Slot machine ? For smart people

[ddittie]

I live in a state where slot edge is not required to be public knowledge. I’ve been trying to find a way to figure out how to calculate the house edge on a slot machine. I came across one where you go look at their Pay lines but I was wondering if the following would work:
If you put X amount of money into the slot, and log every winning spin and the amount and then count the amount of spins you did in total.
Would (X-amt won)/spins give me a rough estimate of the house edge?

[Ebumdude]

https://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2017/11/slot-machine-edge.html

[ddittie]

I don't see how that answers my question at all. I already read that page twice but read it a third time again.
It is calculating it by simulating a slot machine with code. Am I supposed to goto the casino and plug in a code, after spending 30 days writing a program to figure out how to hack into the machine? lol

[eaglesfan371]

You can't. The odds of hitting a certain payline are not known and are internally changeable. For example the GM of a casino could set a 1000x payout on a machine to a 1 in 100,000 spin odds or 1 in 1,000, resulting in a much different house edge.

Only way you could determine such is by playing a game for 1000+ spins or something similar, recording the payback but even then your variance will be high, confidence interval wide, and suffer great losses.

[ddittie]

You can't. The odds of hitting a certain payline are not known and are internally changeable. For example the GM of a casino could set a 1000x payout on a machine to a 1 in 100,000 spin odds or 1 in 1,000, resulting in a much different house edge.

Only way you could determine such is by playing a game for 1000+ spins or something similar, recording the payback but even then your variance will be high, confidence interval wide, and suffer great losses.

I understand there will be a variance. but lets say I did play for 1000 spins, is the formula I mentioned correct?

[ddittie]

we have slot machines that must hit by X. I know the formula to find the target point but need to figure out the house edge, id like to be somewhat close with 5%

[KVB]

Well, just how many spins were you thinking of giving some particular machine a go before declaring a valid number?

Look at it this way, you want a rough estimate?

It's 5-10%. Smaller value slots will be more like 7-12% while higher value machines will be more like 4-6%.

So much can depend on machine itself but these are pretty standard large house numbers. Why not just ask what the payout is on the machine, or the return, or the how loose it is.

When they tell you 94% payback, the other 6% is essentially the house edge.

[ddittie]

They won't tell you the house edge. That's what I'm getting at. The house edge is not known, they don't have to report it and they have no state minimums on payback. Essentially its a rigged ass system.

This ain't vegas, its more than 15% i know for a fact. i did get lucky one time and saw someone with a machine broken down and the attendent put a key and the slot restarted and showed all the stats like money in and money out. i didnt get to see what it was set at, and i forgot to save what it was. but essentially i know that there was 180-185k in and 150-155k out. So, it's between 13-17%, BUT, that is an entirely different slot machine and another casino in the same town.

[KVB]

They won't tell you the house edge. That's what I'm getting at. The house edge is not known, they don't have to report it and they have no state minimums on payback. Essentially its a rigged ass system.

This ain't vegas, its more than 15% i know for a fact. i did get lucky one time and saw someone with a machine broken down and the attendent put a key and the slot restarted and showed all the stats like money in and money out. i didnt get to see what it was set at, and i forgot to save what it was. but essentially i know that there was 180-185k in and 150-155k out. So, it's between 13-17%, BUT, that is an entirely different slot machine and another casino in the same town.

Even with your numbers, the sample size is too small to even guess the edge.

Believe it or not.

Shit can be long term streaky.

But you're right, of course it's rigged for a shitty payout. Especially if it's not Vegas or a competitive environment.

[ddittie]

my buddy plays slots a lot. i dont, i just watch him and drink. he showed me slots that have a must pay by 5000, and at the time one particular was at 4,800ish. I said then thats about to hit, and played 100. i forgot to log the rise. then, the next day it was higher and the next higher, got to 4889, told him to play it, he put in 140 and i logged the rise. I forgot to go in the next day to log what it was at, but we went 3 days later and it had been hit. the last number they were at was around 4889 or so. Which based on my calculations is around the target point of 4889.70-4914.77. So, I'm just trying to figure out the most optimal time to play it. I guess more context was needed so I typed all that shit up

[sjm5122]

I make slot math, we provide casinos with multiple payout %s on every game. It is up to the operator which one they choose to use. Generally the RTP %s are anywhere from 85% to 96%. As for your method of figuring out the RTP of a given machine, you will never be able to play enough spins to determine, even if you tracked it accurately.

[sjm5122]

Also the progressive you referenced above is an MHP or must hit by progressive. It is possible to gain a small edge by looking for games that are very close to the strike, but typically you are only gaining about 1% or maybe 2% edge,on a machine that probably has a 90% RTP, and even still you are mostly guessing without being able to know the math and what paytable the operator setup on that machine.

[KVB]

Just when those machines, including video poker, become "due" for the progressive, they go that extra mile.

Just when you think it's best to wait for it to grow, it hits early three times.

[eaglesfan371]

my buddy plays slots a lot. i dont, i just watch him and drink. he showed me slots that have a must pay by 5000, and at the time one particular was at 4,800ish. I said then thats about to hit, and played 100. i forgot to log the rise. then, the next day it was higher and the next higher, got to 4889, told him to play it, he put in 140 and i logged the rise. I forgot to go in the next day to log what it was at, but we went 3 days later and it had been hit. the last number they were at was around 4889 or so. Which based on my calculations is around the target point of 4889.70-4914.77. So, I'm just trying to figure out the most optimal time to play it. I guess more context was needed so I typed all that shit up

Often times those progressives that "must hit by" slots or promotions slow down immensely when close to the payout number, thus ruining any advantage. For example my local casino has a must hit by 100k random jackpot that starts at 50k. It takes 1-2 days to reach 70k, 3-4 more days to reach 80k, 1-2 weeks more to hit 90k and then 1-2 weeks more to 95k.

[pavyracer]

Isn't it boring sitting in front of a slot machine for hours to win?

I'd rather put money on a game and watch it win.

[gauchojake]

The title says slot machine and smart people which typically don't go together

[Sam Odom]

Fishhead has the sharpest slot mind in forumville

wish he would chime in

[MinnesotaFats]

https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/odds/

Maybe by just asking the dyration between jackpots you could make an assumption but you'll likely never get the true program.

I'd like to think the casino would gladly discuss jackpots hit on said machine...

[Optional]

If the state does not require them to disclose the return to player setting, then you can probably safely assume it's crappy.


There used to be a huge billboard for Seagulls Club near Surfers Paradise advertising that they had a 98.5% return to player on slots.

[hawkeye 16]

The title says slot machine and smart people which typically don't go together

This.

[newton0038]

we have slot machines that must hit by X. I know the formula to find the target point but need to figure out the house edge, id like to be somewhat close with 5%

If you have slots that MUST HIT BY "x than you have illegal machines as the randomness is out of the equation and the RNG is being manually manipulated. Steer clear of the bandits

[ddittie]

The title says slot machine and smart people which typically don't go together

[ddittie]

I'm going to be tracking them for awhile. I will go there everyday and see the general area they all hit by. It'll be a fun side project.

[ddittie]

Often times those progressives that "must hit by" slots or promotions slow down immensely when close to the payout number, thus ruining any advantage. For example my local casino has a must hit by 100k random jackpot that starts at 50k. It takes 1-2 days to reach 70k, 3-4 more days to reach 80k, 1-2 weeks more to hit 90k and then 1-2 weeks more to 95k.

Right, but the initial days aren't relevant. All that matters is the rate of rise when it gets close to the target value.
If the target value is 4900, and you can play 1 dollar for 3.5 hours to lose 500, but raise the overall jackpot to 30 pts, or 30 pts past the target, you're investing 500 to win 4900. There are 11 machines that go by this system. If they all seem to hit around the same target value over a long period of time, I believe it would be beneficial to play them.
If the casino is being crooked by having huge cut, who is to say they aren't also rigging the slots so their 'friends' can win when they tell them too.

[ddittie]

Went back today. Machines have a major and a mini must hit by. When I arrived, the mini was at 491.59. He had $88 in the machine and was betting .88 cents. About every $2 in bets he received a .01 increase. I asked if I could watch him hit the mini but he was a douche and asked me not to, then when I went far away, as far as I could get where I could see the jackpot (at least 150 feet away) I continued to watch. I wish I logged the time I arrived. I drank 2 beers while waiting, so I'd guess I was watching for approx 25-30 mins. While watching him from afar, security of other higher ups started gathering behind him and standing in a circle and talking. I only had $100 in my pocket, so I decided to go home and grab some cash just in case this guy got up. I doubted he would but the security noticed me watching the whole time and started talking on the phone so I figured it was better to leave and come back. I got back approx 20 mins later and he was gone and the mini had hit. When I left it was at 495.76 and as I passed him he was talking to a lady watching him saying he thinks it would hit around 496 and that he was slowing down. He was hitting a lot of bonuses and his $80 cycled thru a ton. So he got lucky there, but I was too far away to see if he put more in. I can run numbers and get an approximation on how many bets per hour he did and his bet size and get within a dollar of where he hit, which helps a lot.

[ddittie]

lol, totally came here to update y'all and got into the dick measuring brady contest.

Anyhow, I've been logging the slots all week, and one got close to hitting... so I decided to play it, as I started to get impatient waiting for others to play it.

So, its guaranteed to hit by 500, and it was at about 481 when I started playing last night. I put $100 in and got it to 484 before I quit. It kept recycling thru until I was down $30 and called it a night. I had been playing for 3 hours and was betting the minimum the entire time.

This morning, I woke up and headed there and it had only gone up $2 to 486. I decided to take the risk as last time I watched a man got to 491 and hit at 496 off the same $100.
I was in for a total of $230 and had it up to 490 when this happened: (attached pictures).

https://imgur.com/a/Qd3LJBV

So, I actually got up over $500 on this bonus spin. The jackpot was at 493-494 I think at this time. I ended up putting 400-500 back in to win the 498, when it finally hit.

[ddittie]

one addition is i did change up the bets once i got to over 700. My friend also came and put in 100 and was betting max and near max, which the machine ate rather quickly and did not give the same gains as I was receiving from betting the min and having it recycled continuously.

[ddittie]

altogether I invested about 12 hours total, between driving there and logging and inputting the data, and the 8 hours sitting and betting min on the machine. ended with $500 profit.

[Auto Donk]

I live in a state where slot edge is not required to be public knowledge. I’ve been trying to find a way to figure out how to calculate the house edge on a slot machine. I came across one where you go look at their Pay lines but I was wondering if the following would work:
If you put X amount of money into the slot, and log every winning spin and the amount and then count the amount of spins you did in total.
Would (X-amt won)/spins give me a rough estimate of the house edge?

all you need is right here:

[ddittie]

all you need is right here:

ha, casinos paying 18k in my town are slim to nada :P nice post tho