their position players, other than Catcher Mr. Kurt Suzuki, who is starting the game, despite lingering inflammation in his elbow.

    Recent form: Washington has the clear advantage. They played the past 8 games at home since Sept.23 and WON ALL 8 GAMES. Their fans will be rocking out to "Baby Shark" when Gerardo Parra likely enters the game as a pinch hitter in the late innings.

    Milwaukee played the last 6 games on the road, getting swept by the Colorado Rockies in Denver for the last 3 games, including Extra Innings losses the final 2 games of the season.


    Sorry for the last-minute post before gametime, but I hope this information is helpful to anybody looking to make a late- or-live wager on the Wildcard game tonight.

    GL all
  • goduke
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-17-10
    • 11580

    #2
    Last 7 playoff appearances by Max his team is 0-7
    Comment
    • JMobile
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-21-10
      • 19070

      #3
      So what you're saying is the Dodgers going to win?
      Comment
      • goduke
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-17-10
        • 11580

        #4
        Max is so overrated in the playoffs.
        Comment
        • hotcross
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 08-04-17
          • 7934

          #5
          Good lawd, that Live line is already +150 Washington after one inning

          Not biting just yet
          Comment
          • hotcross
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-04-17
            • 7934

            #6
            +220 after the Thames homerun 3-0 score

            OK took a bite 1 unit to win 2.20
            Comment
            • goduke
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-17-10
              • 11580

              #7
              Good luck but I don’t see the comeback. I think nats 2nd half is a better option if you can get it live
              Comment
              • goduke
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-17-10
                • 11580

                #8
                Brewers building the lead and then nats will score a few but come up short
                Comment
                • hotcross
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-04-17
                  • 7934

                  #9
                  I hear you, happy with the odds now +220 Washington to win the game sounds a lot better than -175
                  Comment
                  • goduke
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-17-10
                    • 11580

                    #10
                    Originally posted by hotcross
                    I hear you, happy with the odds now +220 Washington to win the game sounds a lot better than -175
                    Yes 220 good but -132 isn’t bad for nats 2nd half
                    Comment
                    • hotcross
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 08-04-17
                      • 7934

                      #11
                      no Baby Shark tonight, but writeup was pretty accurate I'd say

                      clutch young man Juan Soto
                      Comment
                      • Tanko
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-19-09
                        • 5140

                        #12
                        Originally posted by hotcross
                        no Baby Shark tonight, but writeup was pretty accurate I'd say

                        clutch young man Juan Soto
                        Agreed.... HotX.
                        Look forward to the Dodgers/Nats write up.
                        Comment
                        • icon
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-09-18
                          • 3404

                          #13
                          This was a great writeup. Love how he mentions he wouldn't lay the juice on the home team pre-game but would wait until the game started to look for a solid live betting opportunity.

                          I'll be paying more attention to hotcross and look forward to reading what he has to say about other games.
                          Comment
                          • hawkeye 16
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-07-17
                            • 3553

                            #14
                            Great write-up! It's the kind of stuff that should be on this forum. Win or lose.
                            Comment
                            • Mike Huntertz
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-19-09
                              • 11204

                              #15
                              Nice write.
                              Comment
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