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UFC 242 Best Bets 👊
UFC 242 best bets: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Dustin Poirier
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The UFC's six-week International Tour lands in Abu Dhabi this week, as undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov will return from his suspension to defend his lightweight title against Dustin Poirier. Poirier won the interim title in Nurmagomedov's absence, making this a title unification bout.
The main card begins at a special time of 2 p.m. ET on pay-per-view, which fans can purchase here. The prelims are on ESPN+ and FX at noon, with the early prelims on ESPN+ at 10:15 a.m.
Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, as of Sept. 5.
Lightweight title matchup: Khabib Nurmagomedov (-410) vs. interim champion Dustin Poirier (+320)
Tale Of The Tape
KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV DUSTIN POIRIER Last Fight Weight Class Lightweight Lightweight Current Age 30 30 Height 69.0 70.0 Reach 73.0 70.0 Stance Southpaw Orthodox Analyzed Minutes 230 153 Standup striking offense Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) 11:2 2:0 Distance Knockdown Rate 1.9% 1.9% Head Jab Accuracy 38% 33% Head Power Accuracy 43% 29% Total Standup Strike Ratio 1.1 1.1 Striking defense Total Head Strike Defense 69% 77% Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") 99% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch 0.42 1.31 Takedown Accuracy 38% 45% Advances per Takedown/Top Control 0.5 1.0 Opponent Takedown Attempts 49 13 Takedown Defense 69% 85% Share of Total Ground Time in Control 58% 97% Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground 0.45 0.11
Defending lightweight champion Nurmagomedov isn't just undefeated in his professional MMA career: He hasn't lost a single round when a UFC fight has gone to the scorecards for a decision. His grappling is the best in the division and among the most dominant ever in the UFC.
Being able to chase opponents to the ground and keep them there means he can win any round by virtually eliminating his opponent's offense. It also sometimes sets up a submission finish or TKO by ground strikes. He attempts more than one takedown for every minute he's on his feet in a fight, often relentlessly following up unsuccessful attempts to eventually drag opponents down. While his standup striking stats aren't exemplary, they're not bad, and he has survived against dangerous strikers partly because no one can get aggressive when the takedown threat is so constant.
Enter Poirier, a dual-threat finisher who has spent nearly a decade working his way from a WEC featherweight into the UFC lightweight interim champion. Poirier's hands have finished most of his UFC fights, as his aggressive style pours on accurate punches that can damage opponents in any round. But he's also managed to avoid facing dominant wrestlers with solid chins. And that profile is exactly what Nurmagomedov will be bringing to Abu Dhabi in front of what will likely be a semi-home-field crowd who won't be booing a slow grinder of a round.
The key is Poirier's transition game. He's shown a few slick submissions, but his defensive wrestling is barely above average. And inviting such a natural and fluid grappler as Nurmagomedov to the ground is unlikely to result in a Hail Mary submission. Poirier will certainly have a chance at the start of each round to try to truly test the chin of the incumbent champ, but Nurmagomedov's chain wrestling and oppressive ground control should win any rounds he chooses, even if Poirier has the stamina and submission defense to avoid a finish.
E+ recommends: The pick is Nurmagomedov, but there's little value in the expected closing line of nearly 5-1 when Poirier still has a puncher's chance. Khabib will likely be a popular (and worthy) parlay anchor for the night.
Other best bet on the card
Across the card, the matchups aren't ideal either from a data visibility standpoint or in terms of value given current prices. But if we're looking for a potential upset, consider Joanne Calderwood against Andrea Lee. You could see Calderwood close above +200 come fight night, and she will be the best striker Lee has faced to date. Calderwood averages the highest striking pace from a distance of all fighters on the card with sufficient UFC experience to compare, and normally outworks her opponents by 40% on volume. She could end up the busier fighter in an otherwise close fight.
E+ recommends: Small play on Joanne Calderwood, and Fight Goes the Distance for parlays.
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