[Gaze73]

I don't know how to explain such line movements. People pounded the soft opening line and then suddenly changed their minds?

[Gaze73]

Also here's proof that Pinnacle is clueless: They opened Ruzomberok at 1.48, 10 minutes later it was hammered into 1.4. Why? Because the road team is 0-0-9 with 3:23 goal stats. It doesn't take a PhD in statistics to see the road team is horrible.

[Alfa1234]

Also here's proof that Pinnacle is clueless: They opened Ruzomberok at 1.48, 10 minutes later it was hammered into 1.4. Why? Because the road team is 0-0-9 with 3:23 goal stats. It doesn't take a PhD in statistics to see the road team is horrible.

'Hammering' in this case means 2 limit bets of about 500€ each. There is no manipulation going on. Nothing to do with being clueless, if you would use Pinnacle regularly you would see moves like these in non-big markets happen about 10 000 times a day. Their algo simply adjusts the odd

[Gaze73]

'Hammering' in this case means 2 limit bets of about 500€ each. There is no manipulation going on. Nothing to do with being clueless, if you would use Pinnacle regularly you would see moves like these in non-big markets happen about 10 000 times a day. Their algo simply adjusts the odd

It doesn't matter. What matter is that their odds maker thought 1.48 was a fair post-margin line, and they got punished immediately for such a blatant mistake anyone could see. If they were sharper they would've opened at 1.4.

[jjgold]

no

relax kid

[grease lightnin]

It doesn't matter. What matter is that their odds maker thought 1.48 was a fair post-margin line, and they got punished immediately for such a blatant mistake anyone could see. If they were sharper they would've opened at 1.4.

Punished? Lol

[Gaze73]

Punished? Lol

Yeah, 16.67% move right after they opened the line means their lines suck. There was no inside info or injury reports, just basic stats and they failed even at that. Final result - 4:0. Nice job mr trader. Some favs are just free money.

[pavyracer]

Maybe the starting lineups influence the line movement. Some big names are not in the starting lineup due to last minute injuries or rotation..

[Alfa1234]

Question Gaze:

Say I placed 2 limit bets on Moravce +0.5 at 3.5 and the Ruzomberok line had moved in the opposite direction from say 1.4 to 1.48. Would that have made Pinnacle brilliant because they opened the line correctly?

[Poisec]

Happens pretty often on low liquidity markets.

[leovegas]

I don't know how to explain such line movements. People pounded the soft opening line and then suddenly changed their minds?

Do you have proof you breathe air? Would you be willing to risk your life spending a minute in a vacuum chamber so that you become 100% sure of that fact?

Why do you have to explain everything?

People bet money for lots of reasons. Why does it have to bother you?

[Gaze73]

Question Gaze:

Say I placed 2 limit bets on Moravce +0.5 at 3.5 and the Ruzomberok line had moved in the opposite direction from say 1.4 to 1.48. Would that have made Pinnacle brilliant because they opened the line correctly?

No. Because sharps would hammer it back to 1.4 after your bets. In fact I'm surprised it didn't drop to 1.35 against such a hopeless dog. I know this high roller and you know where he makes most of his money? On big soccer favs.

[Gaze73]

Do you have proof you breathe air? Would you be willing to risk your life spending a minute in a vacuum chamber so that you become 100% sure of that fact?

Why do you have to explain everything?

People bet money for lots of reasons. Why does it have to bother you?

Stupid post. I'm trying to make a living with this, so I need to know what moves the prices, why, and what are the results of it. This particular example is what I call the rollercoaster pattern, and it's quite rare actually. Usually once a price drops it stays there or close to it. This could easily be someone spreading rumors on twitter that some players are injured, then the rumors turn out to be false and the price goes back where it started.

[Gaze73]

BTW the team in the OP is Chester, they drifted up to 2.8 and are about to win the game, 4:1 score so far. So the people who hammered it first were right.

[Alfa1234]

BTW the team in the OP is Chester, they drifted up to 2.8 and are about to win the game, 4:1 score so far. So the people who hammered it first were right.

I'm surprised you are not in the Bahamas on some beach spending your billions on cocktails and girls if you can simply identify a bunch of winners all the time just by looking at some odds movements.

[BuckyOne]

Could you make the bet at Pinny on the value side? They will hang lines you cannot get a bet confirmed on in real life. People that clone their lines suffer and then they laugh their butt off!

[pretentiousGuy]

'Hammering' in this case means 2 limit bets of about 500€ each.

That's a lot of money for mr.gaze!

[cashin81]

Id say the ludogorets game yesterday was manipulated... That game...

[cashin81]

Gaze is alright.. The mans trying..

[Gaze73]

I'm surprised you are not in the Bahamas on some beach spending your billions on cocktails and girls if you can simply identify a bunch of winners all the time just by looking at some odds movements.

That's the plan, this is the year I finally go pro and it will be smooth sailing I think.

[danshan11]

the opening line is not for efficiency, now the closing line is efficient

Opening line is to start the ball rolling and very often is moved one way or another as books try and anticipate what will create some action on the line. Now the closing line is truly efficient. Books overall have an edge and have enough bets to overcome variance so they truly do not care about the result of one game, they are more concerned with setting lines that get action and they let them sharpen up by themselves

[Gaze73]

Id say the ludogorets game yesterday was manipulated... That game...

I was on Vereya +3.5, seemed like a crazy line. Ludogorets was definitely trying, 10 shots on target, dominated the field literally every single minute, but sometimes a goal just doesn't go in.

[pretentiousGuy]

That's the plan, this is the year I finally go pro and it will be smooth sailing I think.

Atta boy!

[danshan11]

I'm surprised you are not in the Bahamas on some beach spending your billions on cocktails and girls if you can simply identify a bunch of winners all the time just by looking at some odds movements.

Gaze you are concerning yourself with the wrong things, create some lines and start finding true betting opportunities. Edge is not a trick or black magic, edge is bet at +110 and it closes at +100, that is true edge, anything else you do is called recreation

[Gaze73]

the opening line is not for efficiency, now the closing line is efficient

Opening line is to start the ball rolling and very often is moved one way or another as books try and anticipate what will create some action on the line. Now the closing line is truly efficient.

Pinnacle themselves said in one of the articles that although the closing line is efficient on AVERAGE, they can certainly be wrong on individual games, e.g Ruzomberok.

[Alfa1234]

Pinnacle themselves said in one of the articles that although the closing line is efficient on AVERAGE, they can certainly be wrong on individual games, e.g Ruzomberok.

Why do you think it was wrong? Because they won? That makes no sense.

[Gaze73]

Why do you think it was wrong? Because they won? That makes no sense.

If that game was played 1000 times they would've won 900.

[danshan11]

do you bet 1 game on average? that is the problem with the line is wrong argument. WE dont bet one game we bet over and over and that takes us right back to the average efficient line. Ask yourself this question, how would you know if a line is off?

LIne Bias is real, say a line opens at -8 and in reality the gods KNOW it should be -4 it is very possible because it opened at -8 two things happen
avg bettors still bet on the team on their tshirt at home, they dont care really about line accuracy and this causes support for 8
pro bettors think that the line is probably not efficient and bet it but the thing is they usually have BR rules and so they might push it down but probably not all the way to 4, they also in general believe the line is usually pretty close and if it moved from 8 to 6 they might lay off assuming they are missing something or something in the bettor psych
so yes this is one cause of not all lines being efficient. but on average and in general lines are efficient, quit believing lines are not efficient because 1 is wrong.

if 1 is wrong everyday all day, how do YOU (meaning Gaze) identify it. Please remember the result of the actual game does not indicate anything with the line.

do the skills test
find 10 games that do not have lines out yet and create your own fair line for those, if you are very close to those, you are starting to learn how to cap.

[jjgold]

wasting your time

if odds moved worked nobody would work

[danshan11]

lots of people in all business types are always looking for magic formula to not do the work.
ie trends, line movement, touts, socks on a horse, a dog that takes a crap before the race, and whatever else they can imagine gives them a free buck.
the only way to win is long days, low pay, lots of spreadsheets, some data science course refreshers, and more.

its a job and honestly it does not pay well, we have discussed before if you truly have the skills you MIGHT make more money using those skills doing something else.

[Alfa1234]

lots of people in all business types are always looking for magic formula to not do the work.
ie trends, line movement, touts, socks on a horse, a dog that takes a crap before the race, and whatever else they can imagine gives them a free buck.
the only way to win is long days, low pay, lots of spreadsheets, some data science course refreshers, and more.

its a job and honestly it does not pay well, we have discussed before if you truly have the skills you MIGHT make more money using those skills doing something else.

It's 100% a job but why do you assume it does not pay well? Define "well"? It depends on your point of view. Jez Bezos would probably think it does not pay well. An average Bangladeshian factory worker would kill for the pay. It can absolutely pay very well even in 1st world terms.

[pavyracer]

There are hundreds of reasons a line moves. Trying to find the magic wand to tell you what it means is pointless. Instead concentrate on picking winners. Most people who pick winners can beat line movements.

[danshan11]

It's 100% a job but why do you assume it does not pay well? Define "well"? It depends on your point of view. Jez Bezos would probably think it does not pay well. An average Bangladeshian factory worker would kill for the pay. It can absolutely pay very well even in 1st world terms.

pay well is perspective, I think for the skill level required in MOST instances, there are higher paying jobs that desire those skills in the US. I also think 99.9% of people that even if they had the tools just do not have the required bankroll to make a significant income using that bankroll correctly. I do not know where you are from but I do know that different parts of the world are very different, in the US most people think 90-100K is not enough to feed a family or to live comfortably. You also are not counting vacation time, pensions, 401k matches and other profit sources of a real job. a 100k a year job is worth a hell of a lot more with benefits than a 100K a year gamblers, 100k to 100k is not apples to apples its apples to oranges.

[sweethook]

i would say so , gl

[Alfa1234]

pay well is perspective, I think for the skill level required in MOST instances, there are higher paying jobs that desire those skills in the US. I also think 99.9% of people that even if they had the tools just do not have the required bankroll to make a significant income using that bankroll correctly. I do not know where you are from but I do know that different parts of the world are very different, in the US most people think 90-100K is not enough to feed a family or to live comfortably. You also are not counting vacation time, pensions, 401k matches and other profit sources of a real job. a 100k a year job is worth a hell of a lot more with benefits than a 100K a year gamblers, 100k to 100k is not apples to apples its apples to oranges.

Median household income in US is 59k...seems like a lot of people would disagree with that 90-100k number.

I'm in Western Europe.

You are also forgetting some other benefits of gambling, like choosing your own hours and not having to work every day.