[bettingman6]

The general belief on this board is that the later lines are more efficient and that it's better to bet on early lines. Although I believe this is the case in basketball, I do not believe this is the case in football.

The prediction tracker website lists how various systems- including the opening spread- do against the closing spread.

Here are the ATS records for the opening spread over the last 3 years in college football

2018 .496

2017 .511

2016 .508


Rather surprisingly, NCAAF opening spreads have actually been over .500 against the closing spread in 2 of the last 3 years. If you average the 3 years together, the opening spread has been .505 against the closing spread over the last 3 years.

Here are the ATS records for the opening spread over the last 3 years in the NFL
NFL

2018 .528


2017 .529


2016 .497


The opening spread in the NFL has been 51.8% against the closing spread over the last 3 years. In fact, you would have beaten the 11/10 book juice in both 2017 and 2018 if you had bet late on every single NFL game, and done nothing more than bet the opposite way the line had moved.

Even though the opening line's .505 ATS in CFB is probably just statistical noise, the opening line's .518 in the NFL seems like it might be statistically significant and indicate that NFL lines really do become less efficient as the week goes on.


Even if the opening and closing lines in football are equally efficient, there are reasons to wait to bet. One reason is because of key numbers. Waiting to see if an underdog line goes from +6.5 to +7 is worth risking that it might actually fall to +6. Another reason is because you want to know what injury news comes out.



Unfortunately, predictiontracker only includes this year's basketball results. The opening line has been .490 vs the closing line in NCAAM and .476 against the closing line in the NBA. This indicates that you should bet early in basketball. (Although I assume the opening line's .476 ATS in the NBA is a one year fluke and it's not that bad most years.)